Long Range Forecast: ‘Annabelle: Creation,’ ‘The Glass Castle,’ & ‘The Nut Job 2: Nutty By Nature’

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This week’s Long Range Forecast sees the addition of three films scheduled for wide release on Friday, August 11.

Annabelle: Creation
Warner Bros. / New Line

PROS:

  • The first Conjuring spin-off was a solid hit in October 2014, earning over $84 million domestically.
  • Since then, The Conjuring 2 further buoyed the franchise’s popularity with a $102.5 million domestic run last summer.
  • August’s (seeming) lack of standout blockbuster offerings could work to this film’s advantage, especially considering the lack of horror hits so far in 2017.

CONS:

  • Initial buzz is relatively quiet right now, although that’s not unheard of in the horror genre this far from release.
  • Recent and past horror franchises have shown how vulnerable they are to diminishing returns as sequels are churned out at a quick rate.

The Glass Castle
Lionsgate

PROS:

  • Based on Jeannette Walls’ best-selling memoir, there’s an existing audience of fans to cull from.
  • Brie Larson’s rising star in the wake of her Oscar win last year — plus Woody Harrelson’s resurgence in high profile films — further aid appeal to adult audiences.

CONS:

  • It’s often very difficult for adult dramas to break out during this time of year as summer vacations come to an end.
  • Lionsgate could easily opt to release this in a more limited fashion, which make wide release forecasts volatile for the time being.

The Nut Job 2: Nutty By Nature
Open Road Films

PROS:

  • 2014’s first film was a surprise success, earning $64 million domestically with its winter release date.
  • As the last animated film scheduled to open before September 22’s LEGO Ninjago Movie, families with young children could drive staying power.

CONS:

  • This is the fifth major animated title to open within a two-month span. The family market will be well-satiated by this point, especially just two weeks out from The Emoji Movie and heading back into school season.
  • Although the first film was a financial winner for Open Road, its run didn’t suggest breakout demand for a sequel.

This Week’s Changes & Other Notes

  • Opening weekend expectations for Transformers: The Last Knight continue to ease, largely due to the shift to a Wednesday release. (Note: Previous charts in this column incorrectly listed $70 million as the three-day forecast. That has been corrected.)
  • Baby Driver and Despicable Me 3 continue to look like standout options going into 4th of July weekend. The former of the two is increasingly becoming a candidate for breakout status.
  • The House isn’t tracking as strongly as once projected, with social media buzz particularly soft so far.
  • Spider-Man: Homecoming tracking is generating a wide range of projections (as usual). While social media buzz remains very strong thus far, we’re not ruling out the possibility that Wonder Woman‘s incredible reception could have an indirect effect on enthusiasm for the next big superhero release. Still, pending strong reactions from early screenings, we expect big returns.
  • Wish Upon continues to give us pause as its social media trends trail those of previous summer horror sleepers.

Check out our eight-week wide release forecast in the table below.

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Location Count Distributor
6/21/2017 Transformers: The Last Knight $50,000,000 (FSS) $180,000,000 -4% 3,900 Paramount
6/28/2017 Baby Driver $15,000,000 $82,500,000 38% 3,000 Sony / TriStar
6/30/2017 Despicable Me 3 $86,000,000 15% $280,000,000 4% 4,200 Universal / Illumination
6/30/2017 The House (2017) $23,000,000 -12% $80,000,000 -16% 3,200 Warner Bros. / New Line
7/7/2017 Spider-Man: Homecoming $125,000,000 -7% $301,000,000 -7% Sony / Columbia
7/14/2017 War for the Planet of the Apes $54,000,000 $150,000,000 Fox
7/14/2017 Wish Upon $10,000,000 -9% $23,000,000 -10% Broad Green Pictures
7/21/2017 Dunkirk $60,000,000 $240,000,000 Warner Bros.
7/21/2017 Girls Trip $17,000,000 $60,000,000 Universal
7/21/2017 Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets $24,000,000 $70,000,000 STX Entertainment
7/28/2017 Atomic Blonde $27,500,000 $82,500,000 Focus Features
7/28/2017 The Emoji Movie: Express Yourself $27,000,000 $95,000,000 Sony / Columbia
8/4/2017 The Dark Tower $42,000,000 $107,000,000 Sony / Columbia
8/4/2017 Detroit n/a n/a Annapurna Pictures
8/4/2017 An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power n/a n/a Paramount
8/4/2017 Kidnap $5,000,000 NEW $12,000,000 NEW Aviron
8/11/2017 Annabelle: Creation $23,000,000 NEW $52,000,000 NEW Warner Bros. / New Line
8/11/2017 The Glass Castle $3,500,000 NEW $10,500,000 NEW Lionsgate
8/11/2017 The Nut Job 2: Nutty By Nature $12,000,000 NEW $40,000,000 NEW Open Road

Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.

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