Long Range: Captain Marvel Tracking for $140M+ Launch; Early Forecasts for Hellboy, Little, & Missing Link

This week’s report below focuses on three of the four wide releases currently scheduled for the second weekend of April.

First up, however, Captain Marvel appeared on traditional tracking for the first time this week — and early indicators are as strong as previously expected. The film’s Awareness, Interest, and First Choice levels are registering higher than comparable films Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 and Rogue One: A Star Wars Story at the same point before release. The upcoming MCU prequel is also trending ahead of other recent Marvel titles, suggesting more bullish prediction models are in play for now.

On our Trailer Impact surveys, Captain registered an 89 percent Average Positive Interest earlier this week — 2 percent higher than the forthcoming Spider-Man: Far from Home and just 5 percent behind Avengers: Endgame.

Contingent upon reviews closer to release, we continue to forecast Captain Marvel on track for an opening weekend north of $140 million domestically when it opens on International Women’s Day, Friday, March 8.


Hellboy
Opening Weekend Range: $17 – 25 million

PROS:

  • Guillermo del Toro’s 2004 and 2008 adaptations are well regarded among fans, having earned $59.6 million and $76 million, respectively, at the domestic box office. Comic book films have only gained in popularity since then, which could boost the profile of this reboot.
  • The casting of David Harbour (Stranger Things) has been generally well-received despite his having to take over the popular turn of Ron Perlman in the title role.

CONS:

  • With a complete change in cast and crew — plus the notable absence of del Toro’s involvement — fans are cautious in hopes for a film that stands up to the previous entries.
  • Opening one week after Shazam! (which is a notable breakout candidate) and two weeks before Avengers: Endgame will likely bottleneck this film’s potential.

Little
Opening Weekend Range: $12 – 18 million

PROS:

  • There aren’t many comedies on the docket this spring, creating a window for a solid counter-programmer against the higher profile titles in release.
  • Producer Will Packer has delivered a consistent string of successes appealing strongly to the African-American community, with his most recent hits including What Men WantNight SchoolBreaking In, and Girls Trip.

CONS:

  • The “wish fulfillment” concept played in recent female-driven comedies like Isn’t It RomanticWhat Men Want, and I Feel Pretty could create some fatigue when it comes to moviegoer interest in that sub-genre.

Missing Link
Opening Weekend Range: $7 – 15 million

PROS:

  • Laika Studios have developed a strong track record with critically and commercially acclaimed films like Kubo and the Two StringsThe BoxtrollsParaNormanCoraline, and Corpse Bride.
  • Opening in Dumbo‘s third weekend could distance it just enough for parents with young kids to be a viable target audience in mid-April.

CONS:

  • The box office under-performance of similar stop-motion films like Early Man and Shaun the Sheep leave us cautious in projections despite Laika’s exception-to-the-rule type of success. The young distribution history of Annapurna’s wide releases adds reasoning behind conservative forecasts.

8-Week Tracking

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Release Tracking % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Forecast % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
2/22/2019 Fighting with My Family $7,500,000 -6% $23,000,000 -8% 2,500 MGM
2/22/2019 How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World $48,000,000 -2% $170,000,000 -2% 4,000 Universal
3/1/2019 Greta n/a n/a n/a Focus Features
3/1/2019 Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral $23,000,000 -15% $58,000,000 -15% 2,300 Lionsgate
3/8/2019 Captain Marvel $160,000,000 $440,000,000 Disney / Marvel
3/15/2019 No Manches Frida 2 n/a n/a Lionsgate / Pantelion Films
3/15/2019 Five Feet Apart $11,000,000 $37,000,000 Lionsgate
3/15/2019 Wonder Park $8,000,000 $30,000,000 Paramount
3/22/2019 The Informer n/a n/a Aviron
3/22/2019 Us $42,000,000 $135,000,000 Universal
3/29/2019 Dumbo (2019) $57,000,000 -3% $170,000,000 -3% Disney
3/29/2019 Hotel Mumbai n/a n/a Bleecker Street
3/29/2019 Unplanned n/a n/a Pure Flix
4/5/2019 The Best of Enemies $10,000,000 $30,000,000 STX
4/5/2019 Pet Sematary (2019) $28,000,000 $65,000,000 Paramount
4/5/2019 Shazam! $48,000,000 7% $144,000,000 Warner Bros.
4/12/2019 After (2019) n/a n/a Aviron
4/12/2019 Hellboy (2019) $22,000,000 NEW $46,000,000 NEW Lionsgate / Summit
4/12/2019 Little $15,000,000 NEW $43,000,000 NEW Universal
4/12/2019 Missing Link $10,000,000 NEW $39,000,000 NEW Annapurna Pictures

Tracking and forecasts are subject to change each week as marketing, reviews, and other factors are taken into consideration.

Contact us for information about subscribing to Boxoffice.com’s suite of forecasting and data services.

Alex Edghill contributed to this report

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