The Boxoffice Podium
Forecasting the Top 3 Movies at the Domestic Box Office | June 19 – 21, 2026
Week 25 | June 19 – 21, 2026
1. Toy Story 5
Disney/Pixar | NEW
Opening Weekend Range: $160M – $175M
Showtime Market Share: 38%
Pros
- After three decades of box office magic, exhibition knows they’ve got a friend in the Toy Story franchise. Our panel is predicting a franchise-record finish for Toy Story 5, which will also mark the best opening weekend of the year to date. There hasn’t been a true tentpole family film on the schedule since Super Mario Galaxy‘s $131.7M bow back in April. While Pixar has had mixed fortunes on the originals front—we don’t have to go back too far to find Hoppers‘ modest $166M domestic run—this is as meat-and-potatoes as it gets for the animation giant. We think $160M – $175M is a realistic range for the title, but we could also see a surge of demand in the days leading up to release that could take this north of $175M.
Cons
- Inside Out 2‘s $1.69B WW performance two summers ago proved Pixar still has the winning formula, and even though their Toy Story series is over three decades old, it remains timeless nostalgia for adults and accessible for new kid audiences. Still, the Lightyear spin-off film from 2022 was a rare miscalculation in both concept and execution, stalling out at $118.3M domestic. For the mainline franchise, it has been an ascending series of bigger and bigger openings, from the first film ($29.1M) in 1995 to the second ($57.38M), the third ($110.3M), and the fourth in 2019 ($120.9M). With a current 93% critical on Rotten Tomatoes and a completely relatable new hook (kid gets a tablet, toys become obsolete), it looks like Disney pulled this one off the shelf just in time.
2. Disclosure Day
Universal Pictures | Week 2
Weekend Range: $17M – $22M
Showtime Market Share: 9%
Pros
- We always knew Toy Story 5 was going to eclipse Disclosure Day in the Steven Spielberg film’s second frame, but the Universal/Amblin film acquitted itself well enough in its opening bow with $44.5M. That’s not bad for an original movie with no big marquee names beyond the Jurassic Park helmer, who campaigned like a champ for his new flick. The more adult-leaning tone and lack of explosive set pieces made it a tougher sell in the summer season and may have played better in the 1st or 3rd quarter. At this pace, we expect the film to leg out a performance that hits the $100M domestic benchmark.
Cons
- Despite the power of Spielberg, we are expecting a -50%+ drop for Disclosure Day. While older audiences might find their way to theaters in the coming weeks, we see limited appeal from younger demos for the original sci-fi title. Only 41% of the opening weekend audience was under the age of 35, with 18-24 year olds being the weakest adult demo with 14% and under 17’s virtually nonexistent. Meanwhile, audiences ages 55+ represented 24% of the take. We don’t think that “B” CinemaScore bodes well for crossover appeal, either.
3. Obsession
Focus Features | Week 6
Weekend Range: $12M – $17M
Showtime Market Share: 8%
Pros
- America has Obsession fever, and Focus’ box office darling is going to become (against all odds) a $200M grosser this weekend. A wild story, since the film could finish the month by overtaking The Devil Wears Prada 2 (currently at $218M) as the #3 domestic film of the year so far. This past weekend, it shot up two places to #2 with $19M, another incredible feat for a little movie that could.
Cons
- The battle for the counter-programming dollar this frame will be fought between Obsession and A24’s Death of Robin Hood, a dark revisionist take on the English folk hero starring Hugh Jackman. The last major Robin Hood movie in 2018 tapped out at $30.8M domestic, though this is a different animal. Our forecast for the new Robin Hood flick sits around the $5M mark for its opening weekend, but reviews are solid enough (77% on Rotten Tomatoes), where it could snap up some attention for audiences looking for something new.
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