Long Range Forecast — September 20, 2024
Transformers One | Paramount Pictures
Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $40M – $50M
The Transformers franchise returns to the big screen—albeit with some major changes—this September as Paramount releases Transformers One, the first theatrically released animated Transformers film since Transformers: The Movie in 1986. On top of eschewing live action, this latest film in the Transformers franchise takes audiences back centuries to the adolescent days of Optimus Prime, Megatron, and the rest as they get into adventures on their home planet—adventures that appear to flesh out the backstory of one-time friends Optimus Prime and Megatron and how they became bitter enemies.
As an animated spin-off, Transformers One is expected to perform on a different scale compared to its live-action counterparts. The live-action series’ grosses peaked with 2009’s Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen ($402.1M), and no Transformers film has crossed the $200M mark since 2014’s Age of Extinction ($245.4M). The series saw a rebound with 2023’s release of Transformers: Rise of the Beasts ($157M), an improvement over the franchise’s low point, 2018’s Bumblebee ($127M). Globally, the once-reliable live-action franchise is on the decline, having failed to reach the $500M benchmark over its two most recent releases.
Transformers Franchise Box Office History
- Transformers (July 2, 2007)
$70M Opening Weekend | $319M Domestic Total | $709M Global Total
- Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen (June 24, 2009)
$108M Opening Weekend | $402M Domestic Total | $836M Global Total
- Transformers: Dark of the Moon (June 29, 2011)
$97M Opening Weekend | $352M Domestic Total | $1.123Bn Global Total - Transformers: Age of Extinction (June 27, 2014)
$100M Opening Weekend | $245M Domestic Total | $1.104Bn Global Total - Transformers: The Last Knight (June 21, 2017)
$44M Opening Weekend | $130M Domestic Total | $605M Global Total - Bumblebee (December 21, 2018)
$21M Opening Weekend | $127M Domestic Total | $467M Global Total - Transformers: Rise of the Beasts (June 9, 2023)
$61M Opening Weekend | $157M Domestic Total | $438M Global Total
Transformers One could be stepping in right when the franchise needs a refresh. The Transformers fan base remains a large and loyal one, fed with a consistent diet of new toys and animated TV shows. With marketing for Transformers One yet to really rev up, fan reception is still largely up in the air, but if the fanbase likes what it sees closer to release, then it could easily drive Transformers One past 2015’s Hotel Transylvania 2 ($48.4M domestic opening, $169.7M domestic box office) to the biggest-ever September opening for an animated film.
Of course, animated films, for the most part, do not come out in September, with studios usually opting for a release corridor in the summer or centered around the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays. That could work out in Transformers One‘s favor; by the time it hits theaters, it will be the first animated wide release since Despicable Me 4 ($75M domestic opening) in early July. (Animation/live-action hybrid Harold and the Purple Crayon opened in early August but didn’t gain much traction, opening to $6M and falling out of the top ten by week 3.) With summer dominated by Despicable Me 4 and Inside Out 2 and the bulk of 2024’s remaining animated films (Disney’s Moana 2 and Mufasa, Warner Bros.’ The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim) coming out in November or December, Transformers One could benefit from a lack of family-movie competition during the fall.
Universal could have a spoiler in the mix with Dreamworks Animation’s The Wild Robot, which comes out the weekend after Transformers One. While it lacks the IP hook that Transformers One has, it is based on an extremely popular and award-winning children’s book series, so if reviews and word of mouth are positive enough, it might put a substantial dent in Transformers One‘s holdover earnings.
Tracking Updates [as of 8/23]
| Release Date | Title | Opening Weekend Range | Distributor |
| 8/30/24 | Afraid | $6 – $10M | Sony |
| 9/6/24 | Beetlejuice Beetlejuice | $85 – $115M | Warner Bros. |
| 9/13/24 | Speak No Evil | $12 – $20M | Universal |
| 9/13/24 | The Killer’s Game | $5-$10M | Lionsgate |
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