Long Range Forecast: “Don’t Breathe,” “Hands Of Stone,” & “Mechanic: Resurrection”

For the sixth weekend in a row, August 26 will see three new films open. Screen Gems will unveil its suspense-thriller Don’t Breathe, Weinstein Company introduces its Roberto Duran biopic Hands Of Stone, while Lionsgate/Summit hopes for riches with the Jason Statham-led Mechanic: Ressurection.

Don’t Breathe (Screen Gems)

PROS:

– Early social media buzz has been very strong on Facebook, already seeing it way ahead of others in the genre in 2016 so far including The Forest and The Boy.

– The film premiered at South By Southwest in March and received largely positive reviews by all accounts.

– Director Fede Alvarez directed the reboot of Evil Dead in 2013 which was largely successful and will reteam with Evil Dead producer Sam Raimi here for Don’t Breathe.

CONS:

– Outside of Sam Raimi there is a lack of star power and name recognition associated with film.

– The market is flooded with films, 18 wide releases in six weeks, that coupled with the inevitable downturn in the box office should severely limit its breakout potential even if it does connect with audiences.

Hands Of Stone (Weinstein Company)

PROS:

– Roberto Duran is a boxing legend, even to North American audiences, and the depiction of his life story including famous bouts with Sugar Ray Leonard should be of interest to boxing fans.

CONS:

– The audiences may be tired of biopic films as this will mark the third in four weeks.

– The film has been on the shelf for two and a half years as it wrapped in early 2014 and sat for an entire year before Weinstein picked up its distribution rights. It smells like a dump by Weinstein here and there must be a reason for it — either it didn’t test well or they simply doesn’t have the chops to appeal to a wide demographic. Regardless it’s going to have an exceedingly hard time making it out of mid-single digits.

Mechanic: Resurrection (Lionsgate/Summit)

PROS:

– The Mechanic performed well internationally with just over $60 million in ticket sales globally against a reported budget of $40 million. While that hardly screams sequel in light of Statham’s past successes in the genre, specifically with the similar Transporter franchise, it is clear that Lionsgate/Summit are pushing for a similar trajectory here. The Transporter films grossed $44 million, $85 million and $109 million worldwide from first to third respectively.

– Jason Statham has proven himself many times at being able to fill seats in the historically slow end of August/Labor Day weekends with films such as WAR, the Expendables franchise, Death Race, and Crank.

CONS:

– Statham’s draw as an action star appears to be waning in recent years. The last time he has managed to top-line a film that grossed more than $30 million domestically was The Transporter 2 way back in 2008.

Check out our complete long range forecast in the table below.

* indicates a prediction for a four-day holiday weekend.