This week’s edition of the Long Range Forecast takes a first look at the wide releases currently scheduled for the final weekend of September:
American Made
Universal
PROS:
- Tom Cruise and director Doug Liman previously teamed up to great acclaim with Edge of Tomorrow. If marketing plays up that connection, it could help this film stand out.
- Based on the true story of a CIA recruit involved in the Iran-Contra affair, adult audiences familiar with the developments of that era could be attracted to this kind of smart, dramatic thriller in the fall season.
CONS:
- Cruise’s box office drawing power in original dramatic films hasn’t been as strong as his franchises and genre fare. Even Edge of Tomorrow somewhat notoriously opened modestly before legging out a healthy box office run.
- The film will debut in a fairly crowded market, especially among the target male audience. The previous week’s Kingsman: The Golden Circle and the following week’s Blade Runner 2049 will likely cut into this film’s potential. Still, strong reviews and marketing could eventually shift expectations upward closer to a Black Mass-type of run given the talent involved.
Flatliners
Sony / Screen Gems
PROS:
- The original film was a solid hit in 1990, earning over $61 million before adjusting for inflation. A recent revival of ’90s nostalgia could help this out on opening weekend.
- Teens and young adults not interested in the weekend’s other new offering will be the target demographic here, with Ellen Page serving as the main star attraction.
CONS:
- Remakes and reboots have a hard time at the box office more often than not these days. 2015’s Poltergeist was a modest performer, while 2011’s The Thing was an outright misfire in its fall release.
- Nostalgia and counter-programming aside, Kingsman could still be attracting a sizable older teen/young adult audience in its second weekend when this releases.
This Week’s Changes & Other Notes
- Social media buzz for The Glass Castle has begun to pick up recently, but the studio’s lower-than-expected location count offsets a potential increase in forecasts at this time.
The Forecast:
Release Date | Title | 3-Day Wide Opening | % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total | % Chg from Last Week | Location Count | Distributor |
8/11/2017 | Annabelle: Creation | $27,000,000 | $61,000,000 | 3,200 | Warner Bros. / New Line | ||
8/11/2017 | The Glass Castle | $3,500,000 | $10,500,000 | 1,400 | Lionsgate | ||
8/11/2017 | The Nut Job 2: Nutty By Nature | $12,000,000 | $39,000,000 | -3% | 3,250 | Open Road | |
8/18/2017 | The Adventurers | n/a | n/a | n/a | Well Go USA | ||
8/18/2017 | The Hitman’s Bodyguard | $19,000,000 | $57,000,000 | 2,900 | Lionsgate / Summit | ||
8/18/2017 | Logan Lucky | $12,000,000 | $39,000,000 | 2,400 | Bleecker Street | ||
8/25/2017 | All Saints | $4,000,000 | $12,000,000 | Sony / Columbia | |||
8/25/2017 | Birth of the Dragon | $2,500,000 | $5,500,000 | BH Tilt | |||
8/25/2017 | Leap! | $4,500,000 | $15,800,000 | The Weinstein Company | |||
9/8/2017 | Home Again | $12,000,000 | $45,000,000 | Open Road Films | |||
9/8/2017 | It | $40,000,000 | $100,000,000 | Warner Bros. / New Line | |||
9/15/2017 | All I See Is You | $6,500,000 | $15,600,000 | Open Road | |||
9/15/2017 | American Assassin | $10,000,000 | $25,000,000 | Lionsgate | |||
9/15/2017 | mother! | n/a | n/a | Paramount | |||
9/22/2017 | Friend Request | n/a | n/a | Entertainment Studios | |||
9/22/2017 | Kingsman: The Golden Circle | $39,000,000 | $100,000,000 | Fox | |||
9/22/2017 | The LEGO Ninjago Movie | $40,000,000 | $138,000,000 | Warner Bros. | |||
9/29/2017 | American Made | $15,000,000 | NEW | $50,500,000 | NEW | Universal | |
9/29/2017 | Flatliners (2017) | $11,000,000 | NEW | $26,000,000 | NEW | Sony / Screen Gems |
Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.
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