Long Range Forecast: ‘The BFG’, ‘The Legend of Tarzan’ & ‘The Purge: Election Year’

Four new wide releases will debut over Independence Day weekend this year.  Disney and Dreamworks’ The BFG, Warner’s The Legend of Tarzan and Universal’s The Purge: Election Year will open on Friday July 1, while Sony’s The Shallows will debut two days earlier on Wednesday, June 29.  With four new wide releases scheduled for the same weekend and holdovers Fox’s Independence Day: Resurgence and Disney’s Finding Dory both expected to have a major presence at the Independence Day weekend box office as well, BoxOffice Pro feels it will be difficult for any of this year’s Independence Day weekend releases to have a break-out performance.

The BFG (Disney / DreamWorks)

PROS:

The BFG is adapted from Roald Dahl’s children’s book of the same name and should have a built-in audience as a result.

– While Steven Spielberg’s drawing power as a director has diminished over time, his presence obviously brings added attention to The BFG.

– Disney has had a tremendous start to 2016 and the studio is widely expected to see its winning streak continue into the summer.  The studio’s continued strength could help boost the performance of The BFG.

CONS:

The BFG will be opening in a very crowded marketplace and will have a tough task in opening between fellow Disney release Finding Dory and Universal’s The Secret Life of Pets.

The BFG has been performing modestly on Twitter thus far.

The Legend of Tarzan (Warner Bros.)

PROS:

– Alexander Skarsgård, Margot Robbie, Samuel L. Jackson & Christoph Waltz bring a level of star power to The Legend of Tarzan.

The Legend of Tarzan will hope to appeal to the same audiences that drove 2011’s Rise of the Planet of the Apes and 2014’s Dawn of the Planet of the Apes.

CONS:

The Legend of Tarzan will face direct competition from Independence Day: Resurgence over Independence Day weekend.

The Legend of Tarzan has been performing softly on Twitter.

– Similar to Warner’s Pan last year, re-presenting Tarzan may not be enough to exc.

The Purge: Election Year (Universal)

PROS:

– 2013’s The Purge and 2014’s The Purge: Anarchy were both successful at the box office with respective total domestic grosses of $64.5 million and $72.0 million.

The Purge: Election Year is hoping to get a boost from its election theme in an election year and from opening over Independence Day weekend.

CONS:

– There is the potential for sequel fatigue with The Purge: Election Year, as a third film could be one film too many for this franchise.

– The film has been performing very softly on Twitter.  On top of that, a sizable percentage of the film’s early Twitter activity has been negative in tone.

The Purge: Election Year will face very direct competition from both Independence Day: Resurgence and Sony’s The Shallows.

Check out our complete long range forecast in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
The BFG Jul 1, 2016 Disney / DreamWorks $31,000,000* $85,000,000
The Legend of Tarzan Jul 1, 2016 Warner Bros. $23,500,000* $50,000,000
The Purge: Election Year Jul 1, 2016 Universal $21,000,000* $42,000,000
The Shallows Jun 29, 2016 Sony / Columbia $11,200,000* $28,000,000
Independence Day: Resurgence Jun 24, 2016 Fox $68,000,000 $175,000,000
Free State of Jones Jun 24, 2016 STX Entertainment $11,500,000 $43,000,000
Finding Dory Jun 17, 2016 Disney $108,000,000 $390,000,000
Central Intelligence Jun 17, 2016 Warner Bros. / New Line $52,000,000 $155,000,000
The Conjuring 2 Jun 10, 2016 Warner Bros. / New Line $45,000,000 $105,000,000
Warcraft Jun 10, 2016 Universal $35,000,000 $78,000,000
Now You See Me 2 Jun 10, 2016 Lionsgate / Summit $23,000,000 $65,000,000
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows Jun 3, 2016 Paramount $53,000,000 $145,000,000
Me Before You Jun 3, 2016 Warner Bros. / New Line $15,000,000 $45,000,000
Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping Jun 3, 2016 Universal $10,000,000 $25,000,000
X-Men: Apocalypse May 27, 2016 Fox $115,000,000* $240,000,000
Alice Through the Looking Glass May 27, 2016 Disney $70,000,000* $170,000,000
The Angry Birds Movie May 20, 2016 Sony / Columbia $43,000,000 $140,000,000
Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising May 20, 2016 Universal $41,000,000 $110,000,000
The Nice Guys May 20, 2016 Warner Bros. $16,000,000 $60,000,000
Money Monster May 13, 2016 Sony / TriStar $9,500,000 $28,000,000
The Darkness May 13, 2016 High Top / BH Tilt $5,500,000 $12,000,000

* indicates a prediction for a four-day holiday weekend.

Shawn Robbins, Daniel Garris and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.

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