Long Range Forecast: Ad Astra and Rambo: Last Blood

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This week’s report welcomes two new additions to our Long Range Forecast covering wide openers slated for Friday, September 20. Excluded is Focus Features’ Downton Abbey film, which we’re withholding forecasts on until its release strategy is more clearly detailed.

Ad Astra
Opening Weekend Range: $15 – 25 million

PROS:

  • Brad Pitt and a solid ensemble cast could turn out to be significant draws among adult audiences, particularly with Pitt coming back to the cinema forefront in this summer’s Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood.
  • The film’s PLF and IMAX footprint should boost initial earnings with premium ticket prices in tow. The film’s release window could also be a strength with modest competition for adults and a decent gap between It: Chapter Two earlier in September and October’s Joker.

CONS:

  • The film’s release delays aren’t the most encouraging of signs, and it remains to be seen how strongly Disney markets the title after having inherited it in the Fox acquisition. We’re also cautious given last fall’s muted run by the acclaimed First Man.
  • Social media growth at this stage of tracking hasn’t stood out in a significant way considering it’s a novel adaptation, but there’s plenty of time for that to change once summer wraps up.

Rambo: Last Blood
Opening Weekend Range: $10 – 20 million

PROS:

  • Sylvester Stallone’s fan base should be a strength here as older male audiences have turned out to support several of his recent releases, most notably the Expendables franchise.

CONS:

  • It’s questionable whether or not this can repeat the kind of success 2008’s Rambo revival did given the recent saturation of similar nostalgic action franchises (which haven’t always met box office expectations).

8-Week Forecast

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Release Tracking % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Forecast % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
8/2/2019 Hobbs & Shaw $89,000,000   $218,000,000   4,200 Universal
8/9/2019 The Art of Racing In the Rain $8,500,000   $32,000,000   3,000 Fox
8/9/2019 Brian Banks n/a   n/a   n/a Bleecker Street
8/9/2019 Dora and the Lost City of Gold $28,000,000   $85,000,000   3,500 Paramount
8/9/2019 The Kitchen (2019) $11,500,000   $34,500,000   2,700 Warner Bros. / New Line
8/9/2019 Scary Stories to Tell In the Dark $11,000,000 10% $29,000,000 9% 2,400 Lionsgate / CBS Films
8/14/2019 The Angry Birds Movie 2 $19,000,000   $70,000,000     Sony / Columbia
8/16/2019 47 Meters Down: Uncaged $15,000,000   $39,000,000     Entertainment Studios
8/16/2019 Blinded By the Light n/a   n/a     Warner Bros.
8/16/2019 Good Boys $15,000,000   $43,000,000     Universal
8/16/2019 Where’d You Go, Bernadette $11,000,000   $45,000,000     United Artists Releasing
8/23/2019 Angel Has Fallen $17,000,000   $49,000,000     Lionsgate
8/23/2019 Overcomer $6,500,000   $24,000,000     Sony / AFFIRM Films
8/23/2019 Ready or Not n/a   n/a     Fox Searchlight
8/30/2019 Las Píldoras De Mi Novio (My Boyfriend’s Meds) n/a   n/a     Lionsgate
8/30/2019 PLAYMOBIL: The Movie $4,000,000   $10,000,000     STX
9/6/2019 It: Chapter 2 $136,000,000   $305,000,000     Warner Bros. / New Line
9/13/2019 The Goldfinch $10,000,000   $33,000,000     Warner Bros.
9/13/2019 Hustlers $13,000,000   $39,000,000     STX
9/20/2019 Ad Astra $20,000,000 NEW $65,000,000 NEW   Fox
9/20/2019 Downton Abbey n/a   n/a     Universal
9/20/2019 Rambo: Last Blood $14,500,000 NEW $35,000,000 NEW   Lionsgate

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Alex Edghill & Jesse Rifkin contributed to this report

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