This week’s Long Range Forecast is joined by three new wide releases slated to close out the month of June: Baby Driver (opening Wednesday, June 28), followed by Despicable Me 3 and The House (both opening Friday, June 30). Our initial analysis and forecast:
Despicable Me 3
Universal / Illumination
- The immense success of the first two films, plus Minions, has turned this series into the biggest animated franchise at the box office since the days of Shrek. Collectively, the three films have earned more than $955 million in North America and $2.67 billion globally.
- Arguably the most popular aspect of the franchise has proven to be the aforementioned minion characters, whose cuteness and comedy hijinks have become a pillar of the films’ appeal to audiences — especially young kids.
- Being distanced two weeks away from Pixar’s Cars 3 gives it enough breathing room to still generate a big opening without severely direct competition. As the last major animated release until The Emoji Movie in late July, this should again do very well with family audiences throughout the heart of summer.
- We’ve said it before, but it still applies: diminished returns are a historical guarantee for most franchises after a certain point. We expect that to be the case here, but in relative terms, this will still be one of the biggest box office hits of the summer and could again be a challenger for the $1 billion worldwide club.
- This element won’t have a significant impact on very young audiences, but the release of Spider-Man: Homecoming in its second weekend could slightly cut into the young tween crowd that has served as a distant secondary audience for this series in the past.
Warner Bros. / New Line
- The comedy pairing of Will Ferrell and Amy Poehler offers significant commercial potential. Poehler especially has seen her drawing power rise in recent years thanks to the success of TV’s Parks and Recreation and 2015’s Sisters. Ferrell is also fresh off one his biggest career hits in Daddy’s Home.
- As an R-rated comedy appealing to both men and women (and parents), this could have broad appeal if word of mouth is healthy.
- Unfortunately, Ferrell’s drawing power isn’t quite as strong as it was ten years ago. That’s not necessarily a negative, but it does increase the need for positive reviews and/or word of mouth to help this film catch on with audiences.
- Initial social media buzz is quite underwhelming, particularly on Facebook. Still, as an original comedy, that’s not necessarily something that can’t or won’t be improved upon once the film’s release is closer.
Sony / Columbia
- Initial reviews are very encouraging as the film already sits at 100 percent from 22 critics’ entries on Rotten Tomatoes.
- The ensemble cast of both veterans (Jamie Foxx, Kevin Spacey, Jon Hamm) and rising stars (Ansel Elgort and Lily James) could help drive interest (no pun intended) across a variety of moviegoers.
- Director Edgar Wright has a loyal fan following thanks to his successful and beloved films Shaun of the Dead, Hot Fuzz, The World’s End, and Scott Pilgrim vs. the World.
- As one of the few original films releasing this summer, audiences may welcome the reprieve offered by a lite-hearted action/thriller that isn’t CG-reliant or part of a franchise. We think this has sleeper hit potential written all over it if marketing can back up the product.
- Initial social media buzz isn’t exactly on fire (notably on Facebook). Again, for an original film, there’s plenty of time for that to turn around.
- Despite his loyal following, Wright’s resume is fairly limited in terms of box office grosses (although that’s not a bad thing considering the low budgets he’s typically worked with). In fairness, this could expand his potential audience. If there’s a director due for a breakout box office success, it’s him.
This Week’s Changes & Other Notes
- Dead Awake has been added to the release slate for May 12, but we’re not currently offering public predictions due to the distributor’s limited history and an unconfirmed location count.
- We continue to see mixed signals for King Arthur with the level of competition in the market as it tracks in line with The Great Wall and Gods of Egypt. Conversely, Snatched should benefit from Mother’s Day crowds next weekend and now appears likely to pull off an upset over King Arthur for a second place finish behind Guardians‘ second frame.
- After initially stronger results last week, tracking for Alien: Covenant declined a few ticks this week with interest levels now slightly trailing those of Terminator: Genisys and Independence Day: Resurgence at the same point before release. In fairness, reviews still remain key to opening weekend buzz when the embargo lifts over the next few days.
- Social media buzz for Everything, Everything is slowly increasing our projections. Initial tracking for the same weekend’s Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul is quite underwhelming, though.
- First industry tracking for Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales is somewhat stronger than once expected, largely thanks to a strong ad campaign and positive buzz in recent weeks. If healthy reviews/word of mouth can back those up, the franchise may surpass the $200 million domestic line again, which would be a big win for Disney considering its additional overseas potential.
- Although TWC still has Amityville: The Awakening on its slate for a June 30 release, we’re holding off on forecasts given the film’s history of multiple delays and an absence of marketing.
Check out our 8-week forecast in the table below.
|Release Date||Title||3-Day Wide Opening||% Chg from Last Week||Domestic Total||% Chg from Last Week||Location Count||Distributor|
|5/12/2017||King Arthur: Legend of the Sword||$21,000,000||-9%||$61,200,000||-9%||3,600||Warner Bros.|
|5/19/2017||Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul||$6,000,000||-14%||$20,600,000||-14%||3,200||Fox|
|5/19/2017||Everything, Everything||$11,000,000||29%||$33,650,000||29%||2,600||Warner Bros.|
|5/26/2017||Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales||$68,000,000 (FSS)
|6/2/2017||Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie||$28,000,000||$93,500,000||Fox / DreamWorks Animation|
|6/2/2017||Wonder Woman||$83,000,000||$225,000,000||Warner Bros.|
|6/9/2017||It Comes At Night||$12,000,000||$39,000,000||A24|
|6/9/2017||The Mummy (2017)||$50,000,000||$143,000,000||Universal|
|6/16/2017||47 Meters Down||n/a||n/a||Entertainment Studios|
|6/16/2017||All Eyez On Me||$18,000,000||$49,000,000||Lionsgate / Summit|
|6/16/2017||Cars 3||$49,000,000||$180,000,000||Disney / Pixar|
|6/23/2017||Transformers: The Last Knight||$79,000,000||$195,000,000||Paramount|
|6/28/2017||Baby Driver||$15,000,000||NEW||$50,000,000||NEW||Sony / TriStar|
|6/30/2017||Amityville: The Awakening||$8,500,000||NEW||$18,000,000||NEW||TWC / Dimension|
|6/30/2017||Despicable Me 3||$75,000,000||NEW||$270,000,000||NEW||Universal / Illumination|
|6/30/2017||The House (2017)||$28,000,000||NEW||$126,000,000||NEW||Warner Bros. / New Line|
Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.
Note: The original publication of this story listed The House as a PG-13 comedy. It is rated R and our analysis has been updated to reflect that.
Share this post