Long Range Box Office Forecast: Domestic Market Approaches $500M YTD as The Batman, Uncharted, & Dog Hope to Provide Late Winter Momentum

Photo Credits: Sony / Columbia ("Uncharted"); Warner Bros. ("The Batman"); MGM ("Dog")

This week’s report is a condensed one with no wide releases currently set for the March 11 frame, in large part because studios are avoiding as much spillover demand for March 4’s The Batman as they possibly can.

Still, as the slow-but-improved-from-2021 start to the new year marches into the second half of February, the domestic market is preparing for another much needed uptick in business. North American grosses will reach the $500 million threshold this weekend, a figure that wasn’t surpassed until the middle of May in 2021. Pre-pandemic comparisons remain moot, though, as the same threshold was hit in the middle of January 2020 — two months before the world changed.

Following this current frame’s opening of Death on the Nile, Marry Me, and Blacklight, Presidents Day weekend will hope to attract moviegoers in the post-Super Bowl portion of the winter calendar. The holiday will be advantageous for bringing out families to the Channing Tatum-led Dog, although parents and adult women remain a tough consumer base to predict during the waning pandemic. They’ll be key to that film’s potential, which remains a candidate to enjoy a long runway at the box office.

Sony’s Uncharted adaptation remains the marquee release of February. With no reviews yet available, we’re somewhat more cautious in expectations for opening weekend and beyond, although forecasts haven’t shifted significantly at this point.

February 25 will then see the wide releases of Cyrano and Studio 666, followed by the highly anticipated debut of The Batman. Tickets for the DC film’s IMAX Fan Events on March 1 went on sale earlier this week, followed by the beginning of sales for remaining shows (starting with special Wednesday previews) on Thursday morning. We’ll be adjusting forecasts as needed in the weeks ahead as buzz evolves.

Should The Batman live up to expectations, the domestic market should again find its footing in the run up to spring and summer. Despite taking a month and a half to reach $500 million, the $1 billion mark could be achievable by the middle or end of March barring any significant release delays or changes before then.

Next week’s long range report will resume normal coverage with wide releases back on the docket, including Guy Ritchie and STX’s Operation Fortune: Ruse De Guerre, Focus Features’ The Outfit, and Lionsgate’s The Unbreakable Boy each slated to open March 18.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022 Calendar
(as of 2/11/22)

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Domestic Total Low/High Range Estimated Location Count Distributor
2/18/2022 Dog $5,000,000 – $15,000,000 $20,000,000 – $65,000,000 3,100 MGM
2/18/2022 Uncharted $25,000,000 – $35,000,000 $60,000,000 – $85,000,000 4,000 Sony Pictures / Columbia
2/25/2022 Cyrano (Wide Expansion)     n/a United Artists Releasing
2/25/2022 Studio 666     n/a Open Road Films
3/4/2022 The Batman $135,000,000 – $185,000,000 $340,000,000 – $540,000,000   Warner Bros. Pictures
3/11/2022 Untitled Universal Musical Event       Universal Pictures
3/18/2022 Operation Fortune: Ruse De Guerre       STXfilms
3/18/2022 The Outfit       Focus Features
3/18/2022 The Unbreakable Boy       Lionsgate / Kingdom Story Company
3/25/2022 The Lost City       Paramount Pictures
4/1/2022 The Contractor       STXfilms
4/1/2022 Morbius       Sony Pictures / Columbia
4/8/2022 Ambulance       Universal Pictures
4/8/2022 Untitled Searchlight       Walt Disney Pictures
4/8/2022 Untitled Universal Event Film 2022 2       Universal Pictures
4/8/2022 Sonic the Hedgehog 2       Paramount Pictures
4/15/2022 Eiffel       Blue Fox Entertainment
4/15/2022 Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore       Warner Bros. Pictures
4/15/2022 Father Stu       Sony Pictures / Columbia
4/15/2022 Untitled WB Event Film 2022 1       Warner Bros. Pictures
4/22/2022 The Bad Guys       Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation
4/22/2022 The Northman       Focus Features
4/22/2022 The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent       Lionsgate
4/29/2022 65       Sony / Columbia Pictures
5/6/2022 Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness       Disney / Marvel Studios
5/13/2022 Firestarter       Universal Pictures
5/20/2022 DC Super Pets       Warner Bros. Pictures
5/20/2022 Downton Abbey: A New Era       Focus Features
5/27/2022 Bob’s Burgers       Disney / 20th Century Studios
5/27/2022 Top Gun Maverick       Paramount Pictures
6/3/2022 Untitled WB Event Film 2022 2       Warner Bros. Pictures
6/10/2022 Jurassic World: Dominion       Universal Pictures
6/10/2022 Untitled Searchlight       Disney / Searchlight
6/17/2022 Lightyear       Disney / Pixar
6/17/2022 Oh Hell No       Sony Pictures
6/24/2022 The Black Phone       Universal Pictures
6/24/2022 Elvis       Warner Bros. Pictures
6/24/2022 Untitled Blumhouse Project       Universal Pictures
6/29/2022 Shotgun Wedding       Lionsgate
7/1/2022 Minions: The Rise of Gru       Universal Pictures
7/8/2022 Thor: Love and Thunder       Disney / Marvel Studios
7/15/2022 Bed Rest       STXfilms
7/15/2022 Bullet Train       Sony Pictures
7/15/2022 Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris       Focus Features
7/22/2022 Blazing Samurai       Paramount Pictures
7/22/2022 Nope       Universal Pictures
7/22/2022 Where the Crawdads Sing       Sony / 3000 Pictures
7/29/2022 Black Adam       Warner Bros. Pictures
8/5/2022 Easter Sunday       Universal Pictures
8/5/2022 Secret Headquarters       Paramount Pictures
8/5/2022 Untitled WB Event Film 2022 3       Warner Bros. Pictures
8/12/2022 Untitled Searchlight       Disney / Searchlight
8/12/2022 Man from Toronto       Sony Pictures / Columbia
8/19/2022 Beast       Universal Pictures
8/26/2022 The Bride       Sony Pictures / Columbia
8/26/2022 Samaritan       United Artists Releasing
9/2/2022 (no releases scheduled)        
9/9/2022 Salem’s Lot       Warner Bros. / New Line
9/16/2022 Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret.       Lionsgate
9/16/2022 Distant       Universal Pictures
9/16/2022 The Woman King       Sony / TriStar Pictures
9/23/2022 Don’t Worry Darling       Warner Bros. Pictures
9/23/2022 Puss In Boots: The Last Wish       Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation
9/23/2022 Untitled 20th Century 2022 3       Disney / 20th Century Studios
9/30/2022 Bros       Universal Pictures
10/7/2022 Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Part One)       Sony Pictures
10/14/2022 Halloween Ends       Universal Pictures
10/14/2022 White Bird: A Wonder Story       Lionsgate
10/21/2022 Ticket to Paradise       Universal Pictures
10/21/2022 Untitled Paramount       Paramount Pictures
10/28/2022 The Devil’s Light       Lionsgate
11/4/2022 The Flash       Warner Bros. Pictures
11/4/2022 Untitled Bee Gees       Paramount Pictures
11/4/2022 Untitled David O. Russell       Disney / 20th Century Studios
11/11/2022 Black Panther: Wakanda Forever       Disney / Marvel Studios
11/18/2022 Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile       Sony / Columbia Pictures
11/18/2022 Untitled WB Event Film 2022 4       Warner Bros. Pictures
11/18/2022 She Said       Universal Pictures
11/18/2022 Thirteen Lives       MGM / United Artists Releasing
11/23/2022 Creed III       MGM
11/23/2022 The Fabelmans       Universal Pictures
11/23/2022 Strange World       Walt Disney Pictures
12/2/2022 Violent Night       Universal Pictures
12/9/2022 (no releases scheduled)        
12/16/2022 Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom       Warner Bros. Pictures
12/21/2022 Avatar 2       Disney / 20th Century Studios
12/21/2022 Mario       Universal Pictures
12/23/2022 I Wanna Dance With Somebody       Sony Pictures / TriStar Pictures
12/23/2022 Untitled 20th Century 2022 6       Disney / 20th Century Studios
12/30/2022 (no releases scheduled)        

All above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.

Pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections are available exclusively to Boxoffice PRO clients. For more information on forecasts, pricing, and availability, please contact us.

Photo Credits: Sony / Columbia ("Uncharted"); Warner Bros. ("The Batman"); MGM ("Dog")
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