Long Range Box Office Forecast: Black Adam and Ticket to Paradise

Photo Credits: Warner Bros. ("Black Adam"); Universal ("Ticket to Paradise")

Please note that a revised forecast for Smile was incorrectly listed in the original publication of this report. It has been corrected in the chart below.

Friday, September 23: Late October will bring the first major superhero film since summer and a star-driven romantic comedy in efforts to continue the fall season’s rebounding box office. First forecasts and and updated tracking for other upcoming releases are below.

PROS:

  • Black Adam marks Dwayne Johnson’s first major superhero film in the lead and has been hyped up by the media mogul himself via his widespread social media base for several years. Early tracking models are comparable to Hobbs & Shaw (the actor’s career-best debut so far with $60 million) and well ahead of Morbius ($39 million earlier this year).

    As the first big comic book title to open since July’s Thor: Love and Thunder, and DC’s first live-action offering since The Batman in March, the film’s awareness and social imprints are already charting highly one month in advance. Men of all ages will be the target crowd, but Johnson’s appeal to a diverse audience should provide additional upside. PLF play will certainly amp up box office earnings.

    The film also has a three-week window before Black Panther: Wakanda Forever opens.
  • George Clooney and Julia Roberts will aim to bring out the 35-plus date night crowd in Ticket to Paradise, a film that has already compared well in some territories to the international start of The Lost City (which opened to $30.5 million in North America).

    While a more muted opening should be expected given the domestic market competition, staying power into November could be a much different story if reception is positive given the lack of major competition in that corridor.

CONS:

  • Trailer reactions to Black Adam have been inconsistent throughout the year with sentiment scores falling short of the comic book movie realm’s A-tier buzz-generators and brother-in-arms DC pic Shazam! back in 2019.

    Word of mouth will be key not just for staying power, but also for convincing the non-die hard comic fans to turn out on opening weekend — which is notable given the relative obscurity of this character outside the uninitiated.
  • Ticket to Paradise will counter-program in some respects, but Black Adam will still command a healthy draw among Johnson’s older audience that may cross over with Ticket‘s own wheelhouse initially.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 9/22/22)

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
9/27/2022 Mobile Suit Gundam Cucuruz Doan’s Island           Crunchyroll / Sony
9/30/2022 Bros $10,000,000 – $15,000,000   $34,000,000 – $59,000,000   3,200 Universal Pictures
9/30/2022 Smile $15,000,000 – $20,000,000   $38,000,000 – $65,000,000   3,400 Paramount Pictures
10/7/2022 Amsterdam $10,000,000 – $15,000,000   $35,000,000 – $60,000,000     Disney / 20th Century Studios
10/7/2022 Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile $18,000,000 – $23,000,000   $66,000,000 – $95,000,000     Sony / Columbia Pictures
10/14/2022 Halloween Ends $35,000,000 – $45,000,000   $65,000,000 – $84,000,000     Universal Pictures
10/21/2022 The Banshees of Inisherin           Disney / Searchlight Pictures
10/21/2022 Black Adam $55,000,000 – $70,000,000   $135,000,000- $175,000,000     Warner Bros. Pictures
10/21/2022 Ticket to Paradise $12,000,000 – $17,000,000   $40,000,000 – $65,000,000     Universal Pictures

All above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.

Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections are available to clients. For more information on forecasts, pricing, and availability, please contact us.