Long Range Box Office Tracking: The Lovebirds, The New Mutants, & Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway

This week’s long range tracking update takes a first look at three releases slated to open Friday, April 3, kicking off 2020’s second quarter.

The Lovebirds
Opening Weekend Range: $10 – 15 million

PROS:

  • Stars Kumail Nanjiani (Silicon Valley, Marvel’s upcoming The Eternals) and Issa Rae (The Photograph, Little) could combine for an appealing date-night-out option among adults.

  • Online sentiment generated from the first trailer is comparable to 2018’s Game Night.

CONS:

  • Romantic comedies have misfired more often than they’ve succeeded at the box office in recent years.

  • Proximity to A Quiet Place Part II and No Time to Die could hinder breakout potential among adult audiences.

The New Mutants
Opening Weekend Range: $15 – 25 million

PROS:

  • Dedicated fans of the X-Men franchise will likely show up for this spin-off from the previous Fox era of the brand, particularly given its unique tonal shift into the quasi-horror genre.

  • With Anya Taylor-Joy (Split), Maisie Williams (Game of Thrones), and Charlie Heaton (Stranger Things) leading the cast, their presence could help attract less die-hard followers of the series.

CONS:

  • A myriad of release delays and online rumors about re-shoots and creative indecision — spurred in part from Disney’s purchase of Fox last year — have resulted in measurable declines in social media sentiment over the last couple of years. We’re currently gauging interest levels somewhat lower than 2015’s Fantastic Four reboot and last year’s Dark Phoenix.

  • Likely to be impacted by A Quiet Place Part II, Mulan, and No Time to Die, there isn’t much breathing room for this release — especially when it comes to premium screens.

Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway
Opening Weekend Range: $14 – 19 million

PROS:

  • The first film was a solid family hit two years ago with a $25 million opening / $115.3 million domestic run, earning $351 million globally overall. The return of the same cast should help this sequel remain an attractive option for parents and kids.

  • Opening one month after Onward, and one week ahead of the timely Easter holiday weekend, serve as strategic advantages.

CONS:

  • Family-driven sequels have developed a trend of declining returns in recent years. Early metrics indicate the same will happen here, though it could still turn into another profitable hit.

  • Proximity to Trolls: World Tour two weeks later is notable.

Upcoming Estimated Location Counts

  • Fantasy Island (2,700 studio estimate)
  • The Photograph (2,500 studio estimate)
  • Sonic the Hedgehog (4,081 studio estimate)
  • Brahms: The Boy 2 (2,400)
  • Call of the Wild (3,200)

8-Week Tracking & Forecasts

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Tracking Range 3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Range Domestic Total Forecast % Chg from Last Week Distributor
2/14/2020 Downhill   n/a NEW   n/a NEW Searchlight Pictures
2/14/2020 Blumhouse’s Fantasy Island $12,000,000 – $17,000,000 $14,000,000 -10% $30,000,000 – $45,000,000 $31,000,000 -23% Sony / Columbia
2/14/2020 The Photograph $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 $13,000,000   $20,000,000 – $30,000,000 $24,000,000 -20% Universal
2/14/2020 Sonic the Hedgehog $33,000,000 – $38,000,000 $36,000,000 6% $110,000,000 – $140,000,000 $125,000,000 6% Paramount
2/21/2020 Brahms: The Boy 2 $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 $8,000,000   $15,000,000 – $28,000,000 $17,800,000   STX
2/21/2020 Call of the Wild $15,000,000 – $20,000,000 $13,000,000 -13% $50,000,000 – $65,000,000 $44,000,000 -12% 20th Century
2/28/2020 The Invisible Man $20,000,000 – $40,000,000 $30,000,000   $60,000,000 – $105,000,000 $80,000,000   Universal
3/6/2020 Onward $50,000,000 – $70,000,000 $60,000,000   $175,000,000 – $250,000,000 $227,000,000   Disney / Pixar
3/6/2020 The Way Back $12,000,000 – $17,000,000 $13,000,000   $40,000,000 – $60,000,000 $43,500,000   Warner Bros.
3/13/2020 Bloodshot $12,000,000 – $17,000,000 $14,000,000   $30,000,000 – $45,000,000 $36,000,000   Sony / Columbia
3/13/2020 I Still Believe $13,000,000 – $18,000,000 $14,500,000   $44,000,000 – $59,000,000 $49,000,000   Lionsgate
3/13/2020 My Spy $8,000,000 – $13,000,000 $10,000,000   $25,000,000 – $45,000,000 $36,000,000   STX
3/13/2020 Untitled Blumhouse Productions Project   n/a     n/a   Universal
3/20/2020 A Quiet Place Part II $60,000,000 – $80,000,000 $72,000,000   $140,000,000 – $190,000,000 $168,000,000   Paramount
3/27/2020 Mulan $40,000,000 – $60,000,000 $46,000,000   $115,000,000 – $170,000,000 $132,000,000   Disney
4/3/2020 The Lovebirds $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 $12,000,000 NEW $35,000,000 – $50,000,000 $42,000,000 NEW Paramount
4/3/2020 The New Mutants $15,000,000 – $25,000,000 $17,000,000 NEW $35,000,000 – $55,000,000 $37,000,000 NEW 20th Century
4/3/2020 Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway $14,000,000 – $19,000,000 $18,500,000 NEW $65,000,000 – $85,000,000 $71,000,000 NEW Sony / Columbia

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