Early summer box office outlooks continue to take shape with the first public projections of Universal’s Fast X on deck in this week’s report.
Additionally, tracking updates for Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 and other upcoming films are listed in the table below.
Fast X
Universal Pictures
May 19, 2023
PROS:
- Across ten prior films, the franchise has amassed $1.86 billion domestically and $6.6 billion worldwide over the past 21 years, becoming a staple of Hollywood tentpoles that has developed an evolving generational audience.
- Following recent trailer releases, social chatter indicates fans are most excited for the introduction of Jason Momoa as this film’s lead antagonist, the continued ensemble cast expansion led by Vin Diesel and Michelle Rodriguez, and the promise of a two-part finale to the Fast saga beginning with this film.
- Opening two weeks after Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 and one week before Memorial Day weekend gives Fast X plenty of runaway to avoid cannibalized box office against films aiming at the same target audience, while presenting the chance for a soft holiday-driven drop during its sophomore frame.
CONS:
- Diminished returns have set in for the long-running brand in the eight years since Furious 7 saw the franchise peak with a $147.2 million domestic opening and $353 million total (part of $1.5 billion globally).
That film’s standard-bearing success benefited from broadening the Fast audience to include more casual moviegoers who were interested in seeing Paul Walker’s final performance after his tragically fatal car crash in 2013. The film paid tribute to his character and gave closure to several preceding franchise storylines.
- Since Furious 7, the series has seen domestic openings decline by 52 percent to $70 million with F9‘s 2021 release (after The Fate of the Furious pulled $98.8 million on Easter weekend in 2017). Notably, F9 may not be a perfect comparison in terms of opening and/or staying power due to the recovering nature of the mid-pandemic marketplace at the time.
- With The Little Mermaid opening in its second frame, followed by Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and The Boogeyman one week after that, Fast X‘s premium screen availability will be only maximized for one week.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 4/21/23)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Distributor |
| 4/28/2023 | Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret. | $15,000,000 – $20,000,000 | -14% | $50,000,000 – $75,000,000 | -14% | Lionsgate |
| 4/28/2023 | Big George Foreman: The Miraculous Story of the Once and Future Heavyweight Champion of the World | $8,000,000 – $13,000,000 | -10% | $24,900,000 – $46,400,000 | -10% | Sony / AFFIRM Films |
| 4/28/2023 | Polite Society | Focus Features | ||||
| 4/28/2023 | Sisu | Lionsgate | ||||
| 5/5/2023 | Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3 | $110,000,000 – $135,000,000 | -6% | $264,000,000 – $351,000,000 | -6% | Disney / Marvel Studios |
| 5/5/2023 | Love Again | $3,000,000 – $8,000,000 | $13,000,000 – $32,000,000 | Sony / Screen Gems | ||
| 5/6/2023 | UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo (Moderate) | Iconic Events Releasing | ||||
| 5/12/2023 | Book Club 2 – The Next Chapter | $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 | $30,000,000 – $49,000,000 | Focus Features | ||
| 5/12/2023 | Fool’s Paradise | Roadside Attractions | ||||
| 5/12/2023 | Hypnotic | Ketchup Entertainment | ||||
| 5/12/2023 | Knights of the Zodiac | $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 | $11,000,000 – $25,000,000 | Sony Pictures | ||
| 5/12/2023 | Rally Road Racers | Viva Pictures | ||||
| 5/19/2023 | Fast X | $65,000,000 – $75,000,000 | NEW | $146,000,000 – $186,000,000 | NEW | Universal Pictures |
Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.
Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.
For more information about this article or to report any corrections, please contact the author.
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