Long Range Forecast: “Don’t Breathe,” “Hands Of Stone,” & “Mechanic: Resurrection”

For the sixth weekend in a row, August 26 will see three new films open. Screen Gems will unveil its suspense-thriller Don’t Breathe, Weinstein Company introduces its Roberto Duran biopic Hands Of Stone, while Lionsgate/Summit hopes for riches with the Jason Statham-led Mechanic: Ressurection.

Don’t Breathe (Screen Gems)


– Early social media buzz has been very strong on Facebook, already seeing it way ahead of others in the genre in 2016 so far including The Forest and The Boy.

– The film premiered at South By Southwest in March and received largely positive reviews by all accounts.

– Director Fede Alvarez directed the reboot of Evil Dead in 2013 which was largely successful and will reteam with Evil Dead producer Sam Raimi here for Don’t Breathe.


– Outside of Sam Raimi there is a lack of star power and name recognition associated with film.

– The market is flooded with films, 18 wide releases in six weeks, that coupled with the inevitable downturn in the box office should severely limit its breakout potential even if it does connect with audiences.

Hands Of Stone (Weinstein Company)


– Roberto Duran is a boxing legend, even to North American audiences, and the depiction of his life story including famous bouts with Sugar Ray Leonard should be of interest to boxing fans.


– The audiences may be tired of biopic films as this will mark the third in four weeks.

– The film has been on the shelf for two and a half years as it wrapped in early 2014 and sat for an entire year before Weinstein picked up its distribution rights. It smells like a dump by Weinstein here and there must be a reason for it — either it didn’t test well or they simply doesn’t have the chops to appeal to a wide demographic. Regardless it’s going to have an exceedingly hard time making it out of mid-single digits.

Mechanic: Resurrection (Lionsgate/Summit)


– The Mechanic performed well internationally with just over $60 million in ticket sales globally against a reported budget of $40 million. While that hardly screams sequel in light of Statham’s past successes in the genre, specifically with the similar Transporter franchise, it is clear that Lionsgate/Summit are pushing for a similar trajectory here. The Transporter films grossed $44 million, $85 million and $109 million worldwide from first to third respectively.

– Jason Statham has proven himself many times at being able to fill seats in the historically slow end of August/Labor Day weekends with films such as WAR, the Expendables franchiseDeath Race, and Crank.


– Statham’s draw as an action star appears to be waning in recent years. The last time he has managed to top-line a film that grossed more than $30 million domestically was The Transporter 2 way back in 2008.

Check out our complete long range forecast in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
Don’t Breathe Aug 26, 2016 Screen Gems $9,000,000 $22,000,000
Hands Of Stone Aug 26, 2016 Weinstein Company $5,000,000 $14,000,000
Mechanic: Resurrection Aug 26, 2016 Lionsgate/Summit $8,000,000 $20,000,000
Ben-Hur Aug 19, 2016 Paramount $19,000,000 $55,000,000
Kubo and the Two Strings Aug 19, 2016 Focus $13,500,000 $52,000,000
War Dogs Aug 19, 2016 Warner Bros. $19,000,000 $58,000,000
Pete’s Dragon Aug 12, 2016 Disney $33,000,000 $117,000,000
Sausage Party Aug 12, 2016 Sony / Columbia $25,000,000 $60,000,000
Florence Foster Jenkins Aug 12, 2016 Paramount $10,000,000 $45,000,000
Suicide Squad Aug 5, 2016 Warner Bros. $98,000,000 $275,000,000
The Founder Aug 5, 2016 Weinstein Company $8,500,000 $32,000,000
Nine Lives Aug 5, 2016 EuropaCorp $9,000,000 $33,000,000
Jason Bourne Jul 29, 2016 Universal $65,000,000 $195,000,000
Bad Moms Jul 29, 2016 STX Entertainment $21,000,000 $70,000,000
Nerve Jul 27, 2016 Lionsgate $7,500,000 $20,000,000
Star Trek Beyond Jul 22, 2016 Paramount  $56,000,000 $159,000,000
Ice Age: Collision Course Jul 22, 2016 Fox  $39,000,000 $133,000,000
Lights Out Jul 22, 2016 Warner Bros.  $10,000,000 $25,000,000
Ghostbusters Jul 15, 2016 Sony / Columbia $53,000,000 $142,000,000
The Infiltrator Jul 13, 2016 Broad Green Pictures $6,000,000 $20,000,000
The Secret Life of Pets Jul 8, 2016 Universal $69,000,000 $277,000,000
Mike & Dave Need Wedding Dates Jul 8, 2016 Fox $12,000,000 $32,000,000

* indicates a prediction for a four-day holiday weekend.

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