Long Range Box Office Tracking: Disney’s Mulan

Image Courtesy of Walt Disney Studios

Our look ahead into March and the end of 2020’s first quarter concludes with preliminary tracking and forecasts for Disney’s next live action adaptation.

Mulan
Opening Weekend Range: $40 – 60 million

PROS:

  • Second to no one, Disney has all but mastered the ability to capitalize on existing IP and nostalgia. In recent years, they’ve sent remakes of The Lion King, Beauty and the Beast, Aladdin, The Jungle Book, Maleficent, and Cinderella to varying degrees of big box office success.

  • As audiences and the industry embrace diversity on the big screen, the appeal of a large scale, English language film starring a predominately Asian cast could attract a strong turnout from Asian-American communities and families.

  • Opening three weeks after Pixar’s Onward, there should be enough of a gap to prevent significant competition — especially given the former’s lean toward young male audiences, in opposition to this feature’s reliance upon young women.

  • Trailer impressions are notably high as the film received a considerable amount of promotion in front of blockbusters like Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker and Frozen II over the holidays.

CONS:

  • Though a success in its own right, the 1998 Mulan was a more down-to-earth box office performer compared to the earlier blockbuster successes of Disney’s previous golden animation age in the early 1990s.

  • Although the film has some distance between it and another Disney opener early in March, April will bring about a fair amount of potential competition for younger viewers with Peter Rabbit 2 (April 3, one week after) and Trolls: World Tour (April 17).

  • Rumors of significant reshoots (not entirely confirmed by Disney) and a few key changes from the original animated film could hinder excitement among devoted fans of the latter.

  • Though generating strong views in terms of numbers, the film’s trailers have incurred mixed sentiment across social media metrics. This is not always indicative of long-term success (see last year’s Aladdin, for example), but combined with other factors mentioned here, we’re somewhat cautious in forecasts for the time being while leaving breakout potential on the table.

Upcoming Estimated Location Counts

  • Birds of Prey (4,100 studio estimate)
  • Fantasy Island (2,700)
  • The Photograph (2,300)
  • Sonic the Hedgehog (4,000)

8-Week Tracking & Forecasts

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Tracking Range 3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Range Domestic Total Forecast % Chg from Last Week Distributor
2/7/2020 Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn) $40,000,000 – $60,000,000 $49,000,000   $100,000,000 – $150,000,000 $135,000,000 8% Warner Bros.
2/14/2020 Fantasy Island $12,000,000 – $17,000,000 $15,500,000   $30,000,000 – $45,000,000 $40,000,000   Sony / Columbia
2/14/2020 The Photograph $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 $13,000,000   $25,000,000 – $35,000,000 $30,000,000   Universal
2/14/2020 Sonic the Hedgehog $31,000,000 – $36,000,000 $34,000,000 3% $100,000,000 – $140,000,000 $118,500,000 3% Paramount
2/21/2020 Brahms: The Boy 2 $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 $8,000,000   $15,000,000 – $28,000,000 $17,800,000   STX
2/21/2020 Call of the Wild $15,000,000 – $20,000,000 $15,000,000   $50,000,000 – $65,000,000 $50,000,000   20th Century
2/28/2020 The Invisible Man $20,000,000 – $40,000,000 $30,000,000   $60,000,000 – $105,000,000 $80,000,000   Universal
3/6/2020 Onward $50,000,000 – $70,000,000 $60,000,000   $175,000,000 – $250,000,000 $227,000,000   Disney / Pixar
3/6/2020 The Way Back $12,000,000 – $17,000,000 $13,000,000   $40,000,000 – $60,000,000 $43,500,000   Warner Bros.
3/13/2020 Bloodshot $12,000,000 – $17,000,000 $14,000,000   $30,000,000 – $45,000,000 $36,000,000   Sony / Columbia
3/13/2020 I Still Believe $13,000,000 – $18,000,000 $14,500,000   $44,000,000 – $59,000,000 $49,000,000   Lionsgate
3/13/2020 My Spy $8,000,000 – $13,000,000 $10,000,000   $25,000,000 – $45,000,000 $36,000,000   STX
3/13/2020 Untitled Blumhouse Productions Project   n/a     n/a   Universal
3/20/2020 A Quiet Place Part II $60,000,000 – $80,000,000 $72,000,000   $140,000,000 – $190,000,000 $168,000,000   Paramount
3/27/2020 Mulan $40,000,000 – $60,000,000 $46,000,000 NEW $115,000,000 – $170,000,000 $132,000,000 NEW Disney

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