This week’s update takes a look at the latest tracking for next week’s highly anticipated Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, alongside the new addition of December 2’s Violent Night.
Current forecast ranges for all releases over the next four weeks are in the chart below.
PROS:
- Black Panther: Wakanda Forever continues to heat up with one week until launch and plenty of strong social media reactions out of early industry screenings. Given the first film’s ability to break out beyond the die-hard Marvel audience and soar past expectations, this sequel’s audience potential still has room to evolve over the coming week(s) and could prove this week’s minor revisions below unnecessary.
- Violent Night is offering up a holiday-themed actioner for adults with David Harbour’s performance (Stranger Things, 2019’s Hellboy) anchoring positive sentiment across the social sphere of trailer reactions. Some breakout potential exists.
The overall universe of preliminary tracking and marketing analysis, before ticket sales begin, is pacing almost 80 percent ahead of 2021’s Nobody ($6.8 million opening weekend during early theatrical recovery), and not far from that of the original John Wick ($14.4 million), Krampus ($16.3 million), and Office Christmas Party ($16.9 million).
CONS:
- Wakanda Forever‘s overall range has slightly widened as pre-sales for the most recent seven-day period fell slightly short of projections (though not enough to be concerned about), while reactions to the recently released second trailer weren’t as measurably strong as the original teaser (which scored among the highest of any recent Marvel film, to be fair).
It still remains to be seen whether full critics’ reviews will have a major impact on sales or social sentiment next week, as well as the film’s 161-minute length and continued caution surrounding the tragic reality that this sequel is ultimately without its predecessor’s lead star, Chadwick Boseman.
Pinpoint forecasts tentatively lean toward the low end of current ranges. Final forecasts will be published next week.
- Men over 25 will be the driver of Violent Night‘s run with a lower degree of female appeal than the aforementioned comparison films released around this time of year, meaning some potential niche factor to consider in forecasts. Reviews and audience reception will be important to watch for in the weeks ahead, as might any potential shortened theatrical window if Universal opts to make the film available at home close to Christmas.
Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 11/4/22)
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total Low/High Range | Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week | Distributor |
| 11/11/2022 | Black Panther: Wakanda Forever | $170,000,000 – $205,000,000 | $435,000,000 – $543,000,000 | Disney / Marvel Studios | ||
| 11/11/2022 | Spirited | Apple Original Films | ||||
| 11/18/2022 | The Chosen Season 3: Episodes 1 & 2 | Fathom Events | ||||
| 11/18/2022 | The Menu | $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 | $25,000,000 – $50,000,000 | Disney / Searchlight Pictures | ||
| 11/18/2022 | She Said | $4,000,000 – $9,000,000 | $14,000,000 – $34,000,000 | Universal Pictures | ||
| 11/23/2022 | Bones and All (Limited on Nov. 18) | United Artists Releasing | ||||
| 11/23/2022 | Devotion | $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 | $17,000,000 – $42,000,000 | Sony / Columbia Pictures | ||
| 11/23/2022 | The Fabelmans (Wide Expansion; LA/NY Nov. 11) | $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 | $35,000,000 – $65,000,000 | Universal Pictures | ||
| 11/23/2022 | Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery | $6,000,000+ | $12,000,000+ | Netflix | ||
| 11/23/2022 | Strange World | $20,000,000 – $30,000,000 | $68,000,000 – $103,000,000 | Walt Disney Pictures | ||
| 12/2/2022 | Emancipation | Apple Original Films | ||||
| 12/2/2022 | Quintessential Quintuplets Movie | Crunchyroll / Sony | ||||
| 12/2/2022 | Violent Night | $8,000,000 – $13,000,000 | $21,000,000 – $42,000,000 | Universal Pictures |
Unless otherwise noted, all above figures represent best and worst case scenarios for how each respective film is currently tracking based on existing market conditions and projected model fluctuation before release. These are not final forecasts.
Additional pinpoint opening weekend and domestic total projections are available to clients. For more information on forecasts, pricing, and availability, please contact us.
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