Daniel Garris, Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.
On a weekend that is sure to be dominated by the second weekend performance of Warner’s Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, April 1 will see Pure Flix’s God’s Not Dead 2, Paramount’s Rings, The Weinstein Company’s Amityville: The Awakening and Open Road’s Collide all go into wide release.
BoxOffice feels that God’s Not Dead 2 will be the strongest performer of the bunch, especially when it comes to post-opening weekend holding power. The film will hope to follow in the footsteps of 2014’s God’s Not Dead and has been generating strong early online activity on Twitter. God’s Not Dead 2 is also likely to serve as a stronger alternative choice to Batman v Superman than any of the weekend’s other new wide releases will.
Given the potential audience overlap between the two films, it will be interesting to see whether or not either Rings or Amityville: The Awakening moves to a new release date. In addition to the two films serving as direct competition to one another, both films have already been pushed back from their previous release date and neither film has had its marketing start to kick into gear yet. If both films ultimately stay put, BoxOffice expects Rings to have the edge between the two. But we don’t expect either film to come anywhere close to the previous performances of their respective predecessors, as 2005’s The Ring Two opened with $35.1 million and went on to gross $75.9 million domestically, while The Amityville Horror (also a 2005 release) opened with $23.5 million and grossed $65.2 million in total domestically.
God’s Not Dead 2 (Pure Flix)
PROS:
– 2014’s God’s Not Dead was a surprise hit, as it opened with $9.2 million (from just 780 locations) and went on to gross $60.8 million domestically thanks to terrific holding power.
– As mentioned, God’s Not Dead 2 is performing very strong on Twitter thus far, especially for a faith-based film this far out from its release. The film has been running just 9 percent behind the Twitter activity for 13 Hours at the same point in its cycle.
CONS:
– God’s Not Dead 2 will arrive in the marketplace shortly after fellow faith-based films The Young Messiah and Miracles from Heaven. That is likely to limit potential demand for God’s Not Dead 2 a bit.
– Pure Flix’s Do You Believe? underperformed last year with a $3.6 million debut and a final domestic gross of $13.0 million. That performance is a concerning one for God’s Not Dead 2, especially since God’s Not Dead 2 has a different cast than its predecessor did.
Check out our complete long range forecast in the table below.
| Title | Release Date | Distributor | Opening Weekend | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| God’s Not Dead 2 | Apr 1, 2016 | Pure Flix | $14,000,000 | $43,000,000 |
| Rings (2016) | Apr 1, 2016 | Paramount | $13,000,000 | $29,000,000 |
| Amityville: The Awakening | Apr 1, 2016 | Weinstein / Dimension | $8,500,000 | $19,000,000 |
| Collide | Apr 1, 2016 | Open Road | $6,500,000 | $18,000,000 |
| Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice | Mar 25, 2016 | Warner Bros. | $154,000,000 | $380,000,000 |
| My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 | Mar 25, 2016 | Universal | $14,000,000 | $50,000,000 |
| The Disappointments Room | Mar 25, 2016 | Relativity Studios | $7,500,000 | $18,000,000 |
| The Divergent Series: Allegiant | Mar 18, 2016 | Lionsgate / Summit | $42,000,000 | $103,000,000 |
| Miracles from Heaven | Mar 16, 2016 | Sony / TriStar | $19,000,000 | $77,000,000 |
| 10 Cloverfield Lane | Mar 11, 2016 | Paramount | $31,000,000 | $65,000,000 |
| The Young Messiah | Mar 11, 2016 | Focus | $14,000,000 | $45,000,000 |
| The Brothers Grimsby | Mar 11, 2016 | Sony / Columbia | $12,000,000 | $27,000,000 |
| Zootopia | Mar 4, 2016 | Disney | $51,000,000 | $180,000,000 |
| London Has Fallen | Mar 4, 2016 | Focus / Gramercy | $21,000,000 | $57,000,000 |
| Whiskey Tango Foxtrot | Mar 4, 2016 | Paramount | $13,000,000 | $45,000,000 |
| Desierto | Mar 4, 2016 | STX Entertainment | $6,500,000 | $18,000,000 |
| Gods of Egypt | Feb 26, 2016 | Lionsgate / Summit | $14,500,000 | $34,000,000 |
| Triple 9 | Feb 26, 2016 | Open Road | $10,500,000 | $31,000,000 |
| Eddie the Eagle | Feb 26, 2016 | Fox | $8,000,000 | $23,000,000 |
| Risen | Feb 19, 2016 | Sony / TriStar | $15,000,000 | $43,000,000 |
| Race (2016) | Feb 19, 2016 | Focus | $11,000,000 | $33,000,000 |
| The Witch | Feb 19, 2016 | A24 | $7,000,000 | $18,000,000 |
| Deadpool | Feb 12, 2016 | Fox | $81,000,000* | $185,000,000 |
| Zoolander 2 | Feb 12, 2016 | Paramount | $23,000,000* | $50,000,000 |
| How to Be Single | Feb 12, 2016 | Warner Bros. / New Line | $20,000,000* | $40,000,000 |
* Indicates a four-day weekend.
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