Long Range Forecast — July 2, 2025
Jurassic World Rebirth | Universal
Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $100M – $120M (3-Day); $110M – $130M (4-Day); $130M – $150M (5-Day)
The Jurassic World franchise has proved to be a consistent earner for Universal, with the three films—Jurassic World, Jurassic World Fallen Kingdom, and Jurassic World Dominion—racking up $1.4B at the domestic box office ($3.9M globally). We’re expecting this new entry to continue this trend, helped along by prime placement the Wednesday before Fourth of July weekend.
Jurassic World Rebirth is the first of the franchise to come out in early July—earlier entries all came out in June—giving it a unique opportunity to draw in moviegoers enjoying the long weekend. Other studios have given the long holiday weekend a wide berth, leaving Jurassic World Rebirth as the sole wide release amidst a crop of June holdovers like F1: The Movie or M3GAN 2.0.
Over the last few years, the first full weekend in July has been somewhat unpredictable. In 2024, 2022, and 2017 entries in the Despicable Me franchise—Despicable Me 4 ($75M domestic opening), Minions: The Rise of Gru ($107M domestic opening), and Despicable Me 3 ($72.4M domestic opening), respectively—dominated as expected. Spider-Man: Far From Home ($92.5M domestic opening) took the crown in 2019, again as predicted. In both 2021 and 2015, a pair of new releases—The Boss Baby 2: Family Business ($16M domestic opening) and The Forever Purge ($12.5M domestic opening) in 2021; Terminator: Genisys ($27M domestic opening) and Magic Mike XXL ($12.8M domestic opening) in 2015—failed to topple holdovers. And in 2023, though Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny ($60.3M domestic opening) ruled the holiday weekend, the big story was the burgeoning success of underdog The Sound of Freedom ($14.2M opening weekend), which would ultimately earn more money than Dial of Destiny in the domestic market.
This year, Jurassic World Rebirth looks to have an easy road to the #1 spot, with no The Sound of Freedom-esque spoiler waiting in the wings and the second-week holdovers (M3GAN 2.0 and F1: The Movie) not expected to open anywhere close to $100M. The real challenge for Rebirth will come in chase weeks, when a bevy of new blockbusters—including Superman, Smurfs, and The Fantastic Four: First Steps—show up to compete for audience attention and PLF screens.
Tracking Updates [as of June 27]
| 6/27 | M3GAN 2.0 | $18M – $25M | Universal/Blumhouse |
| 6/27 | F1: The Movie | $45M – $55M | Warner Bros./Apple Original Films |
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