As our Long Range Forecast steadily inches toward the end of summer, two new films opening August 18 — and aiming for very similar audiences — join the slate in this week’s report. Given the potential crossover appeal, we wouldn’t be surprised if one of them sees a release date shift within the next two months. For now, though, we’re treating forecasts as if the two will indeed open head-to-head.
The Hitman’s Bodyguard
Lionsgate / Summit
PROS:
- Teaming Ryan Reynolds and Samuel L. Jackson together could be a stroke of comedic genius, especially given the former’s resurgence in the wake of Deadpool‘s massive success. Gary Oldman and Salma Hayek further boost the ensemble appeal.
- Initial trailers offer exactly what the stars’ fans have come to expect from the two leads in this genre: “hard R” profanity and humor blended with action. After a summer light on breakout comedies, this could fill a late summer void.
- Initial social media buzz is healthy relative to most mid-range titles following recent trailer releases.
CONS:
- Similar August releases in the past have performed well financially but fallen short of true breakout status. Unless reviews are through the roof here, that seems a likely outcome for now.
- Opening directly against Logan Lucky, which similarly boasts a star-studded ensemble with comedic angles, could cut into the potential audience.
Logan Lucky
Bleecker Street
PROS:
- Channing Tatum has certainly built some credentials as a potential box office draw, especially in comedy thanks to the Jump Street films. Adam Driver’s star is on the rise as well.
- Additionally, Daniel Craig’s shift into an comedic role could be intriguing to those who know him mainly for more serious roles — namely the James Bond films.
- Steven Soderbergh has a history of delivering well-liked features. Following a strong trailer campaign so far, his fans should turn out for this one.
CONS:
- Social media buzz is notably quiet thus far, although part of that could be related to the distributor’s limited marketing reach (which could also be a concern closer to release).
- Opening directly against The Hitman’s Bodyguard, which similarly boasts a star-studded ensemble with comedic angles, could cut into the potential audience.
This Week’s Changes & Other Notes
- Strong early reviews for Despicable Me 3 are helping to increase our confidence in its potential. Those combined with healthy tracking and an inflated holiday weekend could help the franchise cross the $100 million opening weekend threshold again (following Minions‘ $115.7 million debut in July 2015).
- The new trailer for Annabelle: Creation — along with a scattering of early reviews — suggest the franchise remains in good hands. After a summer lacking horror breakouts, the early-to-mid August debut is looking more and more promising.
Check out our complete 8-week wide release forecast below.
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day Wide Opening | % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total | % Chg from Last Week | Location Count | Distributor |
| 6/28/2017 | Baby Driver | $15,000,000 | $82,500,000 | 3,100 | Sony / TriStar | ||
| 6/30/2017 | Despicable Me 3 | $98,000,000 | 14% | $290,000,000 | 4% | 4,350 | Universal / Illumination |
| 6/30/2017 | The House (2017) | $23,000,000 | $80,000,000 | 3,000 | Warner Bros. / New Line | ||
| 7/7/2017 | Spider-Man: Homecoming | $125,000,000 | $301,000,000 | 4,200 | Sony / Columbia | ||
| 7/14/2017 | War for the Planet of the Apes | $54,000,000 | $150,000,000 | Fox | |||
| 7/14/2017 | Wish Upon | $10,000,000 | $23,000,000 | Broad Green Pictures | |||
| 7/21/2017 | Dunkirk | $60,000,000 | $240,000,000 | Warner Bros. | |||
| 7/21/2017 | Girls Trip | $17,000,000 | $60,000,000 | Universal | |||
| 7/21/2017 | Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets | $24,000,000 | $70,000,000 | STX Entertainment | |||
| 7/28/2017 | Atomic Blonde | $27,500,000 | $82,500,000 | Focus Features | |||
| 7/28/2017 | The Emoji Movie: Express Yourself | $27,000,000 | $95,000,000 | Sony / Columbia | |||
| 8/4/2017 | The Dark Tower | $42,000,000 | $107,000,000 | Sony / Columbia | |||
| 8/4/2017 | Detroit | n/a | n/a | Annapurna Pictures | |||
| 8/4/2017 | An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power | n/a | n/a | Paramount | |||
| 8/4/2017 | Kidnap | $5,000,000 | $12,000,000 | Aviron | |||
| 8/11/2017 | Annabelle: Creation | $27,000,000 | 17% | $61,000,000 | 17% | Warner Bros. / New Line | |
| 8/11/2017 | The Glass Castle | $3,500,000 | $10,500,000 | Lionsgate | |||
| 8/11/2017 | The Nut Job 2: Nutty By Nature | $12,000,000 | $40,000,000 | Open Road | |||
| 8/18/2017 | The Hitman’s Bodyguard | $19,000,000 | NEW | $57,000,000 | NEW | Lionsgate / Summit | |
| 8/18/2017 | Logan Lucky | $12,000,000 | NEW | $39,000,000 | NEW | Bleecker Street |
Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.
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