This week’s Long Range Forecast welcomes two new wide releases slated to open on Friday, November 10: Daddy’s Home 2 and Kenneth Branagh’s adaptation of Murder on the Orient Express. Our initial analysis:
- Daddy’s Home 2 (Paramount) is well-positioned to benefit from holiday season family crowds with its current release date. The return of Will Ferrell and Mark Wahlberg, plus the additions of Mel Gibson and John Lithgow, could also bring back those who enjoyed the original surprise hit comedy.
- Murder on the Orient Express (Fox) boasts an impressive ensemble cast and intriguing early marketing that could solidify this as a viable counter-programming option for adult audiences heading into the holidays.
- Daddy’s Home 2 will need to buck the trend of comedic sequels, which have performed significantly below their original predecessors in recent years (see Zoolander 2, Horrible Bosses 2, Dumb and Dumber To, Ted 2, etc.). Opening in between two major superhero films and Pixar’s Coco two weeks later could additionally cut into the target family audience.
- We’d like to see more social media activity from Murder on the Orient Express in the coming weeks, but its modest signs of growth so far aren’t necessarily a bad sign given the target older audience. The film’s primary concern could be facing off against a slew of award season contenders throughout November and December if many of them prove to be mainstream friendly.
This Week’s Changes and Other Notes
- Next week’s openers still promise to bring a surge of excellent counter-programming. Kingsman: The Golden Circle continues to track highly on the heels of strong marketing and goodwill. LEGO Ninjago should benefit from the lack of family options since summer, but initial buzz is notably lower than LEGO Batman and LEGO Movie, so we’re slightly lowering expectations for opening weekend.
- Early reviews are very encouraging for American Made, with social media growth approaching the pre-release levels of last year’s The Accountant. While the film is tracking upward, we remain a bit conservative given the wealth of competition for male audiences in late September/early October.
- STXfilms has shifted the release date for A Bad Moms Christmas from Friday, November 3 to Wednesday, November 1. Our three-day (FSS) opening forecast has been adjusted below.
The Long Range Forecast:
|Release Date||Title||3-Day Wide Opening||% Chg from Last Week||Domestic Total||% Chg from Last Week||Location Count||Distributor|
|9/22/2017||Friend Request||n/a||n/a||3,000||Entertainment Studios|
|9/22/2017||Kingsman: The Golden Circle||$46,000,000||10%||$118,000,000||10%||3,900||Fox|
|9/22/2017||The LEGO Ninjago Movie||$41,000,000||-4%||$146,600,000||4,000||Warner Bros.|
|9/29/2017||Flatliners (2017)||$12,000,000||$29,000,000||3,000||Sony / Screen Gems|
|9/29/2017||A Question of Faith||n/a||n/a||n/a||Pure Flix|
|9/29/2017||Til Death Do Us Part||n/a||NEW||n/a||NEW||n/a||Novus|
|10/6/2017||Blade Runner 2049||$44,000,000||$115,000,000||Warner Bros.|
|10/6/2017||The Mountain Between Us||$8,000,000||$25,000,000||Fox|
|10/6/2017||My Little Pony (2017)||$7,500,000||$21,500,000||Lionsgate|
|10/13/2017||Happy Death Day||$20,000,000||$40,000,000||Universal / Blumhouse|
|10/13/2017||Professor Marston & the Wonder Woman||n/a||NEW||n/a||NEW||Annapurna Pictures|
|10/20/2017||Only the Brave||$16,000,000||$55,000,000||Sony / Columbia|
|10/20/2017||Same Kind of Different As Me||$4,500,000||$12,000,000||Pure Flix|
|10/20/2017||Tyler Perry’s Boo 2! A Madea Halloween||$23,500,000||$59,300,000||Lionsgate|
|10/27/2017||All I See Is You||n/a||n/a||Open Road|
|10/27/2017||Thank You for Your Service||$5,000,000||$17,500,000||Universal|
|11/1/2017||A Bad Moms Christmas||$22,000,000||-27%||$85,000,000||STXfilms|
|11/10/2017||Daddy’s Home 2||$30,000,000||NEW||$95,000,000||NEW||Paramount|
|11/10/2017||Murder on the Orient Express||$23,500,000||NEW||$84,600,000||NEW||Fox|
Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.