Long Range Box Office Forecast: Can Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves Reverse the Franchise’s Prior Big Screen Missteps?

Photo Credits: Paramount ("Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves")

This week’s report takes an early look at the final major studio release of a busy March, as well as other forecast updates in the chart below.

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves
Paramount
March 31, 2023

PROS:

  • Hasbro’s iconic role-playing game remains incredibly popular among fans across multiple generations.
  • A star-driven cast led by Chris Pine and Michelle Rodriguez, combined with a self-referential, comedic take on the property could help attract audiences outside the target fan base.
  • As the final live-action tentpole of spring before early May, the film has room to stretch its legs if audience reception is positive.
  • Early trailer reactions were widely positive with sentiment scores comparing favorably to the likes of the recent Jumanji films, a tone that marketing has continued to drum up.

CONS:

  • Unfortunately, there may still be some stigma attached to the brand outside of loyal fans — in large part because of 2000’s box office bomb, Dungeons & Dragons, which earned just $15.4 million domestically and $34 million worldwide after being hyped as a major franchise-starter.
  • This film opens at the tail-end of a month jam-packed with male-driven films, so its reliance upon a broader general audience is even more important — especially looking ahead to family competition from The Super Mario Bros. Movie opening just five days later.
  • Initial social media impact hasn’t gained the amount of momentum once expected, though the marketing department still has some time to amend that trend.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 3/3/23)

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Distributor
3/10/2023 65 $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 -16% $18,000,000 – $38,000,000 -34% Sony / Columbia Pictures
3/10/2023 Champions $4,000,000 – $7,000,000 -8% $14,000,000 – $28,000,000 -20% Focus Features
3/10/2023 Scream VI $35,000,000 – $42,000,000 +9% $75,000,000 – $97,000,000   Paramount Pictures
3/17/2023 Inside         Focus Features
3/17/2023 Moving On         Roadside Attractions
3/17/2023 Shazam! Fury of the Gods $37,000,000 – $46,000,000   $90,000,000 – $120,000,000   Warner Bros. Pictures
3/24/2023 John Wick: Chapter 4 $49,000,000 – $64,000,000 +10% $130,000,000 – $182,000,000 +5% Lionsgate
3/31/2023 Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves $23,000,000 – $30,000,000   $52,000,000 – $90,000,000   Paramount Pictures

Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.

Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.

For more information about this article or to report any corrections, please contact the author.

Photo Credits: Paramount ("Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves")
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