Long Range Box Office Forecast: EXPEND4BLES

Photo Credit: Yana Blajeva © 2023 Lionsgate

This week’s update continues an early look into September’s key theatrical releases with early forecasts for the fourth film in the Expendables franchise.



September 22, 2023 (WIDE)

Opening Weekend Range: $13M-$18M

Domestic Total Range: $31M-$45M


  • The return of Jason Statham, Sylvester Stallone, and Dolph Lundgren—plus the addition to the franchise of Megan Fox, Tony Ja, and others—could help maintain interest from the core older male audience who drove the prior three films at the box office.
  • Competition from action films will be relatively light in late September and throughout October.


  • This sequel is nine years removed from the third film, which already saw domestic revenues decline 54 percent to $39.3 million from 2012’s second Expendables entry ($85 million).
  • Unlike prior installments, this new film doesn’t boast the kind of marquee action star ensemble (Schwarzenegger, Ford, Gibson, Snipes, Banderas, Van Damme, Willis, et al.) that served as the commercial hook across the first three chapters.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 8/24/23)

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Distributor
9/1/2023 The Equalizer 3 $27,000,000 – $34,000,000 +7% $69,000,000 – $93,500,000 +7% Sony / Columbia Pictures
9/8/2023 My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 $8,000,000 – $13,000,000 -15% $24,000,000 – $43,000,000 -15% Focus Features
9/8/2023 The Nun II $30,000,000 – $45,000,000   $70,000,000 – $97,000,000   Warner Bros. Pictures
9/15/2023 A Haunting in Venice $11,000,000 – $16,000,000   $37,000,000 – $57,000,000   Disney / 20th Century Studios
9/15/2023 Amerikatsi         Variance Films / Everest Films
9/15/2023 Camp Hideout         Roadside Attractions
9/15/2023 Dumb Money (Platform LA / NY)         Sony Pictures / Columbia
9/22/2023 Barbie (IMAX Release)         Warner Bros. Pictures
9/22/2023 Dumb Money (Limited Expansion)         Sony Pictures / Columbia
9/22/2023 Expend4bles $13,000,000 – $18,000,000   $31,000,000 – $45,000,000   Lionsgate

Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.

Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.

Photo Credit: Yana Blajeva © 2023 Lionsgate

News Stories