Fifteen years after its last installment, the Indiana Jones franchise returns to theaters on June 30 with Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny. Sharing a release date with the film is Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken, the latest from animation studio DreamWorks. Early analysis and forecasts for those two films, as well as the latest forecasting updates on June’s releases, are below.
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Disney / Lucasfilm
June 30, 2023 (WIDE)
Opening Weekend Range: $81M-$111M
Domestic Total Range: $225M-$380M
PROS:
- The prospect of a new chapter in the Indiana Jones saga has ignited fan excitement in the years since Lucasfilm announced they’d pursue the film; Harrison Ford returning to one of his most iconic roles is a big plus, as is the presence of director James Mangold (Ford v Ferrari, Logan) behind the camera.
- Social media chatter has been mostly positive throughout the movie’s long production history.
- A wave of nostalgia helped Top Gun: Maverick surpass $126M over the first three days of its Memorial Day weekend opening last year; if Dial of Destiny manages to appeal to adult audiences, it could get a similar bump.
- If those adult audiences show up with families in tow, as happened with Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull in 2008, Dial of Destiny could end up more back-loaded than the typical franchise film.
- The fourth of July comes the Tuesday following Dial‘s release—meaning Disney could, essentially, be viewing the Friday-Tuesday window as a five-day opening weekend.
- Early pre-sales are respectable when given proper context, i.e. the glut of male- and fan-driven films opening before Dial of Destiny hits theaters in June. The film is currently pacing ahead of John Wick: Chapter 4 and Fast X.
CONS:
- A monkey on Dial of Destiny‘s back is the mixed reputation of Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, the only other Indiana Jones film to come out this century. It’s no secret that Kingdom divided Indiana Jones fans upon its release in 2008, becoming the target of numerous memes and drawing comparisons to the Star Wars prequels.
- Early critics’ reviews from the film’s Cannes Film Festival premiere have been mixed; the film currently stands at 49% approval on Rotten Tomatoes.
- A mixed critical reception doesn’t always mean family audiences will stay at home—see The Super Mario Bros. Movie—but if families do stay away from Dial of Destiny, Indy’s final adventure could prove more front-loaded than Kingdom.
- A gauntlet of summer competition lies ahead of Dial of Destiny, with Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning: Part One, Barbie, and Oppenheimer, among others, coming to cinemas in July.
Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken
Universal / DreamWorks Animation
June 30, 2023 (WIDE)
Opening Weekend Range: $13M-$18M
Domestic Total Range: $38M-$66M
PROS:
- The female-leaning animated comedy/adventure could serve as a solid counter-programmer against the more male-focused Dial of Destiny.
- Ruby Gillman opens in the third weekend of release for Elemental, the latest from Pixar. That film is currently generating mixed critics’ reviews, which could help Ruby Gillman‘s chances as a potential sleeper hit.
CONS:
- Though family audiences have definitely returned to theaters—see the success of The Bad Guys, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, and The Super Mario Bros. Movie—DreamWorks’ original animated films are challenging to forecast in an era when Illumination has taken over as the dominant brand and films like Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse offer cutting-edge animation that appeals strongly to today’s younger audiences.
- The aforementioned Across the Spider-Verse, if it enjoys good word of mouth like its 2018 predecessor, could still be drawing in family audiences a month after its June 2 release.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 6/2/23)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Distributor |
| 6/9/2023 | Transformers: Rise of the Beasts | $37,000,000 – $46,000,000 | +8% | $75,300,000 – $103,500,000 | +8% | Paramount Pictures |
| 6/16/2023 | Asteroid City (Limited) | Focus Features | ||||
| 6/16/2023 | The Blackening | $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 | -17% | $25,000,000 – $50,000,000 | -17% | Lionsgate |
| 6/16/2023 | Elemental | $31,000,000 – $41,000,000 | $98,000,000 – $167,000,000 | -16% | Disney / Pixar | |
| 6/16/2023 | The Flash | $85,000,000 – $120,000,000 | -8% | $208,000,000 – $322,000,000 | -1% | Warner Bros. Pictures |
| 6/23/2023 | Asteroid City (Expansion) | Focus Features | ||||
| 6/23/2023 | No Hard Feelings | $14,000,000 – $22,000,000 | $50,000,000 – $76,000,000 | Sony Pictures | ||
| 6/23/2023 | Past Lives (Wide Expansion) | A24 | ||||
| 6/30/2023 | Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny | $81,000,000 – $111,000,000 | $225,000,000 – $380,000,000 | Disney / Lucasfilm | ||
| 6/30/2023 | Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken | $13,000,000 – $18,000,000 | $38,000,000 – $66,000,000 | Universal / DreamWorks Animation |
Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.
Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.
For more information about this article or to report any corrections, please contact Boxoffice Pro at numbers@boxoffice.com.
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