The look ahead into late summer doldrums at the box office continues this week with an early check on August’s final frame, plus a few key notes and an addition to the tracking of earlier releases.
PROS:
- Bullet Train continues to display encouraging potential in pre-sales, social metrics, and traditional tracking ahead of next week’s release. The last remaining piece of the puzzle will be reviews and how they might impact opening weekend interest.
- Slated to open nationwide on August 19, Crunchyroll’s Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero is showing positive signs. Pre-sales began last week and the film’s planned IMAX footprint should further boost potential among fans in the middle of a relatively competition-less month.
- Closing out August, The Invitation is drawing solid trailer views thus far and could provide horror fans with much needed content by that point. Labor Day landing on its second frame should aid staying power if reception is positive.
CONS:
- Easter Sunday has yet to pick up much momentum across the universe of tracking, pre-sales included. It will need robust late stage interest next week as a the counter-programmer to Bullet Train in order to exceed current expectations.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 7/28/22)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Distributor |
| 8/5/2022 | Bullet Train | $30,000,000 – $40,000,000 | +13% | $95,000,000 – $125,000,000 | +3% | Sony Pictures |
| 8/5/2022 | Easter Sunday | $8,000,000 – $13,000,000 | -31% | $27,000,000 – $48,000,000 | -31% | Universal Pictures |
| 8/12/2022 | Mack & Rita | $3,000,000 – $7,000,000 | $8,000,000 – $25,000,000 | Gravitas Ventures | ||
| 8/12/2022 | Summering | Bleecker Street Media | ||||
| 8/19/2022 | Beast | $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 | +4% | $31,000,000 – $49,000,000 | +4% | Universal Pictures |
| 8/19/2022 | Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero | $11,000,000 – $16,000,000 | NEW | $20,000,000 – $35,000,000 | NEW | Sony / Crunchyroll |
| 8/26/2022 | The Invitation | $8,000,000 – $13,000,000 | NEW | $20,000,000 – $35,000,000 | NEW | Sony Pictures / Columbia |
| 8/26/2022 | Fear | Hidden Empire Film Group (HEFG) |
All above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.
Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections are available to clients. For more information on forecasts, pricing, and availability, please contact us.
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