The first frame of November is looking like a sluggish one when it comes to new wide releases, so this week’s report focuses mostly on the updated trends of October’s strong slate ahead.
November 3, 2023
Opening Weekend Range: $3M-$8M
Domestic Total Range: $10M-$27M
LONG RANGE PROS:
- A24 has a strong reputation for delivering sleeper, prestigious box office hits. This biopic from director Sofia Coppola has already garnered strong early reviews with a 92 percent approval rating from 38 Rotten Tomatoes critics, making it a candidate to attract adult audiences in early November.
- Taylor Swift’s The Eras Tour remains on pace for a historic debut next weekend with models continuing to point toward a $100 million-plus opening frame. Pre-sales remain on pace with some of 2023’s biggest openers.
- Meanwhile, both Killers of the Flower Moon and Five Nights at Freddy’s are performing on the high end of expected pre-sale trends, leading to slight increases in their forecast ranges as breakout potential for each continues to solidify.
LONG RANGE CONS:
- The weekend of November 3 is light on major releases, a rarity for the industry as the first weekend of the month traditionally kicks off the holiday movie season. That gap this year is due to no studio moving in to take advantage of the date left behind by Dune: Part Two‘s strike-induced delay to 2024.
- While Priscilla could be a relatively solid player that weekend, it remains to be seen how wide the releases of STX and Lionsgate’s The Marsh King’s Daughter and Bleecker Street’s What Happens Later end up being.
- If October ends up as strong as expected, holdovers will further impact those openers early next month. While Freddy’s is likely to drop sharply coming off its Halloween weekend debut, holdover power for Flower Moon and Eras Tour—the latter in its final weekend of engagement—will need to prop up the market before Disney and Marvel Studios open The Marvels on November 10.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 10/5/23)
|Release Date||Title||3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range||Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week||Domestic Total Low/High Range||Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week||Distributor|
|10/13/2023||Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour||$105,000,000 – $140,000,000||$156,000,000 – $226,000,000||AMC Theatres / Variance Films|
|10/20/2023||Killers of the Flower Moon||$29,000,000 – $38,000,000||+17%||$97,000,000 – $141,000,000||+17%||Paramount Pictures / Apple Studios|
|10/20/2023||Soul Mates||Faith Media Distribution|
|10/27/2023||After Death||Angel Studios|
|10/27/2023||Five Nights at Freddy’s||$35,000,000 – $55,000,000||+25%||$65,000,000 – $118,000,000||+25%||Universal Pictures / Blumhouse|
|10/27/2023||Inspector Sun||Viva Pictures|
|11/3/2023||The Marsh King’s Daughter||STX / Lionsgate / Roadside Attractions|
|11/3/2023||Priscilla||$3,000,000 – $8,000,000||$10,000,000 – $27,000,000||A24|
|11/3/2023||What Happens Later||Bleecker Street|
Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.
Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.