Long Range Forecast: ‘Happy Death Day’ Trending Well; Update on Thanksgiving Release Shifts

This week’s edition of the Long Range Forecast is shorter than usual as the typical eight-week window reaches out to a weekend currently vacant of new releases, that being Friday, December 1.  TWC/Dimension’s Polaroid had previously been scheduled for that date, but earlier this week the studio bumped its opening up to Wednesday, November 22 (early forecasts are included in the chart below).

This Week’s Notes

  • While we aren’t updating forecasts for Happy Death Day until next week, it continues to show very healthy signs across tracking. Its Friday the 13th opening will no doubt increase front-loading to opening night, but we wouldn’t rule out an opening weekend even higher than $20 million at this point. Final forecasts to follow next week.
  • Social buzz for Marshall, as well as marketing outreach, doesn’t appear to be as strong as once hoped. The film is currently trending more closely to the likes of Detroit and The Birth of a Nation rather than fellow Chadwick Boseman-led Get On Up. With the studio’s decision to no longer open it in wide release, we’re significantly lowering forecasts.
  • The weekend of October 20 remains muddied with five films slated to open in wide release. We still expect Boo 2! to lead the weekend, although The Snowman is slowly making gains. Geostorm is tracking behind Gods of Egypt, while Only the Brave continues to post lukewarm social media growth.
  • Chappaquiddick has been slated for a Thanksgiving weekend release from Entertainment Studios. Due to their limited history as a distributor, we’re holding off on official forecasts at this time.
  • Wide release dates for Death Wish and Molly’s Game have been shifted to 2018 by their respective studios and removed from the current forecast.
  • Now slated to open ahead of Thanksgiving weekend, Polaroid is likely to misfire given the amount of competition in the November market and the horror genre’s poor history around the holiday corridor in recent years (last year’s Incarnate, for example). Still, we wouldn’t completely rule out a last-minute surge in interest closer to release if marketing and reviews can strike the right tone.

2-Month Long Range Forecast:

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Location Count Distributor
10/13/2017 The Foreigner $10,000,000 $31,000,000 12% 2,300 STXfilms
10/13/2017 Happy Death Day $20,000,000 $40,000,000 3,000 Universal / Blumhouse
10/13/2017 Marshall $6,000,000 -50% $17,900,000 -66% 800 Open Road
10/20/2017 Geostorm $11,000,000 -8% $25,500,000 -8% 3,000 Warner Bros.
10/20/2017 Only the Brave $14,000,000 -7% $48,000,000 -7% 2,900 Sony / Columbia
10/20/2017 Same Kind of Different As Me $4,000,000 -11% $10,700,000 -11% 2,000 Pure Flix
10/20/2017 The Snowman $11,500,000 5% $34,700,000 5% 2,800 Universal
10/20/2017 Tyler Perry’s Boo 2! A Madea Halloween $23,500,000 $59,300,000 2,400 Lionsgate
10/27/2017 Jigsaw $13,500,000 $29,000,000 Lionsgate
10/27/2017 Suburbicon $10,000,000 $32,000,000 Paramount
10/27/2017 Thank You for Your Service $5,000,000 $17,500,000 Universal
11/1/2017 A Bad Moms Christmas $22,000,000 $85,000,000 STXfilms
11/3/2017 Thor: Ragnarok $100,000,000 $250,000,000 Disney
11/10/2017 Daddy’s Home 2 $30,000,000 $95,000,000 Paramount
11/10/2017 Murder on the Orient Express $23,500,000 $88,000,000 5% Fox
11/17/2017 Justice League $150,000,000 $330,000,000 Warner Bros.
11/17/2017 The Star $13,000,000 $60,000,000 Sony / Columbia
11/17/2017 Wonder $16,000,000 $65,000,000 8% Lionsgate
11/22/2017 Chappaquiddick n/a NEW n/a NEW Entertainment Studios
11/22/2017 Coco $60,000,000 $270,000,000 Disney
11/22/2017 Polaroid $2,500,000 -38% $7,000,000 -13% TWC / Dimension