Long Range Box Office Forecast: SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE and THE BOOGEYMAN

Photo Credits: Sony ("Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse"); 20th Century Studios ("The Boogeyman")

This week’s report takes a first look at June, slated to kick off with a bang as Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and The Boogeyman counter each other in the first frame after most schools across the country will be out for summer break.

Additionally, updated tracking ranges for the remainder of May’s releases are below as usual.

PROS:

  • Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse will serve up the first major animated title since April’s Super Mario Bros. Movie in a move to capture demand for fresh family-friendly content that’s backed by another significant franchise fan base.

    The prior Spider-Verse film was incredibly leggy through its late 2018 and early 2019 run, opening to a respectable $35.4 million but drawing out to an incredible $190.2 million domestically and going on to become an Oscar winner.

    Goodwill from that film (97 percent from critics, 93 percent from audiences on Rotten Tomatoes) and high anticipation from fans and families puts this sequel in a strong position as the first animated film of summer, particularly among men of all ages but potentially with some four-quadrant appeal thanks to the diverse and expanding universe of characters.

    Early social and trailer trends are so far the strongest of the four primarily family- and kid-focused titles set for release this summer (namely, Pixar’s Elemental, Universal’s Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken, and Paramount’s Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem).
  • Disney’s 20th Century Studios banner will counter with The Boogeyman that same weekend, the latest adaptation of a Stephen King property that’s been drawing rave reception in test and industry screenings. Preliminary models are comparable to recent genre breakouts like Smile and The Black Phone.

CONS:

  • Animated sequels aren’t always the audience-builders previously assumed they would be, even coming off a resoundingly beloved first installment. Examples: How to Train Your Dragon, The LEGO Movie, The Secret Life of Pets, and others.

    That said, Across the Spider-Verse has the Spider-Man and superhero branding to help it buck that kind of trend, as well as the sustained popularity of the prior entry over the last four years. If it runs into any significant competition, it would be from staying power of Little Mermaid and Pixar’s Elemental later in June.

    Word of mouth, of course, will be key toward helping its longevity and determining if this sequel is fresh enough to bring viewers back over the summer. Notably, the film faces The Flash in its third frame before running into a crowded July as well.
  • Projecting horror films with little pre-established box office footing can be volatile, and while The Boogeyman serves as the season’s first major release, it will face The Blackening, and The Flash somewhat less directly, in its third frame.

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 5/5/23)

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range 4-Day (FSSM) Opening Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Distributor
5/12/2023 Book Club 2 – The Next Chapter $8,000,000 – $13,000,000   -15% $24,000,000 – $42,000,000 -15% Focus Features
5/12/2023 Fool’s Paradise           Roadside Attractions
5/12/2023 Hypnotic           Ketchup Entertainment
5/12/2023 Knights of the Zodiac $1,000,000 – $4,000,000   -25% $2,000,000 – $8,000,000 -25% Sony Pictures
5/12/2023 Rally Road Racers           Viva Pictures
5/15/2023 Jonah: A VeggieTales Movie           Seven Minds Family Films
5/19/2023 Fast X $63,000,000 – $73,000,000   -8% $141,500,000 – $181,000,000 -8% Universal Pictures
5/26/2023 About My Father $4,000,000 – $8,000,000   -23% $10,000,000 – $29,000,000 -28% Lionsgate
5/26/2023 Kandahar $5,000,000 – $10,000,000     $14,000,000 – $31,000,000   Open Road Films
5/26/2023 The Little Mermaid (2023) $70,000,000 – $90,000,000 $89,000,000 – $115,000,000   $255,000,000 – $305,000,000   Walt Disney Pictures
5/26/2023 The Machine           Sony Pictures / Legendary Pictures
5/26/2023 You Hurt My Feelings           A24
5/27/2023 Oggy and the Cockroaches: The Movie           Seven Minds Family Films
6/2/2023 The Boogeyman $19,000,000 – $26,000,000     $61,000,000 – $102,000,000   Disney / 20th Century Studios
6/2/2023 Past Lives (Platform)           A24
6/2/2023 Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse $85,000,000 – $105,000,000     $226,000,000 – $325,000,000   Sony / Columbia Pictures

Unless otherwise noted, all figures above represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation at the time of this report’s publication date. These are statistical snapshots, not final forecasts.

Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections for theatrical movies up to 12 months from release are available to clients.

For more information about this article or to report any corrections, please contact the author.

Photo Credits: Sony ("Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse"); 20th Century Studios ("The Boogeyman")
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