Long Range Forecast: Black and Blue, Plus More It: Chapter Two, Hustlers, and Other Updates

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This week’s update welcomes the addition of one new release slated to open Friday, October 25 as part of our look at the final weekend before holiday movie season kicks off in November. We also provide key updates on September’s high profile releases below.

Black and Blue
Opening Weekend Range: $10 – 15 million

PROS:

  • Stars Naomie Harris and Tyrese Gibson provide star presence in this LAPD cop drama that won’t face direct competition during its key release window in late October/early November. Strong reviews and word of mouth could push it as a counter-programming option.

  • Sony / Screen Gems have a solid track record with past autumn releases like When the Bough Breaks, The Perfect Guy, and No Good Deed.

CONS:

  • Some of the more controversial comparisons between this film’s narrative and real life cultural events could limit the overall potential of this film relative to those more escapism-leaning Screen Gems releases.

Notable Updates This Week

  • Following last week’s revision, forecasts for It: Chapter Two continue floating down to earth as our most recent models indicate the sequel/finale is trending below its 2017 predecessor. Still, it’s pacing well ahead of any other horror release on record and we can’t rule out a last minute pop of interest after the Labor Day weekend ahead — especially since the first film’s pre-sales began at an incomparable period before release relative to this chapter’s.

  • Conversely, STX’s Hustlers is looking more and more like a breakout candidate with a strong female interest base and healthier-than-expected metrics from male audiences of varying ages.

  • Recent industry tracking for Ad Astra and Rambo: Last Blood suggest it may not be as much of a runaway for the former title that weekend as we’ve been expecting — and could even switch. That said, we’re holding off on significant changes until after the Labor Day market has cleared and signs begin to firm up with both pics targeting older males (but Astra having a stronger chance to win over adult female moviegoers). Among the two, Astra‘s marketing push remains more impressive at this stage, and it will have the aid of an IMAX release.

  • Following the comedy’s first trailer release last week, our initial forecast for Jexi is available in the chart below. Based on preliminary trends, we’re expecting films like Long Shot, Stuber, and Don Jon to be close comps for the Lionsgate/CBS Films release. Some upside exists with regard to staying power if reviews prove positive, although Zombieland 2 will be its main competitor for moviegoers in search of laughs.

8-Week Forecast

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Range 3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Forecast % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
9/6/2019 It: Chapter Two $90,000,000 – $130,000,000 $105,000,000 -12% $255,000,000 -12% 4,400 Warner Bros. / New Line
9/13/2019 The Goldfinch $7,500,000 – $12,500,000 $9,000,000 -5% $29,000,000 -6% 3,000 Warner Bros.
9/13/2019 Hustlers $20,000,000 – $30,000,000 $27,000,000 29% $73,000,000 22% 3,100 STX
9/20/2019 Ad Astra $17,000,000 – $22,000,000 $20,000,000   $65,000,000     Fox
9/20/2019 Downton Abbey $14,000,000 – $19,000,000 $15,000,000   n/a     Universal
9/20/2019 Rambo: Last Blood $17,000,000 – $22,000,000 $17,000,000 17% $41,000,000 17%   Lionsgate
9/27/2019 Abominable $19,000,000 – $24,000,000 $22,500,000   $75,000,000     Universal
10/4/2019 Joker $70,000,000 – $95,000,000 $81,000,000   $180,000,000     Warner Bros.
10/11/2019 The Addams Family (2019) $16,000,000 – $21,000,000 $18,000,000   $70,000,000     United Artists Releasing
10/11/2019 The Current War (Expansion) n/a n/a   n/a     101 Studios
10/11/2019 Gemini Man $25,000,000 – $30,000,000 $28,000,000   $90,000,000     Paramount
10/11/2019 Jexi $7,000,000 – $12,000,000 $9,000,000 NEW $29,000,000 NEW   Lionsgate / CBS Films / Entertainment One
10/18/2019 Maleficent: Mistress of Evil $30,000,000 – $50,000,000 $37,000,000   $110,000,000     Disney
10/18/2019 Zombieland 2: Double Tap $24,000,000 – $34,000,000 $30,000,000   $77,000,000     Sony / Columbia
10/25/2019 Black and Blue $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 $12,000,000 NEW $35,000,000 NEW   Sony / Screen Gems
10/25/2019 Countdown n/a n/a   n/a     STX
10/25/2019 The Last Full Measure n/a n/a   n/a     Roadside Attractions

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Alex Edghill & Jesse Rifkin contributed to this report

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