Summer box office is in full swing, and there’s none mightier this day and age than Marvel Studios to deliver what looks like the centerpiece release of the lucrative season’s second half come July.
Preliminary analysis and early forecasts for the Marvel Cinematic Universe’s latest chapter follow, in addition to current tracking ranges for the likes of Lightyear, The Black Phone, Elvis, and Minions: The Rise of Gru.
Thor: Love and Thunder
Disney & Marvel Studios
July 8, 2022
PROS:
- Marvel.
- Early social trends and trailer views for Love and Thunder have stood up with some of the best metrics generated by MCU releases over the past few years outside of Avengers: Endgame and Spider-Man: No Way Home.
- Strong sentiment and anticipation factors are being driven by the film’s promised blend of comedy, adventure, fantasy, and action, a carryover of what returning writer/director Taika Waititi (fresh off the Oscar-winning Jojo Rabbit) brought to the hugely successful Thor: Ragnarok in 2017.
- Trailers prominently feature the return of main characters from the Guardians of the Galaxy sub-franchise, heightening enthusiasm for another MCU crossover event. The return of Natalie Portman’s Jane Foster in a spoilery-but-important role is also contributing to buzz, alongside the introduction of Christian Bale’s new villain Gorr.
- Chris Hemsworth’s title character has continued to grow in popularity as his story arc has developed over the past decade. Ragnarok set the stage for what is widely viewed among fans as one of the most compelling character arcs to come out of the Avengers: Infinity War and Endgame duology.
- Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness and Spider-Man: No Way Home just recently delivered massive debuts in the past six months, reinforcing the MCU’s sustained popularity across a broad range of audiences.
- The film is distanced (by nearly one full month) from the most recent four-quadrant, live-action tentpole (Jurassic World Dominion). Competition will not be a concern heading into release.
CONS:
- If there’s ever a challenge for a Marvel Studios release, it’s the persistent expectation from fans and casual moviegoers alike that each film lives up to the brand’s unparalleled quality control and audience friendliness across the vast majority of its feature films and television series up to this point.
Multiverse of Madness, despite its overall blockbuster success and impressive opening weekend, is a recent example of that. As a film that experimented by exploring the horror genre and lost some core family audience after opening weekend due its to mature tone, the result has been weaker-than-typical staying power for an MCU blockbuster.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 6/9/22)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range | 3-Day (FSS) Pinpoint Opening Forecast | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Low/High Range | Domestic Total Pinpoint Forecast | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Distributor |
| 6/17/2022 | Lightyear | $90,000,000 – $115,000,000 | $310,000,000 – $405,000,000 | Disney / Pixar | ||||
| 6/24/2022 | The Black Phone | $17,000,000 – $22,000,000 | -5% | $45,000,000 – $70,000,000 | -5% | Universal Pictures | ||
| 6/24/2022 | Elvis | $35,000,000 – $50,000,000 | -8% | $110,000,000 – $155,000,000 | Warner Bros. Pictures | |||
| 7/1/2022 | Minions: The Rise of Gru | $65,000,000 – $80,000,000 | $244,000,000 – $287,000,000 | Universal Pictures | ||||
| 7/8/2022 | Thor: Love and Thunder | $155,000,000 – $205,000,000 | $350,000,000 – $495,000,000 | Disney / Marvel Studios |
All above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.
Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections are available to clients. For more information on forecasts, pricing, and availability, please contact us.
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