This week’s report closes out the month of April with a look ahead at two of the last major studio wide releases slated to hit theaters before the early summer movie season kicks off in May.
Challengers
United Artists Releasing
April 26, 2024
Opening Weekend Range: $7M-$12M
Domestic Total Range: $18M-$35M
PROS:
- Zendaya is the main draw for Challengers given her significant appeal among the young generation of moviegoers, particularly women, which this film hopes to bring out.
- Fans of director Luca Guadagnino could also help drive some interest among the prestige and art house audiences.
CONS:
- Despite a long-lead marketing presence with trailer releases dating back to early last year, awareness may be less of a concern than intent, as this film’s sexually charged narrative could be challenging to develop into a mainstream hit despite its young cast.
- Opening on the final week before summer movie season begins has historically been disadvantageous for many releases.
Unsung Hero
Lionsgate
April 26, 2024
Opening Weekend Range: $7M-$14M
Domestic Total Range: $20M-$46M
PROS:
- Lionsgate and Kingdom Story Company have found box office success in the past with faith-based hits such as Jesus Revolution and I Can Only Imagine.
- Based on a popular Christian pop singer, Rebecca St. James, this film could attract a similar audience.
CONS:
- There is a ceiling on box office potential for some faith-based films without a mainstream hook that help them transcend beyond the core audience.
- Opening the final week before summer movie begins has historically been disadvantageous for many releases.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2024’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 3/28/24)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range | Domestic Total Low/High Range | Distributor |
| 4/5/2024 | The First Omen | $8,000,000 – $13,000,000 | $20,000,000 – $34,400,000 | 20th Century Studios |
| 4/5/2024 | Monkey Man | $13,000,000 – $21,000,000 | $37,000,000 – $63,000,000 | Universal Pictures |
| 4/10/2024 | SUGA│Agust D TOUR “D-DAY” the MOVIE | BTS SUGA | ||
| 4/12/2024 | Civil War | $15,000,000 – $23,000,000 | $42,000,000 – $72,000,000 | A24 |
| 4/12/2024 | Don’t Tell Mom the Babysitter’s Dead (2024) | Iconic Events Releasing | ||
| 4/12/2024 | The Ministry of Ungentlemenly Warfare | $6,000,000 – $10,000,000 | $12,000,000 – $34,000,000 | Lionsgate |
| 4/12/2024 | Shrek 2 (20th Anniversary Re-Release) | Universal Pictures | ||
| 4/13/2024 | SUGA│Agust D TOUR “D-DAY” the MOVIE | BTS SUGA | ||
| 4/19/2024 | Abigail | $12,000,000 – $22,000,000 | $28,000,000 – $66,000,000 | Universal Pictures |
| 4/19/2024 | Sasquatch Sunset | Bleecker Street | ||
| 4/19/2024 | Spy x Family Code: White | Sony / Crunchyroll | ||
| 4/19/2024 | Villains Inc. | Purdie Distribution | ||
| 4/19/2024 | Wildfire: The Legend of the Cherokee Ghost Horse | Hannover House | ||
| 4/24/2024 | aespa: WORLD TOUR | Trafalgar Releasing | ||
| 4/26/2024 | Challengers | $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 | $18,000,000 – $35,000,000 | United Artists Releasing |
| 4/26/2024 | Nowhere Special | Cohen Media Group | ||
| 4/26/2024 | Unsung Hero | $7,000,000 – $14,000,000 | $20,000,000 – $46,000,000 | Lionsgate / Kingdom Story Company |
Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.
Additional opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.
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