This week’s edition of the Long Range Forecast takes a first look at the wide releases currently scheduled for the final weekend of September:
- Tom Cruise and director Doug Liman previously teamed up to great acclaim with Edge of Tomorrow. If marketing plays up that connection, it could help this film stand out.
- Based on the true story of a CIA recruit involved in the Iran-Contra affair, adult audiences familiar with the developments of that era could be attracted to this kind of smart, dramatic thriller in the fall season.
- Cruise’s box office drawing power in original dramatic films hasn’t been as strong as his franchises and genre fare. Even Edge of Tomorrow somewhat notoriously opened modestly before legging out a healthy box office run.
- The film will debut in a fairly crowded market, especially among the target male audience. The previous week’s Kingsman: The Golden Circle and the following week’s Blade Runner 2049 will likely cut into this film’s potential. Still, strong reviews and marketing could eventually shift expectations upward closer to a Black Mass-type of run given the talent involved.
Sony / Screen Gems
- The original film was a solid hit in 1990, earning over $61 million before adjusting for inflation. A recent revival of ’90s nostalgia could help this out on opening weekend.
- Teens and young adults not interested in the weekend’s other new offering will be the target demographic here, with Ellen Page serving as the main star attraction.
- Remakes and reboots have a hard time at the box office more often than not these days. 2015’s Poltergeist was a modest performer, while 2011’s The Thing was an outright misfire in its fall release.
- Nostalgia and counter-programming aside, Kingsman could still be attracting a sizable older teen/young adult audience in its second weekend when this releases.
This Week’s Changes & Other Notes
- Social media buzz for The Glass Castle has begun to pick up recently, but the studio’s lower-than-expected location count offsets a potential increase in forecasts at this time.
|Release Date||Title||3-Day Wide Opening||% Chg from Last Week||Domestic Total||% Chg from Last Week||Location Count||Distributor|
|8/11/2017||Annabelle: Creation||$27,000,000||$61,000,000||3,200||Warner Bros. / New Line|
|8/11/2017||The Glass Castle||$3,500,000||$10,500,000||1,400||Lionsgate|
|8/11/2017||The Nut Job 2: Nutty By Nature||$12,000,000||$39,000,000||-3%||3,250||Open Road|
|8/18/2017||The Adventurers||n/a||n/a||n/a||Well Go USA|
|8/18/2017||The Hitman’s Bodyguard||$19,000,000||$57,000,000||2,900||Lionsgate / Summit|
|8/18/2017||Logan Lucky||$12,000,000||$39,000,000||2,400||Bleecker Street|
|8/25/2017||All Saints||$4,000,000||$12,000,000||Sony / Columbia|
|8/25/2017||Birth of the Dragon||$2,500,000||$5,500,000||BH Tilt|
|8/25/2017||Leap!||$4,500,000||$15,800,000||The Weinstein Company|
|9/8/2017||Home Again||$12,000,000||$45,000,000||Open Road Films|
|9/8/2017||It||$40,000,000||$100,000,000||Warner Bros. / New Line|
|9/15/2017||All I See Is You||$6,500,000||$15,600,000||Open Road|
|9/22/2017||Friend Request||n/a||n/a||Entertainment Studios|
|9/22/2017||Kingsman: The Golden Circle||$39,000,000||$100,000,000||Fox|
|9/22/2017||The LEGO Ninjago Movie||$40,000,000||$138,000,000||Warner Bros.|
|9/29/2017||Flatliners (2017)||$11,000,000||NEW||$26,000,000||NEW||Sony / Screen Gems|
Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.