This week’s preliminary tracking report takes a glance at the first weekend of October and 2022’s fourth quarter as the release calendar begins to pick up more steam.
- Amsterdam boasts a star-studded ensemble cast led by Christian Bale, Margot Robbie, and many others under the helm of filmmaker David O. Russell, whose prior credits (American Hustle, Silver Linings Playbook, The Fighter) should be strong selling points for adult audiences.
The film’s move to an early October release provides fresh content after a dry August and September, and any potential award season prestige would go a step further toward helping potential. Initial modeling, despite minimal relevant pandemic-era comparison points, is similar to Death of the Nile.
- Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile should benefit from the drought of family-friendly movies in theaters since late July when Minions and DC League of Super-Pets were fresh. Early trailer traction and social sentiment is positively aligned with films like Super-Pets, The Bad Guys, and Clifford the Big Red Dog.
The live-action adaptation is drawing positive early interest thanks to its appeal across likely parental and kiddie audiences, while the presence of pop start Shawn Mendes voicing the title character aids potential to draw young female audiences.
- It remains to be seen how wide the appeal for a period dramedy like Amsterdam will translate to audiences, particularly given Disney’s mixed history with marketing 20th Century Studios titles over the past year. This is also something of another test for the return of adult-driven prestige titles during fall since that segment of the industry has recovered more slowly than other genres and demos.
- Although based on a beloved book, Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile isn’t an immediate candidate to draw the kind of four-quadrant blockbuster audience of a Minions-type film in the middle of fall like theaters would ideally hope for after such an absence of those kinds of movies. Still, the film has a considerably high ceiling if word of mouth clicks — especially with minimal competition until November and December.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 9/8/22)
|Release Date||Title||3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range||Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week||Domestic Total Low/High Range||Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week||Distributor|
|9/16/2022||God’s Country||IFC Films|
|9/16/2022||Running the Bases||UP2U Films|
|9/16/2022||See How They Run||Searchlight Pictures|
|9/16/2022||The Silent Twins||Focus Features|
|9/16/2022||The Woman King||$16,000,000 – $21,000,000||$42,000,000 – $67,000,000||Sony / TriStar Pictures|
|9/23/2022||Avatar (2022 Re-Release)||$10,000,000 – $20,000,000||$20,000,000 – $50,000,000||Disney / 20th Century Studios|
|9/23/2022||Don’t Worry Darling||$13,000,000 – $18,000,000||+19%||$35,000,000 – $55,000,000||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|9/30/2022||Bros||$10,000,000 – $15,000,000||$34,000,000 – $59,000,000||Universal Pictures|
|9/30/2022||Smile||$15,000,000 – $20,000,000||$35,000,000 – $65,000,000||Paramount Pictures|
|10/7/2022||Amsterdam||$10,000,000 – $15,000,000||$35,000,000 – $60,000,000||Disney / 20th Century Studios|
|10/7/2022||Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile||$18,000,000 – $23,000,000||$66,000,000 – $95,000,000||Sony / Columbia Pictures|
All above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.
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