Long Range: Captain Marvel Tracking for $140M+ Launch; Early Forecasts for Hellboy, Little, & Missing Link

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This week’s report below focuses on three of the four wide releases currently scheduled for the second weekend of April.

First up, however, Captain Marvel appeared on traditional tracking for the first time this week — and early indicators are as strong as previously expected. The film’s Awareness, Interest, and First Choice levels are registering higher than comparable films Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 and Rogue One: A Star Wars Story at the same point before release. The upcoming MCU prequel is also trending ahead of other recent Marvel titles, suggesting more bullish prediction models are in play for now.

On our Trailer Impact surveys, Captain registered an 89 percent Average Positive Interest earlier this week — 2 percent higher than the forthcoming Spider-Man: Far from Home and just 5 percent behind Avengers: Endgame.

Contingent upon reviews closer to release, we continue to forecast Captain Marvel on track for an opening weekend north of $140 million domestically when it opens on International Women’s Day, Friday, March 8.


Hellboy
Opening Weekend Range: $17 – 25 million

PROS:

  • Guillermo del Toro’s 2004 and 2008 adaptations are well regarded among fans, having earned $59.6 million and $76 million, respectively, at the domestic box office. Comic book films have only gained in popularity since then, which could boost the profile of this reboot.
  • The casting of David Harbour (Stranger Things) has been generally well-received despite his having to take over the popular turn of Ron Perlman in the title role.

CONS:

  • With a complete change in cast and crew — plus the notable absence of del Toro’s involvement — fans are cautious in hopes for a film that stands up to the previous entries.
  • Opening one week after Shazam! (which is a notable breakout candidate) and two weeks before Avengers: Endgame will likely bottleneck this film’s potential.

Little
Opening Weekend Range: $12 – 18 million

PROS:

  • There aren’t many comedies on the docket this spring, creating a window for a solid counter-programmer against the higher profile titles in release.
  • Producer Will Packer has delivered a consistent string of successes appealing strongly to the African-American community, with his most recent hits including What Men WantNight SchoolBreaking In, and Girls Trip.

CONS:

  • The “wish fulfillment” concept played in recent female-driven comedies like Isn’t It RomanticWhat Men Want, and I Feel Pretty could create some fatigue when it comes to moviegoer interest in that sub-genre.

Missing Link
Opening Weekend Range: $7 – 15 million

PROS:

  • Laika Studios have developed a strong track record with critically and commercially acclaimed films like Kubo and the Two StringsThe BoxtrollsParaNormanCoraline, and Corpse Bride.
  • Opening in Dumbo‘s third weekend could distance it just enough for parents with young kids to be a viable target audience in mid-April.

CONS:

  • The box office under-performance of similar stop-motion films like Early Man and Shaun the Sheep leave us cautious in projections despite Laika’s exception-to-the-rule type of success. The young distribution history of Annapurna’s wide releases adds reasoning behind conservative forecasts.

8-Week Tracking

Release DateTitle3-Day Wide Release Tracking% Chg from Last WeekDomestic Total Forecast% Chg from Last WeekEstimated Location CountDistributor
2/22/2019Fighting with My Family$7,500,000-6%$23,000,000-8%2,500MGM
2/22/2019How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World$48,000,000-2%$170,000,000-2%4,000Universal
3/1/2019Gretan/an/an/aFocus Features
3/1/2019Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral$23,000,000-15%$58,000,000-15%2,300Lionsgate
3/8/2019Captain Marvel$160,000,000$440,000,000Disney / Marvel
3/15/2019No Manches Frida 2n/an/aLionsgate / Pantelion Films
3/15/2019Five Feet Apart$11,000,000$37,000,000Lionsgate
3/15/2019Wonder Park$8,000,000$30,000,000Paramount
3/22/2019The Informern/an/aAviron
3/22/2019Us$42,000,000$135,000,000Universal
3/29/2019Dumbo (2019)$57,000,000-3%$170,000,000-3%Disney
3/29/2019Hotel Mumbain/an/aBleecker Street
3/29/2019Unplannedn/an/aPure Flix
4/5/2019The Best of Enemies$10,000,000$30,000,000STX
4/5/2019Pet Sematary (2019)$28,000,000$65,000,000Paramount
4/5/2019Shazam!$48,000,0007%$144,000,000Warner Bros.
4/12/2019After (2019)n/an/aAviron
4/12/2019Hellboy (2019)$22,000,000NEW$46,000,000NEWLionsgate / Summit
4/12/2019Little$15,000,000NEW$43,000,000NEWUniversal
4/12/2019Missing Link$10,000,000NEW$39,000,000NEWAnnapurna Pictures

Tracking and forecasts are subject to change each week as marketing, reviews, and other factors are taken into consideration.

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Alex Edghill contributed to this report

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