This week’s long range tracking update welcomes the addition of summer 2022’s final major animated release as it hopes to draw kids and fans alike through the end of the season.
As always, current tracking ranges for other upcoming titles are listed in the chart below. Preliminary pinpoint forecasts for Thor: Love and Thunder are also included.
As the only other major update this week, the MCU tentpole’s forecasts are fluid as pre-sales deviate from recent Marvel patterns. This is generally presumed to be partly a result of the more crowded market Love and Thunder is entering relative to any other MCU film since before 2020, as well as the film’s more general audience-friendly, comedic selling points — a trait shared by other Marvel pics like the Guardians of the Galaxy and Ant-Man series, alongside Thor: Ragnarok.
A late pick-up in Thor‘s advance sales is projected to occur next week as models continue to indicate what will likely be the second highest domestic opening of 2022 so far.
DC League of Super-Pets
July 29, 2022
- Superman, Batman, and the DC Comics gallery of characters should appeal well to both adults and kids with star voices Dwayne Johnson, Kevin Hart, Kate McKinnon, John Krasinski, and others fronting the film.
- Social and trailer activity are trending strongly thanks to the IP drawing attention from comic book fans, ahead of The Secret Life of Pets 2 and not dissimilar to the performance rates of The LEGO Movie and The LEGO Batman Movie, which debuted to $69.1 million and $53 million in 2014 and 2017, respectively.
- Combined with strong comedic elements advertised in early marketing so far, a trait often found in sleeper/standout family-friendly films, some breakout potential for Super-Pets is notable at this stage.
- Opening four weeks after Minions: The Rise of Gru, and with no major family competition coming after it until October, the film has a clear runway to draw late summer and early fall family audiences.
- Outside of The LEGO Movie and The LEGO Batman Movie, Warner Animation has had a mixed recent history at the box office with films like Storks, Smallfoot, and The LEGO Ninjago Movie performing modestly.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 6/30/22)
|Release Date||Title||3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range||3-Day (FSS) Pinpoint Opening Forecast||Domestic Total Low/High Range||Domestic Total Pinpoint Forecast||Distributor|
|7/8/2022||Thor: Love and Thunder||$140,000,000 – $167,000,000||$155,000,000||$345,000,000 – $420,000,000||$395,000,000||Disney / Marvel Studios|
|7/15/2022||Marcel the Shell With Shoes On||A24|
|7/15/2022||Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris||Focus Features|
|7/15/2022||Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank||$9,000,000 – $14,000,000||$28,000,000 – $45,000,000||Paramount Pictures|
|7/15/2022||Where the Crawdads Sing||$17,000,000 – $26,000,000||$48,000,000 – $85,000,000||Sony / 3000 Pictures|
|7/22/2022||Nope||$45,000,000 – $65,000,000||$110,000,000 – $190,000,000||Universal Pictures|
|7/29/2022||DC League of Super-Pets||$40,000,000 – $60,000,000||$120,000,000 – $210,000,000||Warner Bros. Pictures|
All above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.
Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections are available to clients. For more information on forecasts, pricing, and availability, please contact us.