Long Range Box Office Forecast: Marvel Studios’ Black Widow

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This week’s report takes an early look at the first Marvel Studios release in ten months, and the official kick-off to summer movie season.

Black Widow
Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $90 – 130 million

PROS:

  • Disney and Marvel.

  • Initial trailer reactions have been resoundingly positive, with social media footprints comparing well to films like Wonder Woman, Captain Marvel, Thor: Ragnarok, and Captain America: The Winter Soldier. The film’s first (and only) trailer currently ranks among the top viewed trailers online of any 2020 release.

  • After a ten-month absence from cinemas, the Marvel Cinematic Universe will promise to bring back fans eager for the next chapter of the expansive franchise which has dominated this portion of the calendar for the past decade. That excitement should be compounded by long-time demand for a solo Black Widow film starring Scarlett Johansson, dating back to her first presence in Iron Man 2 ten years ago.

  • As the first major tentpole to open after late March’s Mulan (thanks to No Time to Die‘s release being delayed to November), moviegoers will be primed and ready for another event film by the time May rolls around — especially given the relative lack of them on the slate in 2020 compared to recent years.

  • The film won’t run into significant competition until later in May when F9 opens, which could spell great news for staying power if reception is on par with the MCU’s standards.

  • As the MCU universe continues to grow, the action-thriller aspect of this film and addition of new cast members (Rachel Weisz, Florence Pugh, and David Harbour, in this case) should aid appeal to adult viewers.

CONS (and Endgame Spoiler Alerts):

  • As a jump back in time to the chronology between Captain America: Civil War and Avengers: Infinity War, this is a presumed to be prequel about a character which audiences know to have met her demise in last year’s Avengers: Endgame. Typically, franchise movies that look backward instead of forward in their storytelling don’t perform up to the same high-tier box office levels as their predecessors.

  • Though some fans and media outlets speculate Disney could delay the film due to concerns over COVID-19’s impact on overseas box office, it is a fluid situation and Disney has remained committed to Black Widow‘s current release strategy. Given the current unknown climate, tracking and forecasts will be more wide ranging than usual. Should the situation become relatively stabilized by early May, though, the expectation is this should be another major global blockbuster for the Disney / Marvel brands.

Notable Updates This Week

  • No Time to Die has been removed from our report due to its release delay to November 25.

  • Trolls: World Tour‘s release date changes from April 17 to April 10, among other updates.

  • Mulan is showing significant gains in pre-release tracking thanks to a steady marketing campaign early in the year, although we continue to monitor eventual reviews and audience reception given previously mixed online sentiment.

  • For the near future and in regard to immediate releases, we continue to monitor any potential impact of the current health situation as it develops globally and in North America.

Upcoming Theater Count Projections

  • Bloodshot (2,700 studio estimate for March 13)
  • The Hunt (3,000 studio estimate for March 13)
  • I Still Believe (3,100 studio estimate for March 13)
  • My Spy (3,000 studio estimate for March 13)
  • A Quiet Place Part II (3,700 Boxoffice Pro estimate for March 20)

8-Week Tracking and Forecasts

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Tracking Range 3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Range Domestic Total Forecast % Chg from Last Week Distributor
3/13/2020 Bloodshot $9,000,000 – $14,000,000 $10,500,000 -5% $20,000,000 – $38,000,000 $25,000,000 -6% Sony / Columbia
3/13/2020 The Hunt $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 $9,500,000   $15,000,000 – $35,000,000 $23,000,000   Universal
3/13/2020 I Still Believe $10,000,000 – $18,000,000 $13,000,000   $35,000,000 – $59,000,000 $43,000,000   Lionsgate
4/17/2020 My Spy   n/a     n/a   STX
3/20/2020 A Quiet Place Part II $60,000,000 – $80,000,000 $65,000,000 -10% $140,000,000 – $190,000,000 $152,000,000 -10% Paramount
3/27/2020 Mulan $50,000,000 – $80,000,000 $65,000,000 35% $140,000,000 – $230,000,000 $185,000,000 34% Disney
4/3/2020 The Lovebirds $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 $12,000,000   $35,000,000 – $50,000,000 $42,000,000   Paramount
4/3/2020 The New Mutants $15,000,000 – $25,000,000 $17,000,000   $35,000,000 – $55,000,000 $37,000,000   20th Century Studios
4/3/2020 Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway $14,000,000 – $19,000,000 $15,000,000 -19% $55,000,000 – $80,000,000 $58,000,000 -18% Sony / Columbia
4/10/2020 Trolls: World Tour $17,000,000 – $27,000,000 $23,500,000   $60,000,000 – $90,000,000 $81,000,000   Universal
4/17/2020 Antlers   n/a     n/a   Searchlight Pictures
4/17/2020 Blue Story   n/a     n/a   Paramount
4/24/2020 Antebellum $9,000,000 – $14,000,000 $12,000,000   $20,000,000 – $40,000,000 $34,000,000   Lionsgate
4/24/2020 Bad Trip   n/a     n/a   United Artists Releasing
5/1/2020 Black Widow $90,000,000 – $130,000,000 $115,000,000 NEW $220,000,000 – $320,000,000 $306,000,000 NEW Disney / Marvel Studios

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