This week’s early tracking rundown highlights the year’s first of four planned DC Extended Universe films from Warner Bros. Pictures. Preliminary forecasts for other upcoming titles are available in the chart, per usual.
Shazam! Fury of the Gods
March 17, 2023
- The first Shazam! was a mid-range comic adaptation success with $53.5 million in its domestic opening and strong reception from both critics (90 percent) and audiences (82 percent) on Rotten Tomatoes. It ultimately earned $140.5 million in North America and over $366 million globally on a modest-for-superhero-movies $100 million production budget.
- Early social buzz for Fury of the Gods is enthusiastic about the return of Zachary Levi and the cast from the first film, as well the addition of Helen Mirren, Lucy Liu, and others. Though not quite up to the levels of Black Adam ahead of its release, key metric comps at this stage include Uncharted, Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore, and Morbius.
- If this sequel lives up to the family-friendly accessibility of its predecessor, another solid run could be expected during the spring break corridor.
- Although well-received, the first film was not as leggy at the box office as other popular superhero origin stories, though its mid-to-late life cycle was notably cut short by Avengers: Endgame.
In this case, Fury goes up against male-driven competition with the second frame of Creed III, followed by John Wick: Chapter 4 in weekend two, Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves in weekend three, and a family-driven tentpole in The Super Mario Bros. Movie in weekend four.
- Trailer sentiment measurements aren’t quite up to the level of those of the first film at the same point before release, though marketing and early reviews could still have some say in that over the next few weeks.
- With some consumer confusion, particularly outside die hard fans, about the state of the DC cinematic universe as it prepares to transition into a new era under new leadership, some casual moviegoer interest may wane for this sequel.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 2/17/23)
|Release Date||Title||3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range||Domestic Total Low/High Range||Distributor|
|2/21/2023||Untitled Crunchyroll Film||Crunchyroll / Sony|
|2/24/2023||Cocaine Bear||$7,000,000 – $12,000,000||$18,000,000 – $36,000,000||Universal Pictures|
|2/24/2023||Jesus Revolution||$4,000,000 – $10,000,000||$13,000,000 – $42,000,000||Lionsgate / Kingdom Story Company|
|2/24/2023||My Happy Ending||Roadside Attractions|
|2/24/2023||Mummies (Limited)||Warner Bros. Pictures|
|3/3/2023||Creed III||$25,000,000 – $33,000,000||$71,000,000 – $95,000,000||MGM|
|3/3/2023||Demon Slayer: To the Swordsmith Village||$6,000,000 – $11,000,000||$10,000,000 – $21,000,000||Crunchyroll / Sony|
|3/3/2023||Operation Fortune: Ruse De Guerre||Lionsgate|
|3/10/2023||65||$8,000,000 – $13,000,000||$26,000,000 – $47,000,000||Sony / Columbia Pictures|
|3/10/2023||Champions||$4,000,000 – $9,000,000||$14,000,000 – $44,000,000||Focus Features|
|3/10/2023||Scream VI||$29,000,000 – $38,000,000||$65,000,000 – $92,000,000||Paramount Pictures|
|3/17/2023||Moving On||Roadside Attractions|
|3/17/2023||Shazam! Fury of the Gods||$43,000,000 – $52,000,000||$101,000,000 – $136,000,000||Warner Bros. Pictures|
Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.
Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.
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