Long Range Forecast: ‘American Made’ & ‘Flatliners’

This week’s edition of the Long Range Forecast takes a first look at the wide releases currently scheduled for the final weekend of September:

American Made


  • Tom Cruise and director Doug Liman previously teamed up to great acclaim with Edge of Tomorrow. If marketing plays up that connection, it could help this film stand out.
  • Based on the true story of a CIA recruit involved in the Iran-Contra affair, adult audiences familiar with the developments of that era could be attracted to this kind of smart, dramatic thriller in the fall season.


  • Cruise’s box office drawing power in original dramatic films hasn’t been as strong as his franchises and genre fare. Even Edge of Tomorrow somewhat notoriously opened modestly before legging out a healthy box office run.
  • The film will debut in a fairly crowded market, especially among the target male audience. The previous week’s Kingsman: The Golden Circle and the following week’s Blade Runner 2049 will likely cut into this film’s potential. Still, strong reviews and marketing could eventually shift expectations upward closer to a Black Mass-type of run given the talent involved.

Sony / Screen Gems


  • The original film was a solid hit in 1990, earning over $61 million before adjusting for inflation. A recent revival of ’90s nostalgia could help this out on opening weekend.
  • Teens and young adults not interested in the weekend’s other new offering will be the target demographic here, with Ellen Page serving as the main star attraction.


  • Remakes and reboots have a hard time at the box office more often than not these days. 2015’s Poltergeist was a modest performer, while 2011’s The Thing was an outright misfire in its fall release.
  • Nostalgia and counter-programming aside, Kingsman could still be attracting a sizable older teen/young adult audience in its second weekend when this releases.

This Week’s Changes & Other Notes

  • Social media buzz for The Glass Castle has begun to pick up recently, but the studio’s lower-than-expected location count offsets a potential increase in forecasts at this time.

The Forecast:

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Location Count Distributor
8/11/2017 Annabelle: Creation $27,000,000 $61,000,000 3,200 Warner Bros. / New Line
8/11/2017 The Glass Castle $3,500,000 $10,500,000 1,400 Lionsgate
8/11/2017 The Nut Job 2: Nutty By Nature $12,000,000 $39,000,000 -3% 3,250 Open Road
8/18/2017 The Adventurers n/a n/a n/a Well Go USA
8/18/2017 The Hitman’s Bodyguard $19,000,000 $57,000,000 2,900 Lionsgate / Summit
8/18/2017 Logan Lucky $12,000,000 $39,000,000 2,400 Bleecker Street
8/25/2017 All Saints $4,000,000 $12,000,000 Sony / Columbia
8/25/2017 Birth of the Dragon $2,500,000 $5,500,000 BH Tilt
8/25/2017 Leap! $4,500,000 $15,800,000 The Weinstein Company
9/8/2017 Home Again $12,000,000 $45,000,000 Open Road Films
9/8/2017 It $40,000,000 $100,000,000 Warner Bros. / New Line
9/15/2017 All I See Is You $6,500,000 $15,600,000 Open Road
9/15/2017 American Assassin $10,000,000 $25,000,000 Lionsgate
9/15/2017 mother! n/a n/a Paramount
9/22/2017 Friend Request n/a n/a Entertainment Studios
9/22/2017 Kingsman: The Golden Circle $39,000,000 $100,000,000 Fox
9/22/2017 The LEGO Ninjago Movie $40,000,000 $138,000,000 Warner Bros.
9/29/2017 American Made $15,000,000 NEW $50,500,000 NEW Universal
9/29/2017 Flatliners (2017) $11,000,000 NEW $26,000,000 NEW Sony / Screen Gems

Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.

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