This week’s report below focuses on three of the four wide releases currently scheduled for the second weekend of April.
First up, however, Captain Marvel appeared on traditional tracking for the first time this week — and early indicators are as strong as previously expected. The film’s Awareness, Interest, and First Choice levels are registering higher than comparable films Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 and Rogue One: A Star Wars Story at the same point before release. The upcoming MCU prequel is also trending ahead of other recent Marvel titles, suggesting more bullish prediction models are in play for now.
On our Trailer Impact surveys, Captain registered an 89 percent Average Positive Interest earlier this week — 2 percent higher than the forthcoming Spider-Man: Far from Home and just 5 percent behind Avengers: Endgame.
Contingent upon reviews closer to release, we continue to forecast Captain Marvel on track for an opening weekend north of $140 million domestically when it opens on International Women’s Day, Friday, March 8.
Opening Weekend Range: $17 – 25 million
- Guillermo del Toro’s 2004 and 2008 adaptations are well regarded among fans, having earned $59.6 million and $76 million, respectively, at the domestic box office. Comic book films have only gained in popularity since then, which could boost the profile of this reboot.
- The casting of David Harbour (Stranger Things) has been generally well-received despite his having to take over the popular turn of Ron Perlman in the title role.
- With a complete change in cast and crew — plus the notable absence of del Toro’s involvement — fans are cautious in hopes for a film that stands up to the previous entries.
- Opening one week after Shazam! (which is a notable breakout candidate) and two weeks before Avengers: Endgame will likely bottleneck this film’s potential.
Opening Weekend Range: $12 – 18 million
- There aren’t many comedies on the docket this spring, creating a window for a solid counter-programmer against the higher profile titles in release.
- Producer Will Packer has delivered a consistent string of successes appealing strongly to the African-American community, with his most recent hits including What Men Want, Night School, Breaking In, and Girls Trip.
- The “wish fulfillment” concept played in recent female-driven comedies like Isn’t It Romantic, What Men Want, and I Feel Pretty could create some fatigue when it comes to moviegoer interest in that sub-genre.
Opening Weekend Range: $7 – 15 million
- Laika Studios have developed a strong track record with critically and commercially acclaimed films like Kubo and the Two Strings, The Boxtrolls, ParaNorman, Coraline, and Corpse Bride.
- Opening in Dumbo‘s third weekend could distance it just enough for parents with young kids to be a viable target audience in mid-April.
- The box office under-performance of similar stop-motion films like Early Man and Shaun the Sheep leave us cautious in projections despite Laika’s exception-to-the-rule type of success. The young distribution history of Annapurna’s wide releases adds reasoning behind conservative forecasts.
|Release Date||Title||3-Day Wide Release Tracking||% Chg from Last Week||Domestic Total Forecast||% Chg from Last Week||Estimated Location Count||Distributor|
|2/22/2019||Fighting with My Family||$7,500,000||-6%||$23,000,000||-8%||2,500||MGM|
|2/22/2019||How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World||$48,000,000||-2%||$170,000,000||-2%||4,000||Universal|
|3/1/2019||Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral||$23,000,000||-15%||$58,000,000||-15%||2,300||Lionsgate|
|3/8/2019||Captain Marvel||$160,000,000||$440,000,000||Disney / Marvel|
|3/15/2019||No Manches Frida 2||n/a||n/a||Lionsgate / Pantelion Films|
|3/15/2019||Five Feet Apart||$11,000,000||$37,000,000||Lionsgate|
|3/29/2019||Hotel Mumbai||n/a||n/a||Bleecker Street|
|4/5/2019||The Best of Enemies||$10,000,000||$30,000,000||STX|
|4/5/2019||Pet Sematary (2019)||$28,000,000||$65,000,000||Paramount|
|4/12/2019||Hellboy (2019)||$22,000,000||NEW||$46,000,000||NEW||Lionsgate / Summit|
|4/12/2019||Missing Link||$10,000,000||NEW||$39,000,000||NEW||Annapurna Pictures|
Tracking and forecasts are subject to change each week as marketing, reviews, and other factors are taken into consideration.
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Alex Edghill contributed to this report