Long Range Box Office Forecast: Sonic the Hedgehog 2, Ambulance, and Everything Everywhere All at Once

Photo Credits: Paramount Pictures ("Sonic the Hedgehog 2"); Universal Pictures & Roberto De Angelis ("Ambulance"); A24 Films ("Everything Everywhere All at Once")

The spring release calendar continues to ramp up with this week’s outlook for the wide releases of April 8, headlined by Paramount Pictures and SEGA’s Sonic the Hedgehog 2, Michael Bay’s Ambulance, and A24’s Everything Everywhere All at Once (expanding from limited release).

Our previous report on Morbius can be found here, but the second frame of next month could be just as (if not more) promising with the veritable trio of films slated to hit cinemas nationwide. Preliminary analysis and initial forecast ranges for each are below.

PROS:

  • Sonic the Hedgehog 2 marks the first IP-based sequel catering to families and fans in quite awhile, and the timing should be ripe as the heart of spring approaches next month with the pandemic waning and national attention slowly moving away from virus concerns and restrictions.

    The first film, incidentally, was a breakout hit in early 2020 when its run was blunted by the beginning of the COVID-19 health crisis. Sonic the Hedgehog owns the top video game-based opening weekend in history with its $58 million three-day bow that February. The film closed out at $149 million domestically with plenty left in the tank before theaters were forced to close.

    Two years later, marketing for the sequel is hitting the right notes so far. A returning cast (James Marsden, Ben Schwartz, Jim Carrey, et al) with newcomer Idris Elba as the voice of Knuckles — a popular character from the games — is driving comparable fan enthusiasm via social metrics and trailer views as the first film prior to its debut. Pre-release models are also in the same ballpark as Uncharted ahead of its debut last month.

    With pent-up demand for a major family title and young males as the core demographic, Sonic 2 is very well-positioned as a theatrically exclusive release.
  • Michael Bay returns to the theatrical space with an action-thriller in Ambulance that’s driving solid conversation as an original film. Early marketing is generating tracking comps on par with prior films of his, including 13 Hours and Pain & Gain.

    The male audience has been among the most reliable to show up during the pandemic recovery era, and a cast led by Jake Gyllenhaal, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, and Eiza Gonzalez under the banner of Bay’s sellable name could generate healthy box office interest.
  • Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert’s Everything Everywhere All at Once is right up the alley of distributor A24, which has cultivated a fan base in a way exceedingly rare even for indie studios as they continue to experiment with new talent and genre-crossing.

    The Michelle Yeoh and Jamie Lee Curtis-led action/comedy has earned solid marks in very early tracking, not dissimilar from last year’s The Green Knight ahead of its summer debut that brought out faithful A24 followers.

CONS:

  • The biggest X factor for Sonic the Hedgehog 2 remains the volatile nature of family audience sentiment. That market has hardly been tested since Sing 2 released over the holidays at the end of last year, so this film will provide major insight as to how parents are feeling as the industry heads into the late spring and summer movie seasons.

    Additionally, family-driven sequels have a tendency to decline from their predecessors’ results more often than they match or exceed them. Key examples here include the sequels to The LEGO Movie and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (2014). However, as noted, the first Sonic‘s pandemic-hampered run may render such comparisons for this sequel mostly irrelevant.

    The film also runs up against Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore in its second frame (Easter weekend) and Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness in its fourth, so stretch weekends won’t be without competition for audience and premium screen space.
  • With the Sonic sequel likely to pull a heavy young male audience, Ambulance will serve as the counter-programmer for adults on this weekend. Given that Bay is also coming off his own Netflix film, 6 Underground, this is another test of the kind of content audiences are willing to prioritize the theatrical experience for. Positive reviews and word of mouth will be important toward that goal.
  • Further down the counter-programming alley is Everything Everywhere All at Once, and even though it’s planned as a wide expansion (following a March 25 limited release), this should still play to a mostly niche audience upfront given the high profile content opening against it.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022 Calendar
(as of 3/10/22)

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Distributor
3/18/2022 The Outfit $500,000 – $2,000,000   $1,500,000 – $8,000,000   Focus Features
3/18/2022 Jujutsu Kaisen 0: The Movie          
3/18/2022 Umma         Sony / Stage 6 Films
3/18/2022 X         A24
3/25/2022 The Lost City $15,000,000 – $25,000,000   $45,000,000 – $78,000,000   Paramount Pictures
4/1/2022 The Contractor $500,000 – $3,000,000   $1,000,000 – $7,000,000   Paramount Pictures
4/1/2022 Morbius $40,000,000 – $60,000,000   $80,000,000 – $130,000,000   Sony Pictures / Columbia
4/8/2022 Ambulance $12,000,000 – $18,000,000 NEW $35,000,000 – $55,000,000 NEW Universal Pictures
4/8/2022 Everything Everywhere All at Once (Wide; Limited on Mar. 25)) $3,000,000 – $7,000,000 NEW $10,000,000 – $20,000,000 NEW A24
4/8/2022 Sonic the Hedgehog 2 $40,000,000 – $55,000,000 NEW $115,000,000 – $165,000,000 NEW Paramount Pictures
4/13/2022 Father Stu         Sony Pictures / Columbia
4/15/2022 Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore         Warner Bros. Pictures
4/15/2022 Untitled WB Event Film 2022 1         Warner Bros. Pictures
4/22/2022 The Bad Guys         Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation
4/22/2022 The Northman         Focus Features
4/22/2022 The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent         Lionsgate
4/29/2022 Memory         Briarcliff Entertainment / Open Road Films
5/6/2022 Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness         Disney / Marvel Studios
5/13/2022 Firestarter         Universal Pictures
5/20/2022 Downton Abbey: A New Era         Focus Features
5/27/2022 Bob’s Burgers         Disney / 20th Century Studios
5/27/2022 Top Gun Maverick         Paramount Pictures
6/3/2022 Eiffel         Blue Fox Entertainment
6/3/2022 Untitled WB Event Film 2022 2         Warner Bros. Pictures
6/3/2022 Watcher         IFC Films
6/10/2022 Jurassic World: Dominion         Universal Pictures
6/17/2022 Lightyear         Disney / Pixar
6/24/2022 The Black Phone         Universal Pictures
6/24/2022 Elvis         Warner Bros. Pictures
6/24/2022 Untitled Blumhouse Project         Universal Pictures
6/29/2022 Shotgun Wedding         Lionsgate
7/1/2022 Minions: The Rise of Gru         Universal Pictures
7/8/2022 Thor: Love and Thunder         Disney / Marvel Studios
7/15/2022 Bed Rest         STXfilms
7/15/2022 Bullet Train         Sony Pictures
7/15/2022 Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris         Focus Features
7/22/2022 Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank         Paramount Pictures
7/22/2022 Nope         Universal Pictures
7/22/2022 Where the Crawdads Sing         Sony / 3000 Pictures
7/29/2022 DC League of Super-Pets         Warner Bros. Pictures
7/29/2022 Venegance         Focus Features
8/5/2022 Easter Sunday         Universal Pictures
8/5/2022 Secret Headquarters         Paramount Pictures
8/5/2022 Untitled WB Event Film 2022 3         Warner Bros. Pictures
8/12/2022 Untitled Searchlight         Disney / Searchlight
8/12/2022 Man from Toronto         Sony Pictures / Columbia
8/19/2022 Beast         Universal Pictures
8/26/2022 The Bride         Sony Pictures / Columbia
8/26/2022 Fear         Hidden Empire Film Group (HEFG)
8/26/2022 Samaritan         United Artists Releasing
9/2/2022 Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul.         Focus Features
9/9/2022 Salem’s Lot         Warner Bros. / New Line
9/16/2022 Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret.         Lionsgate
9/16/2022 Distant         Universal Pictures
9/16/2022 The Woman King         Sony / TriStar Pictures
9/23/2022 Don’t Worry Darling         Warner Bros. Pictures
9/23/2022 Puss In Boots: The Last Wish         Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation
9/23/2022 Untitled 20th Century 2022 3         Disney / 20th Century Studios
9/30/2022 Bros         Universal Pictures
10/7/2022 Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Part One)         Sony Pictures
10/14/2022 Halloween Ends         Universal Pictures
10/14/2022 White Bird: A Wonder Story         Lionsgate
10/21/2022 The Banshees of Inisherin         Disney / Searchlight Pictures
10/21/2022 Black Adam         Warner Bros. Pictures
10/21/2022 Ticket to Paradise         Universal Pictures
10/21/2022 Untitled Paramount         Paramount Pictures
10/28/2022 The Devil’s Light         Lionsgate
11/4/2022 Untitled Bee Gees         Paramount Pictures
11/4/2022 Untitled David O. Russell         Disney / 20th Century Studios
11/11/2022 Black Panther: Wakanda Forever         Disney / Marvel Studios
11/18/2022 Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile         Sony / Columbia Pictures
11/18/2022 Untitled WB Event Film 2022 4         Warner Bros. Pictures
11/18/2022 She Said         Universal Pictures
11/18/2022 Thirteen Lives         MGM / United Artists Releasing
11/23/2022 Creed III         MGM
11/23/2022 The Fabelmans         Universal Pictures
11/23/2022 Strange World         Walt Disney Pictures
12/2/2022 Violent Night         Universal Pictures
12/9/2022 (no releases scheduled)          
12/16/2022 Shazam! Fury of the Gods         Warner Bros. Pictures
12/21/2022 Avatar 2         Disney / 20th Century Studios
12/21/2022 I Wanna Dance With Somebody         Sony Pictures / TriStar Pictures
12/21/2022 Mario         Universal Pictures
12/23/2022 Untitled 20th Century 2022 6         Disney / 20th Century Studios
12/25/2022 A Man Called Otto         Sony Pictures / Columbia
12/30/2022 (no releases scheduled)          

All above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.

Pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections are available exclusively to Boxoffice PRO clients. For more information on forecasts, pricing, and availability, please contact us.

 

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