Our look into 2018 continues with two weeks’ worth (February 23 and March 2) of new wide releases joining the Long Range Forecast, in addition to a handful of updates for January releases.
PROS:
- Annihilation will hope to mark the next sci-fi success from director Alex Garland (Ex Machina). The book’s fans and strong marketing will be key components to driving opening weekend, with the hope that staying power will follow. If everything fires on all cylinders, a run similar to Arrival isn’t out of the question.
- Game Night stands as one of the best options for a sleeper comedy hit during the early part of the year, a goal that would be aided by stars Jason Bateman and Rachel McAdams.
- Death Wish will appeal to fans of the original series as well as Bruce Willis’ own audience, potentially making it a solid counter-programmer against Red Sparrow in early March.
- Red Sparrow‘s source material gives the film built-in awareness among fans, while star Jennifer Lawrence and director Francis Lawrence (three Hunger Games films, I Am Legend) further bolster potential for a strong adult-oriented thriller.
CONS:
- In general, buzz for these new releases is (unsurprisingly) muted at this stage despite varying degrees of star names and existing brand power. This is typical early in the year as holiday holdovers and award season candidates dominate the immediate attention of most moviegoers. Future marketing in the coming months will be crucial toward determining which ones successfully counter-program and win over adult audiences.
The 8-Week Forecast:
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day Wide Opening | % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total | % Chg from Last Week | Location Count | Distributor |
| 1/12/2018 | The Commuter | $11,500,000 | -4% | $30,000,000 | -3% | 2,800 | Lionsgate |
| 1/12/2018 | Paddington 2 | $16,500,000 | -13% | $61,000,000 | -13% | 3,600 | Warner Bros. |
| 1/12/2018 | The Post (expansion) | $17,500,000 | -13% | $100,000,000 | +11% | 2,800 | Fox |
| 1/12/2018 | Proud Mary | $16,000,000 | -6% | $40,000,000 | -27% | 2,200 | Sony / Screen Gems |
| 1/19/2018 | 12 Strong | $13,000,000 | $42,000,000 | 2,300 | Warner Bros. | ||
| 1/19/2018 | Den of Thieves | $6,500,000 | $13,000,000 | 2,100 | STXfilms | ||
| 1/26/2018 | Maze Runner: The Death Cure | $24,000,000 | $65,000,000 | Fox | |||
| 2/2/2018 | Winchester | $10,000,000 | $28,000,000 | Lionsgate / CBS Films | |||
| 2/9/2018 | The 15:17 to Paris | $16,000,000 | $50,000,000 | Warner Bros. | |||
| 2/9/2018 | Fifty Shades Freed | $40,000,000 | $100,000,000 | Universal | |||
| 2/9/2018 | The Hurricane Heist | n/a | n/a | Entertainment Studios | |||
| 2/9/2018 | Peter Rabbit | $25,000,000 | $103,000,000 | Sony / Columbia | |||
| 2/16/2018 | Black Panther | $90,000,000 | $275,000,000 | Disney | |||
| 2/16/2018 | Early Man | $4,000,000 | $20,000,000 | Lionsgate / Summit | |||
| 2/16/2018 | Samson | $3,500,000 | $13,000,000 | Pure Flix | |||
| 2/23/2018 | Annihilation | $15,000,000 | NEW | $50,000,000 | NEW | Paramount | |
| 2/23/2018 | Game Night | $17,000,000 | NEW | $55,000,000 | NEW | Warner Bros. | |
| 2/23/2018 | The War with Grandpa | n/a | n/a | TWC / Dimension | |||
| 3/2/2018 | Death Wish | $13,500,000 | NEW | $34,000,000 | NEW | Annapurna / MGM | |
| 3/2/2018 | Red Sparrow | $26,000,000 | NEW | $84,000,000 | NEW | Fox |
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