Long Range Forecast: ‘Geostorm,’ ‘Only the Brave,’ ‘Same Kind of Different As Me,’ ‘The Snowman,’ & ‘Boo 2! A Madea Halloween’

This week’s update to the Long Range Forecast sees the addition of five new titles slated to debut on October 20, 2017. Our preliminary analyses and forecasts:


  • From director Dean Devlin (producer of the Independence Day films), Geostorm (Warner Bros.) will hope to attract fans of disaster flicks. If Gerard Butler’s fans from Olympus Has Fallen and London Has Fallen show up here, the film could mildly surprise.
  • Only the Brave (Sony/Columbia) boasts an ensemble led by Josh Brolin and Miles Teller that could appeal very well across Middle America. Based on a true story, this firefighter drama has notable sleeper potential.
  • Same Kind of Different As Me (Pure Flix) will mark the latest faith-based drama aimed at bringing out church crowds ahead of the holiday season. Its own ensemble could be an advantage toward mild success beyond that base if reviews are strong.
  • The Snowman (Universal) could be a well-timed thriller with a pre-Halloween release. Based on a preexisting novel, fans of the book and Michael Fassbender will be counted upon to drive attendance.
  • Tyler Perry’s Boo 2! A Madea Halloween (Lionsgate) aims to ride the momentum of last October’s hit predecessor. Perry’s fan base remains a reliable draw, and as one of the few comedies opening this autumn, we expect another successful run.


  • Geostorm‘s biggest hurdle to climb is the simple fact that disaster pics are long past their box office prime, with few exceptions. Initial buzz here is quiet so far and leagues behind that of San Andreas.
  • Only the Brave‘s biggest challenge may be the competitive market it enters as October is packed with mid-range, adult-leaning dramas.
  • Same Kind of Different As Me has already been subject to several release delays, and distributor Pure Flix’s past releases have often settled into a consistent range of lower-tier box office performers.
  • The Snowman doesn’t boast quite the same level of pre-release social buzz enjoyed by last year’s The Girl on the Train.
  • Boo 2! is a likely candidate to experience some drop-off from its predecessor, as is common with many comedy sequels.

This Week’s Other Changes & Notes

  • It continues to ascend as exceptionally strong pre-sales reports and social media trends further its candidacy to break out in early September..
  • American Assassin has been the recipient of positive Twitter and Facebook growth in recent days. Although that is attributable to manufactured marketing pushes, the source material’s fans could help the film carve out a respectable audience if reviews come in strong next month.
  • Speaking of improving buzz, Kingsman: The Golden Circle continues to generate very healthy social media trends. That weekend remains a crucial one for the early fall box office as LEGO Ninjago should also benefit from the severe lack of high profile animated releases since July.

The Long Range Forecast:

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Location Count Distributor
8/25/2017 Tulip Fever n/a n/a 600 The Weinstein Company
9/8/2017 Home Again $12,000,000 $45,000,000 2,800 Open Road Films
9/8/2017 It $60,000,000 30% $150,000,000 30% 3,600 Warner Bros. / New Line
9/15/2017 American Assassin $14,500,000 26% $40,000,000 38% Lionsgate
9/15/2017 mother! $10,500,000 $27,000,000 Paramount
9/22/2017 Friend Request n/a n/a Entertainment Studios
9/22/2017 Kingsman: The Golden Circle $42,000,000 8% $107,700,000 8% Fox
9/22/2017 The LEGO Ninjago Movie $42,500,000 6% $146,600,000 6% Warner Bros.
9/29/2017 American Made $15,000,000 $50,500,000 Universal
9/29/2017 Flatliners (2017) $11,000,000 $26,000,000 Sony / Screen Gems
9/29/2017 A Question of Faith n/a n/a Pure Flix
10/6/2017 Blade Runner 2049 $44,000,000 $115,000,000 Warner Bros.
10/6/2017 The Mountain Between Us $8,000,000 $25,000,000 Fox
10/6/2017 My Little Pony (2017) $7,500,000 $21,500,000 Lionsgate
10/13/2017 The Foreigner $10,000,000 $27,700,000 STX Entertainment
10/13/2017 Happy Death Day $20,000,000 $40,000,000 Universal / Blumhouse
10/13/2017 Marshall $12,000,000 $39,000,000 Open Road
10/20/2017 Geostorm $12,000,000 NEW $27,800,000 NEW Warner Bros.
10/20/2017 Only the Brave $16,000,000 NEW $55,000,000 NEW Sony / Columbia
10/20/2017 Same Kind of Different As Me $4,500,000 NEW $12,000,000 NEW Pure Flix
10/20/2017 The Snowman $11,000,000 NEW $31,000,000 NEW Universal
10/20/2017 Tyler Perry’s Boo 2! A Madea Halloween $23,500,000 NEW $59,300,000 NEW Lionsgate

Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.

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