Long Range Box Office Forecast: Missing

Photo Credits: Sony / Screen Gems ("Missing")

This week’s update welcomes the addition of Sony and Screen Gems’ follow-up to the 2018 sleeper Searching, titled Missing.

Missing
Sony / Screen Gems
January 20, 2023

PROS:

  • Searching was a bona fide under-the-radar success that drew strong results from a platform release in 9 theaters before expanding to a $6.1 million three-day Labor Day frame from 1,207 locations.
  • Earning $26 million in North America and nearly $75.5 million worldwide on a production budget reported to be under $1 million, it was a hugely profitable release.
  • Missing is hoping to replicate some of that success during a slow January that the industry hopes will still be dominated by Avatar: The Way of Water, but exhibitors will still be yearning for as much content as possible to fill the gaps before the market picks up in February.

CONS:

  • Early social trends aren’t standing out as much as those of the first film, though it remains early days for a release that doesn’t need a major marketing push until the final week or two before opening.
  • Post-holiday releases are notoriously difficult to gauge given the busy market around this time on the calendar.
  • Found footage thrillers have shown a short fuse of popularity, particularly when looking at the diminishing returns of sequels such as Unfriended: Dark Web.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 12/23/22)

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Distributor
12/30/2022 A Man Called Otto (LA / NY Platform)         Sony Pictures / Columbia
1/6/2023 M3GAN $20,000,000 – $35,000,000   $49,000,000 – $77,000,000   Universal Pictures
1/6/2023 A Man Called Otto (Limited)         Sony Pictures / Columbia
1/6/2023 Women Talking (Wide)         United Artists Releasing
1/13/2023 The Devil Conspiracy         Third Day Productions
1/13/2023 House Party $4,000,000 – $9,000,000   $10,000,000 – $25,000,000   Warner Bros. Pictures
1/13/2023 A Man Called Otto (Wide Expansion) $9,000,000 – $14,000,000   $30,000,000 – $60,000,000   Sony Pictures / Columbia
1/13/2023 Plane $6,000,000 – $11,000,000   $15,000,000 – $35,000,000   Lionsgate
1/20/2023 Missing $4,000,000 – $9,000,000   $10,000,000 – $24,000,000   Sony / Screen Gems
1/20/2023 The Son         Sony Pictures Classics
1/20/2023 Untitled Crunchyroll Film         Crunchyroll / Sony

Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.

Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients. For more information on forecasts and pricing, please contact us.

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