Long Range Box Office Forecast: Pixar’s Lightyear, Plus Top Gun: Maverick and Jurassic World Dominion Updates

Photo Credits: Disney & Pixar ("Lightyear")

After three years, Pixar is set for its return to the summer movie season with the anticipated launch of Lightyear this June.

Early analysis on that film is below, followed by current forecast ranges for it and other upcoming summer blockbusters like Top Gun: Maverick and Jurassic World Dominion are below.

Lightyear
Disney & Pixar Studios
June 17, 2022

PROS:

  • Buzz Lightyear is a generational character with popularity among both adults and today’s youth thanks to the massive success of the Toy Story franchise and its four preceding films, the last of which opened to $120.9 million in June 2019.
  • As the first animated tentpole of summer, and the first since December’s Sing 2, Lightyear is positioned to capitalized on a significant amount of pent-up demand among families and kids for their return to cinemas.
  • Doubling down on that anticipation is the fact that this is Pixar’s first theatrically exclusive release since Onward in March 2020 just before the start of the pandemic, and only Disney’s second outside of last year’s Encanto.
  • Early tracking is volatile due to the sparsity of comparison films during the pandemic recovery era, and pre-sales have yet to begin. That being said, early social media and trailer metrics suggest plenty of enthusiasm for this concept that’s well timed for Father’s Day weekend after summer break has begun for kids. Current models are trending well north of Sonic the Hedgehog 2‘s $72 million debut back in April.

CONS:

  • As the first major test of Disney’s core family audience for animated films since last winter, Lightyear has some natural uncertainty surrounding its pre-release tracking. While it will certainly coexist with other films, opening one week after Jurassic World Dominion could create some natural back-loading for Lightyear‘s summer attendance.
  • Although multiple animated films have co-existed during summer in the past, it’s still worth considering that this title will face Minions: The Rise of Gru upon its release two weeks later. There is also no confirmation as to how soon Disney will release Lightyear on streaming, though it is expected to be after 45 days.
  • While the brand association of the related Toy Story movies will provide a clear advantage and built-in audience, it remains to be seen if this film might cater slightly more toward parental moviegoers with a nostalgic drive thanks to the film’s introspective marketing thus far.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022 Calendar
(as of 5/19/22)

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Distributor
5/27/2022 The Bob’s Burgers Movie $6,000,000 – $10,000,000 -15% $14,000,000 – $26,000,000 -15% Disney / 20th Century Studios
5/27/2022 Top Gun: Maverick $98,000,000 – $125,000,000 +3% $280,000,000 – $395,000,000 +3% Paramount Pictures
6/3/2022 Crimes of the Future         NEON
6/10/2022 Jurassic World Dominion $175,000,000 – $215,000,000 +7% $485,000,000 – $605,000,000 +7% Universal Pictures
6/17/2022 Lightyear $90,000,000 – $120,000,000   $300,000,000 – $415,000,000   Disney / Pixar

All above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.

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