The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | May 29 – 31, 2026
Week 22 | May 29 – 31, 2026
1. Backrooms
A24 | NEW
Opening Weekend Range: $45M – $55M
Showtime Market Share: 17%
Pros
- A24’s atmospheric horror chiller Backrooms is poised to be the box office surprise of the year, making massive strides in our pre-release tracking. Our tracking comps initially indicated a breakthrough performance, with buzz suggesting an opening weekend on par with 2024’s Longlegs ($22M) and 2023’s Civil War ($25M). Our opening weekend expectations have more than doubled since, as exhibitors have scrambled to add showtimes to meet the demand of what will likely become A24’s biggest opener of all time. Comps at the start of this indicated a debut along the lines of a major studio horror tentpole like last year’s Weapons ($43M) and Final Destination Bloodlines ($51M), leading us to settle into a $45M – $55M opening weekend range for Backrooms. The trend continued to rise on the Wednesday ahead of release, leading us to believe Backrooms could potentially outperform our forecast and reach up to the $65M mark, comparable to Scream 7 ($63M), and Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 ($64M).
Cons
- Directed by young YouTube phenom Kane Parsons (age 20), Backrooms is piggybacking off the intricate creepypasta mythology he developed over several years with the eponymous yellow world. After an estimated 337 million views, Parsons’ videos are driving much of the interest from the same crowd that made Iron Lung and Obsession smash hits. We have no doubt Backrooms will be a hit, but whether it can crossover beyond the Gen Z crowd into a general audience will only be revealed in subsequent weeks.
2. Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu
Lucasfilm | Week 2
Weekend Range: $30M – $35M
Showtime Market Share: 18%
Pros
- Lucasfilm’s The Mandalorian and Grogu got off to an ignominious low for the modern Disney iteration of the franchise, earning $81.67M for the 3-Day and $98M for the 4-Day. That said, it also cost significantly less than the previous five theatricals, and stands to gain from positive word-of-mouth (88% audience score, “A-” CinemaScore, 5 out of 5 stars for parents and kids on PostTrak). Mandalorian should see a drop similar to Solo‘s -65% sophomore stumble in its second weekend, but could be saved by family audiences not served by either of the Gen Z-driven horror titles set to dominate the weekend.
Cons
Here is a look at all the Disney-era Star Wars theatricals during their sophomore frame…
- The Force Awakens (2015) – $149.2M (-39.8%)
- Rogue One (2016) – $64M (-58.7%)
- The Rise of Skywalker (2019) – $72.38M (-59.2%)
- Solo (2018) – $29.39M (-65.2%)
- The Last Jedi (2017) – $71.56M (-67.5%)
Big dives have been par for the course, but the opening grosses have been generally large enough to sustain the blow. With Mandalorian and Grogu, the expectations are less four-quadrant than previous releases because this is a younger-targeted product meant to drive merch and cross-promotion with Disney+ streaming.
3. Obsession
Focus Features | Week 3
Weekend Range: $17M – $22M
Showtime Market Share: 8%
Pros
- After a +39% jump in its sophomore weekend ($23.96M), Focus Features’ mini-miracle Obsession is expected to post another incredible hold, and we’re expecting the title to once again best its opening weekend tally ($17.19M) for Frame 3. It has solidified its movie-of-the-moment status and isn’t expected to slow down significantly. A performance between $18M and $20M should be in line with what we’re seeing from Obsession in its third week.
Cons
- While 26-year-old writer/director Curry Barker has solidified his status as the next major voice in horror, with a Texas Chainsaw Massacre reimagining in the works, Backrooms could cancel out some business for Obsession since both films are courting the same audience within the same genre. With a reported $1M budget, there is no negative slant to be had for this title, though, which is now simply printing money for Focus parent Universal while giving production shingle Blumhouse a big win.
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