Long Range Forecast: ‘The Hitman’s Bodyguard’ & ‘Logan Lucky’ First Looks; ‘Despicable Me 3’ & ‘Annabelle: Creation’ Trend Upward

As our Long Range Forecast steadily inches toward the end of summer, two new films opening August 18 — and aiming for very similar audiences — join the slate in this week’s report. Given the potential crossover appeal, we wouldn’t be surprised if one of them sees a release date shift within the next two months. For now, though, we’re treating forecasts as if the two will indeed open head-to-head.

The Hitman’s Bodyguard
Lionsgate / Summit

PROS:

  • Teaming Ryan Reynolds and Samuel L. Jackson together could be a stroke of comedic genius, especially given the former’s resurgence in the wake of Deadpool‘s massive success. Gary Oldman and Salma Hayek further boost the ensemble appeal.
  • Initial trailers offer exactly what the stars’ fans have come to expect from the two leads in this genre: “hard R” profanity and humor blended with action. After a summer light on breakout comedies, this could fill a late summer void.
  • Initial social media buzz is healthy relative to most mid-range titles following recent trailer releases.

CONS:

  • Similar August releases in the past have performed well financially but fallen short of true breakout status. Unless reviews are through the roof here, that seems a likely outcome for now.
  • Opening directly against Logan Lucky, which similarly boasts a star-studded ensemble with comedic angles, could cut into the potential audience.

Logan Lucky
Bleecker Street

PROS:

  • Channing Tatum has certainly built some credentials as a potential box office draw, especially in comedy thanks to the Jump Street films. Adam Driver’s star is on the rise as well.
  • Additionally, Daniel Craig’s shift into an comedic role could be intriguing to those who know him mainly for more serious roles — namely the James Bond films.
  • Steven Soderbergh has a history of delivering well-liked features. Following a strong trailer campaign so far, his fans should turn out for this one.

CONS:

  • Social media buzz is notably quiet thus far, although part of that could be related to the distributor’s limited marketing reach (which could also be a concern closer to release).
  • Opening directly against The Hitman’s Bodyguard, which similarly boasts a star-studded ensemble with comedic angles, could cut into the potential audience.

This Week’s Changes & Other Notes

  • Strong early reviews for Despicable Me 3 are helping to increase our confidence in its potential. Those combined with healthy tracking and an inflated holiday weekend could help the franchise cross the $100 million opening weekend threshold again (following Minions‘ $115.7 million debut in July 2015).
  • The new trailer for Annabelle: Creation — along with a scattering of early reviews — suggest the franchise remains in good hands. After a summer lacking horror breakouts, the early-to-mid August debut is looking more and more promising.

Check out our complete 8-week wide release forecast below.

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Location Count Distributor
6/28/2017 Baby Driver $15,000,000 $82,500,000 3,100 Sony / TriStar
6/30/2017 Despicable Me 3 $98,000,000 14% $290,000,000 4% 4,350 Universal / Illumination
6/30/2017 The House (2017) $23,000,000 $80,000,000 3,000 Warner Bros. / New Line
7/7/2017 Spider-Man: Homecoming $125,000,000 $301,000,000 4,200 Sony / Columbia
7/14/2017 War for the Planet of the Apes $54,000,000 $150,000,000 Fox
7/14/2017 Wish Upon $10,000,000 $23,000,000 Broad Green Pictures
7/21/2017 Dunkirk $60,000,000 $240,000,000 Warner Bros.
7/21/2017 Girls Trip $17,000,000 $60,000,000 Universal
7/21/2017 Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets $24,000,000 $70,000,000 STX Entertainment
7/28/2017 Atomic Blonde $27,500,000 $82,500,000 Focus Features
7/28/2017 The Emoji Movie: Express Yourself $27,000,000 $95,000,000 Sony / Columbia
8/4/2017 The Dark Tower $42,000,000 $107,000,000 Sony / Columbia
8/4/2017 Detroit n/a n/a Annapurna Pictures
8/4/2017 An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power n/a n/a Paramount
8/4/2017 Kidnap $5,000,000 $12,000,000 Aviron
8/11/2017 Annabelle: Creation $27,000,000 17% $61,000,000 17% Warner Bros. / New Line
8/11/2017 The Glass Castle $3,500,000 $10,500,000 Lionsgate
8/11/2017 The Nut Job 2: Nutty By Nature $12,000,000 $40,000,000 Open Road
8/18/2017 The Hitman’s Bodyguard $19,000,000 NEW $57,000,000 NEW Lionsgate / Summit
8/18/2017 Logan Lucky $12,000,000 NEW $39,000,000 NEW Bleecker Street

Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.

googletag.cmd.push(function() { googletag.display('div-gpt-ad-1553617519041-1'); });

News Stories