This week’s update takes an early look at two releases slated for mid-August debuts, providing counter-programming options in the final weeks of summer movie season.
As usual, current forecast ranges for other upcoming films—such as Haunted Mansion, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, and Meg 2: The Trench—are below.
Warner Bros. Pictures
August 18, 2023 (WIDE)
Opening Weekend Range: $12M-$17M
Domestic Total Range: $27M-$55M
- The DC brand has a modest strength of its own, and Blue Beetle being an unfamiliar-to-the-masses character might make this film feel fresh among audiences.
- Appeal to Latin American families could be notable, particularly with the back half of the summer and early fall seeing a relative lack of youth-friendly content hitting the big screen.
- With the comic book era not being the novelty it once was, audiences have become increasingly selective about which superhero films they spend money on in theaters. To that end, early tracking models for this title are trailing Shazam! Fury of the Gods by a fair margin.
- Competition from mid-to-late summer family-friendly holdovers—like Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem and Haunted Mansion—plus action films like Meg 2 and Gran Turismo, could diminish potential in the waning days of summer.
August 18, 2023 (WIDE)
Opening Weekend Range: $18M-$28M
Domestic Total Range: $45M-$80M
- A strong voice ensemble led by Jamie Foxx and Will Ferrell lends itself well to this R-rated comedy, hitting theaters in late summer—when films like Sausage Party and Good Boys have taken off at the box office in previous years.
- Universal has a reputable history of turning adult-centric content into mid-range success, as in the case of the recent Cocaine Bear. Early social trends are also somewhat more encouraging than those of Violent Night at the same point before release.
- Depending on the severity of fictionalized animal abuse portrayed in the film, audience appeal and eventual reception is somewhat difficult to predict. A lean on male audiences is also expected.
- On the subject of Cocaine Bear, Strays hasn’t quite reached the pre-release social metrics of that sleeper hit.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 7/20/23)
|Release Date||Title||3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range||Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week||5-Day (WTFSS) Opening Low/High Range||Domestic Total Low/High Range||Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week||Distributor|
|7/28/2023||The First Slam Dunk||GKIDS|
|7/28/2023||Haunted Mansion||$22,000,000 – $32,000,000||$73,000,000 – $113,000,000||Walt Disney Pictures|
|7/28/2023||Talk to Me||A24|
|8/2/2023||Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem||$27,000,000 – $36,000,000||$37,000,000 – $49,000,000||$101,000,000 – $145,000,000||Paramount Pictures|
|8/4/2023||Meg 2: The Trench||$26,000,000 – $35,000,000||$70,000,000 – $105,000,000||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|8/11/2023||Gran Turismo||$15,000,000 – $20,000,000||$35,000,000 – $55,000,000||Sony Pictures|
|8/11/2023||The Last Voyage of the Demeter||$5,000,000 – $10,000,000||$14,000,000 – $28,000,000||Universal Pictures|
|8/18/2023||Back on the Strip||Luminosity Entertainment|
|8/18/2023||Blue Beetle||$12,000,000 – $17,000,000||$27,000,000 – $55,000,000||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|8/18/2023||The Hill||Briarcliff Entertainment|
|8/18/2023||Strays||$18,000,000 – $28,000,000||$45,000,000 – $80,000,000||Universal Pictures|
Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.
Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.
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