Long Range Forecast: ‘Sausage Party’, ‘Florence Foster Jenkins’ & ‘Pete’s Dragon’

Three new wide releases will open on August 12 this year: Sony / Columbia’s irreverent animated tale Sausage Party, Paramount’s biopic Florence Foster Jenkins and Disney’s family-friendly Pete’s Dragon.

Sausage Party (Sony/Columbia)

PROS:

– Seth Rogen and friends have proved to be among the strongest and most consistent draws over the past 10 years in the comedic genres.

– With sequels being plentiful this summer season, this should prove to be a very original and different offering which could resonate with audiences.

– Social media awareness is strong for the film, especially on Facebook.

CONS:

– Animated films targeting adults have traditionally done very poorly at the box office in North America, whether it be imports from Japan or home grown content. Adam Sandler’s Eight Crazy Nights comes to mind, which had Sandler at the height of his box office drawing power and still failed to even hit $10 million on opening weekend. This will be the first 3D animated R-rated movie ever released wide in North America. South Park: Bigger, Longer, and Uncut opened to just $11 million with its R-rating despite being based on the hugely popular TV show of the same name.

– Seth Rogen’s appeal has been waning in recent years with numerous misses littering his once-stellar record including The Guilt TripThe Night Before and Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising all under-performing.

Florence Foster Jenkins (Paramount)

PROS:

– Meryl Streep is one of the largest box office draws for older audiences in North America.

– With a summer full of big action films or family friendly offerings, a touching film based on a true story appealing to older audiences could potentially do very well as a counter-programming alternative.

CONS:

– Meryl Streep’s last wide release was Ricki And The Flash last August which opened to just $6.6 million and targeted a near-identical audience.

– It will be opening on the heels of The Founder, another biopic film just the week before which will tap the same movie-goers and could dip into its receipts.

Pete’s Dragon (Disney)

PROS:

– Disney has done very well with remakes of their classic titles over the past couple years with The Jungle Book and Cinderella coming to mind. The original Pete’s Dragon opened in 1977.

– With the kind of success Disney has had in 2016 so far it’s hard to bet against any of their releases at this point.

CONS:

– Social media has been muted so far. By comparison, The Jungle Book had over 700k likes two months from release, while Pete has just over 30k.

– The original film is not nearly as beloved (or remembered) as many in the Disney vault including Jungle Book and Cinderella.

Check out our complete long range forecast in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
Pete’s Dragon Aug 12, 2016 Disney $33,000,000 $117,000,000
Sausage Party Aug 12, 2016 Sony / Columbia $25,000,000 $60,000,000
Florence Foster Jenkins Aug 12, 2016 Paramount $10,000,000 $45,000,000
Suicide Squad Aug 5, 2016 Warner Bros. $98,000,000 $275,000,000
The Founder Aug 5, 2016 Weinstein Company $8,500,000 $32,000,000
Nine Lives Aug 5, 2016 EuropaCorp $9,000,000 $33,000,000
Jason Bourne Jul 29, 2016 Universal $65,000,000 $195,000,000
Bad Moms Jul 29, 2016 STX Entertainment $21,000,000 $70,000,000
Nerve Jul 27, 2016 Lionsgate $7,500,000 $20,000,000
Star Trek Beyond Jul 22, 2016 Paramount  $56,000,000 $159,000,000
Ice Age: Collision Course Jul 22, 2016 Fox  $39,000,000 $133,000,000
Lights Out Jul 22, 2016 Warner Bros.  $10,000,000 $25,000,000
Ghostbusters Jul 15, 2016 Sony / Columbia $63,000,000 $178,000,000
The Infiltrator Jul 13, 2016 Broad Green Pictures $6,000,000 $20,000,000
The Secret Life of Pets Jul 8, 2016 Universal $69,000,000 $277,000,000
Mike & Dave Need Wedding Dates Jul 8, 2016 Fox $12,000,000 $32,000,000
The BFG Jul 1, 2016 Disney / DreamWorks $31,000,000* $85,000,000
The Legend of Tarzan Jul 1, 2016 Warner Bros. $23,500,000* $50,000,000
The Purge: Election Year Jul 1, 2016 Universal $21,000,000* $42,000,000
Independence Day: Resurgence Jun 24, 2016 Fox $50,000,000 $135,000,000
Free State of Jones Jun 24, 2016 STX Entertainment $15,000,000 $50,000,000
The Shallows Jun 24, 2016 Sony / Columbia $12,000,000 $29,000,000

* indicates a prediction for a four-day holiday weekend.

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