This week’s Long Range Forecast again focuses primarily on several shifting trends across films opening in the next few weeks, in addition to a first look at one title opening on December 8 — one week before the juggernaut that is sure to be Star Wars: The Last Jedi.
PROS:
- Just Getting Started (Broad Green Pictures) brings together Morgan Freeman, Tommy Lee Jones, and Rene Russo in an action comedy that could appeal well to older audiences, ala the likes of Going In Style and Last Vegas. Reviews and distribution plans will be key to the film’s long term prospects, but as a counter-programming option in the heart of holiday season, we expect it to perform on par with the aforementioned titles.
CONS:
- One of the bigger question marks around Just Getting Started will be its distributor’s release strategy. The studio is still finding its footing after the disappointing runs of Wish Upon over the summer and Bad Santa 2 last year. The hope is that this title will at least be able to perform well relative to its presumably low budget.
This Week’s Changes & Other Notes
- October 20’s releases continue to indicate signs of opening within a close proximity to each other. The exception of Boo 2! A Madea Halloween remains relatively strong, although we still expect it to decline from the first Boo!‘s debut. Only the Brave‘s forecast has slightly decreased due to recent social media growth, however, early screenings this weekend could again shift things in its favor before next Friday.
- Jigsaw continues to show improving signs ahead of release later this month.
- Thor: Ragnarok‘s marketing campaign has heated up early, with unofficial word from industry screenings suggesting this is another Marvel title audiences are going to fall in love with. If official reviews surge into the stratosphere when the embargo lifts, this may be a forecast that continues climbing upward.
2-Month Long Range Forecast:
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day Wide Opening | % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total | % Chg from Last Week | Location Count | Distributor |
| 10/20/2017 | Geostorm | $12,000,000 | 9% | $27,800,000 | 9% | 3,000 | Warner Bros. |
| 10/20/2017 | Only the Brave | $13,000,000 | -7% | $44,600,000 | -7% | 2,400 | Sony / Columbia |
| 10/20/2017 | Same Kind of Different As Me | $3,750,000 | -6% | $10,000,000 | -6% | 1,200 | Pure Flix |
| 10/20/2017 | The Snowman | $11,500,000 | $34,700,000 | 2,800 | Universal | ||
| 10/20/2017 | Tyler Perry’s Boo 2! A Madea Halloween | $22,000,000 | -8% | $57,000,000 | -2% | 2,250 | Lionsgate |
| 10/27/2017 | Jigsaw | $15,000,000 | 11% | $32,200,000 | 11% | 3,000 | Lionsgate |
| 10/27/2017 | Suburbicon | $10,000,000 | $32,000,000 | 2,900 | Paramount | ||
| 10/27/2017 | Thank You for Your Service | $5,000,000 | $17,500,000 | 2,000 | Universal | ||
| 11/1/2017 | A Bad Moms Christmas | $22,000,000 | $85,000,000 | STXfilms | |||
| 11/3/2017 | Thor: Ragnarok | $105,000,000 | 5% | $269,000,000 | 8% | Disney | |
| 11/10/2017 | Daddy’s Home 2 | $30,000,000 | $95,000,000 | Paramount | |||
| 11/10/2017 | Murder on the Orient Express | $23,500,000 | $88,000,000 | Fox | |||
| 11/17/2017 | Justice League | $150,000,000 | $330,000,000 | Warner Bros. | |||
| 11/17/2017 | The Star | $13,000,000 | $60,000,000 | Sony / Columbia | |||
| 11/17/2017 | Wonder | $16,000,000 | $65,000,000 | Lionsgate | |||
| 11/22/2017 | Coco | $60,000,000 | $270,000,000 | Disney | |||
| 11/22/2017 | The Man Who Invented Christmas | n/a | NEW | n/a | NEW | Bleecker Street | |
| 11/22/2017 | Polaroid | $2,500,000 | $7,000,000 | TWC / Dimension | |||
| 12/1/2017 | (no films scheduled currently) | ||||||
| 12/8/2017 | Just Getting Started | $8,000,000 | NEW | $36,000,000 | NEW | Broad Green Pictures |
Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report
Share this post