Long Range Forecast: ‘The Foreigner,’ ‘Happy Death Day,’ & ‘Marshall’

This week, three new films slated for wide release on October 13, 2017 join the Long Range Forecast. Here’s an initial look at how they’re currently tracking:

PROS:

  • The Foreigner (STX Entertainment) will mark Jackie Chan’s first live action wide release in North America since 2010’s Karate Kid remake. With director Martin Campbell (Casino Royale) behind the lens, and Pierce Brosnan also headlining the cast, this thriller could appeal to fans of A Walk Among the Tombstones and the Taken series.
  • Happy Death Day (Universal/Blumhouse) appears to be the marquee horror release of October until Jigsaw later in the month, and its PG-13 rating should attract teenage crowds. Opening on Friday the 13th should also give it a strong opening weekend as long as reviews and pre-release buzz are at least somewhat positive.
  • Marshall (Open Road Films) will see Chadwick Boseman take on another important historical figure after his turns as Jackie Robinson and James Brown in 42 and Get On Up, respectively. For now, box office expectations for Marshall are closer to the latter example, but, if the film generates early award season buzz, it could surprise in the long run.

CONS:

  • Word of mouth for Blade Runner 2049 will be key entering this weekend, particularly when it comes to The Foreigner‘s aspirations since both films will target largely male audiences. Given STX’s limited marketing reach with most of their films to date, it remains to be seen what kind of push they give for Jackie Chan’s return to live action.
  • Opening just over one month after It, which is well on its way to breaking out based on early buzz, Happy Death Day could be held back by having some of its pre-Halloween thunder stolen by the aforementioned horror pic.
  • As is common with low-to-mid tier releases during this time of year, social media buzz is generally muted across Twitter, Facebook, and Flixster for both Marshall and The Foreigner.

The Long Range Forecast:

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Location Count Distributor
8/25/2017 All Saints $4,000,000 $14,500,000 800 Sony / Columbia
8/25/2017 Birth of the Dragon $2,500,000 $5,500,000 700 BH Tilt
8/25/2017 Leap! $3,800,000 -11% $13,300,000 -11% 2,000 The Weinstein Company
9/8/2017 Home Again $12,000,000 $45,000,000 Open Road Films
9/8/2017 It $46,000,000 $115,000,000 Warner Bros. / New Line
9/15/2017 All I See Is You $6,500,000 $15,600,000 Open Road
9/15/2017 American Assassin $11,500,000 $29,000,000 Lionsgate
9/15/2017 mother! $10,500,000 $27,000,000 Paramount
9/22/2017 Friend Request n/a n/a Entertainment Studios
9/22/2017 Kingsman: The Golden Circle $39,000,000 $100,000,000 Fox
9/22/2017 The LEGO Ninjago Movie $40,000,000 $138,000,000 Warner Bros.
9/29/2017 American Made $15,000,000 $50,500,000 Universal
9/29/2017 Flatliners (2017) $11,000,000 $26,000,000 Sony / Screen Gems
9/29/2017 A Question of Faith n/a n/a Pure Flix
10/6/2017 Blade Runner 2049 $44,000,000 $115,000,000 Warner Bros.
10/6/2017 The Mountain Between Us $8,000,000 $25,000,000 Fox
10/6/2017 My Little Pony (2017) $7,500,000 $21,500,000 Lionsgate
10/13/2017 The Foreigner $10,000,000 NEW $27,700,000 NEW STX Entertainment
10/13/2017 Happy Death Day $20,000,000 NEW $40,000,000 NEW Universal / Blumhouse
10/13/2017 Marshall $12,000,000 NEW $39,000,000 NEW Open Road

Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.

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