This week’s Long Range Forecast welcomes the final releases before the official summer season begins. April 28 is currently slated to see the debuts of The Circle, How to Be a Latin Lover, and Sleight.
Among the three, The Circle currently looks to have the best chance of opening the highest thanks to its built-in audience (fans of Dave Eggers’ book), encouraging social media activity at this stage, and star power (Emma Watson, Tom Hanks, and Star Wars‘ John Boyega). Latin Lover is looking to counter-program with its appeal to Latino audiences, while Sleight will aim for teens and young twenty-somethings — an audience it may face up an uphill battle finding against The Circle.
This Week’s Changes & Other Additions
Notable among this week’s changes to films we’re publicly tracking:
- Beauty and the Beast continues to dominate social media, traditional tracking, and presales reports. We’ve lowered our domestic total forecast to more accurately reflect potential front-loading given the immense buzz behind the film. The film’s reviews will still be key to its long term outlook, though.
- Buzz for The Belko Experiment has stalled somewhat, and will likely have a hard time breaking out so soon after the wildly successful Get Out.
- Slamma Jamma and Phoenix Forgotten have been added to the wide release slate, but we are not currently offering public forecasts given their limited distributor histories.
- The Promise has been added to the wide release slate, but we currently expect a low profile run.
Check out our forecasts for these and other upcoming films in the table below.
|Release Date||Title||3-Day Wide Opening||% Chg from Last Week||Domestic Total||% Chg from Last Week||Location Count||Distributor|
|3/10/2017||Kong: Skull Island||$40,000,000||$113,000,000||3,800||Warner Bros.|
|3/17/2017||Beauty and the Beast (2017)||$144,000,000||$420,000,000||-11%||4,000||Disney|
|3/17/2017||The Belko Experiment||$5,000,000||-29%||$10,500,000||-34%||1,650||High Top Releasing|
|3/24/2017||Life (2017)||$15,000,000||$50,000,000||Sony / Columbia|
|3/24/2017||Slamma Jamma||n/a||NEW||n/a||NEW||River Rain|
|3/31/2017||The Boss Baby||$24,000,000||$83,000,000||Fox / DreamWorks Animation|
|3/31/2017||Ghost in the Shell (2017)||$40,000,000||$105,000,000||Paramount / DreamWorks|
|3/31/2017||Step Sisters||n/a||n/a||Broad Green Pictures|
|3/31/2017||The Zookeeper’s Wife||$5,000,000||$19,000,000||Focus Features|
|4/7/2017||The Case for Christ||$3,500,000||$14,000,000||Pure Flix|
|4/7/2017||Going In Style (2017)||$12,500,000||$49,000,000||Warner Bros. / New Line|
|4/7/2017||Smurfs: The Lost Village||$21,500,000||$78,500,000||Sony / Columbia|
|4/14/2017||The Fate of the Furious||$110,000,000||$264,000,000||Universal|
|4/21/2017||Born in China||$5,500,000||$19,000,000||Disneynature|
|4/21/2017||LEAP!||$6,000,000||$19,000,000||The Weinstein Company|
|4/21/2017||Phoenix Forgotten||n/a||NEW||n/a||NEW||Cinelou Films|
|4/21/2017||The Promise||$2,250,000||NEW||$4,000,000||NEW||Open Road Films|
|4/28/2017||The Circle||$13,000,000||NEW||$40,000,000||NEW||STX Entertainment|
|4/28/2017||How to Be a Latin Lover||$6,500,000||NEW||$23,000,000||NEW||Lionsgate|
Shawn Robbins, Alex Edghill, and Jesse Rifkin contributed to this report.
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