Long Range Box Office Forecast: House Party, A Man Called Otto, and Plane

Photo Credits: Warner Bros. ("House Party"); Sony / Columbia ("A Man Called Otto"); Lionsgate ("Plane")

This week’s report takes an early look at the second frame of January 2023, currently slated with three major studio films.

PROS:

  • House Party is a remake of the 1990 cult classic led by Kid ‘n Play, this time with NBA superstar LeBron James on board as a producer, that could have minor sleeper potential for an underserved audience.
  • A Man Called Otto hopes to buck the trend of recent adult-driven dramas with Tom Hanks leading an adaptation of the popular book. Marketing’s light-hearted slant and positive reception from industry screenings offer some encouragement at this stage.
  • Plane will aim for the older male action fans who have come to represent the bulk of recent Gerard Butler movies, not unlike Liam Neeson’s lean into that corner of the genre.

CONS:

  • Early social footprints for House Party are underwhelming as marketing has yet to make much of an impression. If the prior week’s M3GAN hits optimistic expectations, that could further diminish young audience interest in this remake.
  • As mentioned, adult audiences have come back to theaters, but dramas in particular have a hard time recovering compared to higher profile films. A Man Called Otto has that recent history to overcome despite looking like the type of film that might have been (and still could be) a solid mid-range performer before the pandemic, ala The Upside remake.
  • It’s likely that Avatar: The Way of Water will still be controlling most premium screens in mid-January, so Plane‘s path to success as an action film will have to rely on Butler’s appeal and counter-programming potential.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 12/16/22)

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Distributor
12/21/2022 Puss In Boots: The Last Wish $16,000,000 – $25,000,000 +6% $109,000,000 – $174,000,000 +6% Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation
12/21/2022 The Whale (Expansion; Platform on Dec. 9)         A24
12/23/2022 Babylon $6,000,000 – $12,000,000 +7% $27,000,000 – $52,000,000 +7% Paramount Pictures
12/23/2022 I Wanna Dance With Somebody $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 -11% $45,000,000 – $82,800,000 -39% Sony Pictures / TriStar Pictures
12/23/2022 Women Talking (Platform/Limited)         United Artists Releasing
12/30/2022 A Man Called Otto (LA / NY Platform)         Sony Pictures / Columbia
1/6/2023 M3GAN $20,000,000 – $35,000,000   $49,000,000 – $77,000,000   Universal Pictures
1/6/2023 A Man Called Otto (Limited)         Sony Pictures / Columbia
1/6/2023 Women Talking (Wide)         United Artists Releasing
1/13/2023 The Devil Conspiracy         Third Day Productions
1/13/2023 House Party $4,000,000 – $9,000,000   $10,000,000 – $25,000,000   Warner Bros. Pictures
1/13/2023 A Man Called Otto (Wide Expansion) $9,000,000 – $14,000,000   $30,000,000 – $60,000,000   Sony Pictures / Columbia
1/13/2023 Plane $6,000,000 – $11,000,000   $15,000,000 – $35,000,000   Lionsgate

Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.

Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients. For more information on forecasts and pricing, please contact us.

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