Long Range Box Office Forecast: Domestic Market Approaches $500M YTD as The Batman, Uncharted, & Dog Hope to Provide Late Winter Momentum

This week’s report is a condensed one with no wide releases currently set for the March 11 frame, in large part because studios are avoiding as much spillover demand for March 4’s The Batman as they possibly can.

Still, as the slow-but-improved-from-2021 start to the new year marches into the second half of February, the domestic market is preparing for another much needed uptick in business. North American grosses will reach the $500 million threshold this weekend, a figure that wasn’t surpassed until the middle of May in 2021. Pre-pandemic comparisons remain moot, though, as the same threshold was hit in the middle of January 2020 — two months before the world changed.

Following this current frame’s opening of Death on the Nile, Marry Me, and Blacklight, Presidents Day weekend will hope to attract moviegoers in the post-Super Bowl portion of the winter calendar. The holiday will be advantageous for bringing out families to the Channing Tatum-led Dog, although parents and adult women remain a tough consumer base to predict during the waning pandemic. They’ll be key to that film’s potential, which remains a candidate to enjoy a long runway at the box office.

Sony’s Uncharted adaptation remains the marquee release of February. With no reviews yet available, we’re somewhat more cautious in expectations for opening weekend and beyond, although forecasts haven’t shifted significantly at this point.

February 25 will then see the wide releases of Cyrano and Studio 666, followed by the highly anticipated debut of The Batman. Tickets for the DC film’s IMAX Fan Events on March 1 went on sale earlier this week, followed by the beginning of sales for remaining shows (starting with special Wednesday previews) on Thursday morning. We’ll be adjusting forecasts as needed in the weeks ahead as buzz evolves.

Should The Batman live up to expectations, the domestic market should again find its footing in the run up to spring and summer. Despite taking a month and a half to reach $500 million, the $1 billion mark could be achievable by the middle or end of March barring any significant release delays or changes before then.

Next week’s long range report will resume normal coverage with wide releases back on the docket, including Guy Ritchie and STX’s Operation Fortune: Ruse De Guerre, Focus Features’ The Outfit, and Lionsgate’s The Unbreakable Boy each slated to open March 18.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022 Calendar
(as of 2/11/22)

All above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.

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