Long Range Forecast: ‘It’ Promises September Scares, Will ‘Home Again’ Counter-Program?; ‘Dunkirk’ Buzz Building

test
test

Our early look at September’s release slate continues this week with two new additions to the Long Range Forecast:

It
(Warner Bros. / New Line)

PROS:

  • Legions of Stephen King fans have awaited a modern take on the property, one of the famed author’s most popular works.
  • Social media around the first trailer’s release was ecstatic, delivering a very impressive number of views across multiple platforms.
  • The film’s official Facebook page is already trending ahead the pace of 2014’s Annabelle.
  • The lack of breakouts in the horror genre so far in 2017 has left the target audience hungry for scares. Combined with the industry’s increased adoption of utilizing the year-round calendar for high profile films, this could be a standout September performer along the lines of Insidious: Chapter 2.

CONS:

  • Opening one week into the typically slow month of September will always be a slight concern as audiences come down from the summer movie rush (then again, they may ready to head back after what looks to be a weak August).
  • Social media tracking will naturally be quite challenging given the film’s generic title. As such, Twitter trends will be intriguing to watch.

Home Again
(Open Road Films)

PROS:

  • The combination of Reese Witherspoon and writer/director Hallie Meyers-Shyer (daughter of Nancy Meyers) could turn into this an appealing rom-com for women.
  • With a number of male-leaning films slated for late August and September, there’s little in the way of direct competition for the target audience.

CONS:

  • Although her mother’s influence could be very helpful among fans of It’s ComplicatedThe Intern, and The Holiday, Meyers-Shyer’s pull as a filmmaker is untested since this is her debut as both a writer and director.
  • We expect a somewhat back-loaded run since It is likely to attract a large share of date night and female audiences itself on the same opening weekend.

This Week’s Changes & Other Notes

  • Dunkirk‘s social media activity continues to impress in a huge way ahead of next week’s opening. Although there are several caveats to this comparison, the film’s Twitter activity is significantly ahead of the pace of films like GravityThe MartianMad Max: Fury Road, and American Sniper.
  • Girls Trip continues to trend upward as an early wave of positive reviews back up the comedy’s increasingly healthy social media footprint.
  • The Emoji Movie has been given an uptick following Despicable Me 3‘s performance coming under a bit below expectations, which could help the former title’s ability to court parents with young kids in summer’s final month.

The Forecast:

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Location Count Distributor
7/21/2017 Dunkirk $55,500,000 11% $220,000,000 6% 3,600 Warner Bros.
7/21/2017 Girls Trip $20,000,000 5% $70,000,000 5% 2,500 Universal
7/21/2017 Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets $18,500,000 $49,000,000 -9% 3,200 STX Entertainment
7/28/2017 Atomic Blonde $27,500,000 $82,500,000 3,000 Focus Features
7/28/2017 The Emoji Movie: Express Yourself $29,000,000 7% $102,000,000 7% 3,400 Sony / Columbia
8/4/2017 The Dark Tower $42,000,000 $107,000,000 Sony / Columbia
8/4/2017 Detroit n/a n/a Annapurna Pictures
8/4/2017 An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power n/a n/a Paramount
8/4/2017 Kidnap $5,000,000 $12,000,000 Aviron
8/11/2017 Annabelle: Creation $27,000,000 $61,000,000 Warner Bros. / New Line
8/11/2017 The Glass Castle $3,500,000 $10,500,000 Lionsgate
8/11/2017 The Nut Job 2: Nutty By Nature $12,000,000 $40,000,000 Open Road
8/18/2017 The Hitman’s Bodyguard $19,000,000 $57,000,000 Lionsgate / Summit
8/18/2017 Logan Lucky $12,000,000 $39,000,000 Bleecker Street
8/25/2017 All Saints $4,000,000 $12,000,000 Sony / Columbia
8/25/2017 Birth of the Dragon $2,500,000 $5,500,000 BH Tilt
8/25/2017 Crown Heights n/a n/a Amazon Studio / IFC Films
8/25/2017 Polaroid $9,000,000 $23,500,000 TWC / Dimension
8/25/2017 Tulip Fever n/a n/a Weinstein Company
8/30/2017 Leap! $4,500,000 $15,800,000 The Weinstein Company
9/1/2017 Renegades $4,000,000 $9,500,000 STX Entertainment
9/1/2017 Unlocked n/a n/a Lionsgate Premiere
9/8/2017 Home Again $12,000,000 NEW $45,000,000 NEW Open Road Films
9/8/2017 It $40,000,000 NEW $100,000,000 NEW Warner Bros. / New Line

Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.

News Stories