Long Range Forecast: ‘Daddy’s Home 2’ & ‘Murder on the Orient Express’

This week’s Long Range Forecast welcomes two new wide releases slated to open on Friday, November 10: Daddy’s Home 2 and Kenneth Branagh’s adaptation of Murder on the Orient Express. Our initial analysis:

PROS:

  • Daddy’s Home 2 (Paramount) is well-positioned to benefit from holiday season family crowds with its current release date. The return of Will Ferrell and Mark Wahlberg, plus the additions of Mel Gibson and John Lithgow, could also bring back those who enjoyed the original surprise hit comedy.
  • Murder on the Orient Express (Fox) boasts an impressive ensemble cast and intriguing early marketing that could solidify this as a viable counter-programming option for adult audiences heading into the holidays.

CONS:

  • Daddy’s Home 2 will need to buck the trend of comedic sequels, which have performed significantly below their original predecessors in recent years (see Zoolander 2Horrible Bosses 2Dumb and Dumber ToTed 2, etc.). Opening in between two major superhero films and Pixar’s Coco two weeks later could additionally cut into the target family audience.
  • We’d like to see more social media activity from Murder on the Orient Express in the coming weeks, but its modest signs of growth so far aren’t necessarily a bad sign given the target older audience. The film’s primary concern could be facing off against a slew of award season contenders throughout November and December if many of them prove to be mainstream friendly.

This Week’s Changes and Other Notes

  • Next week’s openers still promise to bring a surge of excellent counter-programming. Kingsman: The Golden Circle continues to track highly on the heels of strong marketing and goodwill. LEGO Ninjago should benefit from the lack of family options since summer, but initial buzz is notably lower than LEGO Batman and LEGO Movie, so we’re slightly lowering expectations for opening weekend.
  • Early reviews are very encouraging for American Made, with social media growth approaching the pre-release levels of last year’s The Accountant. While the film is tracking upward, we remain a bit conservative given the wealth of competition for male audiences in late September/early October.
  • STXfilms has shifted the release date for A Bad Moms Christmas from Friday, November 3 to Wednesday, November 1. Our three-day (FSS) opening forecast has been adjusted below.

The Long Range Forecast:

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Location Count Distributor
9/22/2017 Friend Request n/a n/a 3,000 Entertainment Studios
9/22/2017 Kingsman: The Golden Circle $46,000,000 10% $118,000,000 10% 3,900 Fox
9/22/2017 The LEGO Ninjago Movie $41,000,000 -4% $146,600,000 4,000 Warner Bros.
9/29/2017 American Made $16,000,000 7% $54,000,000 7% 3,000 Universal
9/29/2017 Flatliners (2017) $12,000,000 $29,000,000 3,000 Sony / Screen Gems
9/29/2017 A Question of Faith n/a n/a n/a Pure Flix
9/29/2017 Til Death Do Us Part n/a NEW n/a NEW n/a Novus
10/6/2017 Blade Runner 2049 $44,000,000 $115,000,000 Warner Bros.
10/6/2017 The Mountain Between Us $8,000,000 $25,000,000 Fox
10/6/2017 My Little Pony (2017) $7,500,000 $21,500,000 Lionsgate
10/13/2017 The Foreigner $10,000,000 $27,700,000 STXfilms
10/13/2017 Happy Death Day $20,000,000 $40,000,000 Universal / Blumhouse
10/13/2017 Marshall $12,000,000 $39,000,000 Open Road
10/13/2017 Professor Marston & the Wonder Woman n/a NEW n/a NEW Annapurna Pictures
10/20/2017 Geostorm $12,000,000 $27,800,000 Warner Bros.
10/20/2017 Only the Brave $16,000,000 $55,000,000 Sony / Columbia
10/20/2017 Same Kind of Different As Me $4,500,000 $12,000,000 Pure Flix
10/20/2017 The Snowman $11,000,000 $31,000,000 Universal
10/20/2017 Tyler Perry’s Boo 2! A Madea Halloween $23,500,000 $59,300,000 Lionsgate
10/27/2017 All I See Is You n/a n/a Open Road
10/27/2017 Jigsaw $10,000,000 $21,600,000 Lionsgate
10/27/2017 Suburbicon $14,000,000 $45,000,000 Paramount
10/27/2017 Thank You for Your Service $5,000,000 $17,500,000 Universal
11/1/2017 A Bad Moms Christmas $22,000,000 -27% $85,000,000 STXfilms
11/3/2017 Thor: Ragnarok $100,000,000 $250,000,000 Disney
11/10/2017 Daddy’s Home 2 $30,000,000 NEW $95,000,000 NEW Paramount
11/10/2017 Murder on the Orient Express $23,500,000 NEW $84,600,000 NEW Fox

Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.

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