As our Long Range Forecast steadily inches toward the end of summer, two new films opening August 18 — and aiming for very similar audiences — join the slate in this week’s report. Given the potential crossover appeal, we wouldn’t be surprised if one of them sees a release date shift within the next two months. For now, though, we’re treating forecasts as if the two will indeed open head-to-head.
The Hitman’s Bodyguard
Lionsgate / Summit
- Teaming Ryan Reynolds and Samuel L. Jackson together could be a stroke of comedic genius, especially given the former’s resurgence in the wake of Deadpool‘s massive success. Gary Oldman and Salma Hayek further boost the ensemble appeal.
- Initial trailers offer exactly what the stars’ fans have come to expect from the two leads in this genre: “hard R” profanity and humor blended with action. After a summer light on breakout comedies, this could fill a late summer void.
- Initial social media buzz is healthy relative to most mid-range titles following recent trailer releases.
- Similar August releases in the past have performed well financially but fallen short of true breakout status. Unless reviews are through the roof here, that seems a likely outcome for now.
- Opening directly against Logan Lucky, which similarly boasts a star-studded ensemble with comedic angles, could cut into the potential audience.
- Channing Tatum has certainly built some credentials as a potential box office draw, especially in comedy thanks to the Jump Street films. Adam Driver’s star is on the rise as well.
- Additionally, Daniel Craig’s shift into an comedic role could be intriguing to those who know him mainly for more serious roles — namely the James Bond films.
- Steven Soderbergh has a history of delivering well-liked features. Following a strong trailer campaign so far, his fans should turn out for this one.
- Social media buzz is notably quiet thus far, although part of that could be related to the distributor’s limited marketing reach (which could also be a concern closer to release).
- Opening directly against The Hitman’s Bodyguard, which similarly boasts a star-studded ensemble with comedic angles, could cut into the potential audience.
This Week’s Changes & Other Notes
- Strong early reviews for Despicable Me 3 are helping to increase our confidence in its potential. Those combined with healthy tracking and an inflated holiday weekend could help the franchise cross the $100 million opening weekend threshold again (following Minions‘ $115.7 million debut in July 2015).
- The new trailer for Annabelle: Creation — along with a scattering of early reviews — suggest the franchise remains in good hands. After a summer lacking horror breakouts, the early-to-mid August debut is looking more and more promising.
Check out our complete 8-week wide release forecast below.
|Release Date||Title||3-Day Wide Opening||% Chg from Last Week||Domestic Total||% Chg from Last Week||Location Count||Distributor|
|6/28/2017||Baby Driver||$15,000,000||$82,500,000||3,100||Sony / TriStar|
|6/30/2017||Despicable Me 3||$98,000,000||14%||$290,000,000||4%||4,350||Universal / Illumination|
|6/30/2017||The House (2017)||$23,000,000||$80,000,000||3,000||Warner Bros. / New Line|
|7/7/2017||Spider-Man: Homecoming||$125,000,000||$301,000,000||4,200||Sony / Columbia|
|7/14/2017||War for the Planet of the Apes||$54,000,000||$150,000,000||Fox|
|7/14/2017||Wish Upon||$10,000,000||$23,000,000||Broad Green Pictures|
|7/21/2017||Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets||$24,000,000||$70,000,000||STX Entertainment|
|7/28/2017||Atomic Blonde||$27,500,000||$82,500,000||Focus Features|
|7/28/2017||The Emoji Movie: Express Yourself||$27,000,000||$95,000,000||Sony / Columbia|
|8/4/2017||The Dark Tower||$42,000,000||$107,000,000||Sony / Columbia|
|8/4/2017||An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power||n/a||n/a||Paramount|
|8/11/2017||Annabelle: Creation||$27,000,000||17%||$61,000,000||17%||Warner Bros. / New Line|
|8/11/2017||The Glass Castle||$3,500,000||$10,500,000||Lionsgate|
|8/11/2017||The Nut Job 2: Nutty By Nature||$12,000,000||$40,000,000||Open Road|
|8/18/2017||The Hitman’s Bodyguard||$19,000,000||NEW||$57,000,000||NEW||Lionsgate / Summit|
|8/18/2017||Logan Lucky||$12,000,000||NEW||$39,000,000||NEW||Bleecker Street|
Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.