As outlooks peer into the end of summer season when the release slate eases up for a brief period, this week’s report takes a look at key factors shaping the upcoming releases alongside one new addition for August 12, Gravitas Ventures’ wide release of Mack & Rita.
PROS:
- Jordan Peele’s Nope is one week out from its anticipated launch with pre-sales beginning to slightly pick up for preview showings on Thursday. As an original horror/sci-fi film shrouded in mystery, we continue to expect back-loading for sales as social metrics and tracking remain healthy for now.
- Mack & Rita could appeal to women in the back weeks of summer with minimal competition, particularly in the mother-daughter-grandmother arena. The studio anticipates a wide opening in over 2,000 domestic theaters.
CONS:
- The social media review embargo for Nope won’t lift until Monday evening, with full reviews going out Wednesday morning (the day before nationwide previews begin). It remains unclear whether this is to protect the spoiler secrecy of the film’s plot or if reception might be a studio concern. For now, forecasts are giving the benefit of the doubt for a strong late summer performer.
- Mack & Rita‘s early social metrics aren’t overly relevant given the target audience, while trailer views suggest it’s likely to be a moderate theatrical player along the lines of Poms.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 7/14/22)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Distributor |
| 7/22/2022 | Nope | $40,000,000 – $60,000,000 | $100,000,000 – $175,000,000 | Universal Pictures | ||
| 7/29/2022 | DC League of Super-Pets | $40,000,000 – $60,000,000 | $120,000,000 – $210,000,000 | Warner Bros. Pictures | ||
| 7/29/2022 | Vengeance | Focus Features | ||||
| 8/5/2022 | Bullet Train | $28,000,000 – $34,000,000 | $85,000,000 – $120,000,000 | Sony Pictures | ||
| 8/5/2022 | Easter Sunday | $14,000,000 – $19,000,000 | $48,000,000 – $70,000,000 | Universal Pictures | ||
| 8/12/2022 | Mack & Rita | $3,000,000 – $7,000,000 | $8,000,000 – $25,000,000 | Gravitas Ventures |
All above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.
Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections are available to clients. For more information on forecasts, pricing, and availability, please contact us.
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