Long Range Forecast: ‘Leap!,’ ‘Renegades’ Set for Labor Day; ‘War for the Planet of the Apes,’ ‘Dunkirk,’ & More Updates

This week’s edition of the Long Range Forecast takes a first look at September, which is currently slated to see two new wide releases in Leap! and Renegades.


  • Leap! (The Weinstein Company) is positioned to offer families an animated option over Labor Day weekend. The film has performed fairly well overseas, notably in its home country of France. The studio delayed its North American release earlier this year to capitalize on positive reviews in a less competitive market at the end of summer.
  • Renegades (STX Entertainment) will hope to buck the trend of under-performing action/thrillers that have opened at the end of summer in recent years. Star J.K. Simmons is the best bet toward attracting the film’s target adult male audience.


  • Leap! is driving minimal social media engagement up to this point with a mere 2,300+ likes on its Facebook page and muted Twitter activity. The recent history of Labor Day openers in the states — as well as the fact that most kids will be going back to school around that time — work against the film’s prospects.
  • Likewise, Renegades also has history against it (as mentioned) in terms of past Labor Day releases. Social media conversation is similarly muted for that film as well.

Other Notes & Changes

  • Although the film is earning rave reviews and looks to be another sure fire success in the franchise, social media trends and potential audience overlap with surrounding competition for War for the Planet of the Apes are bringing down our expectations slightly.
  • Traditional industry tracking for Dunkirk is more conservative right now due to the film’s nature as an original film, as well as surrounding competition remaining a factor for immediate interest/awareness. However, social media buzz remains far more robust than that of Interstellar (although likely boosted somewhat by Harry Styles fans and U.K. audiences). We expect general audience interest to steadily increase over the next two weeks, particularly after the review embargo drops on Monday, July 17.
  • Girls Trip is trending very well on both Facebook and Twitter, pointing to signs of a strong counter-programmer against the weekend’s male-heavy releases.
  • Valerian continues to give us pause with mixed tracking signals and direct competition against the trifecta of Spider-Man: HomecomingWar for the Planet of the Apes, and Dunkirk.
  • Lionsgate Premiere has also slated Unlocked to open on Friday, September 1, however we are excluding it from the forecast due to its nature as a hybrid VOD-theatrical release.

The 8-Week Forecast:

Release Date Title 3-Day Wide Opening % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total % Chg from Last Week Location Count Distributor
7/14/2017 The Big Sick (Wide Expansion) n/a n/a n/a Lionsgate
7/14/2017 War for the Planet of the Apes $51,000,000 -15% $140,000,000 -15% 3,800 Fox
7/14/2017 Wish Upon $8,500,000 $19,500,000 2,500 Broad Green Pictures
7/21/2017 Dunkirk $50,000,000 -13% $208,000,000 -13% 3,700 Warner Bros.
7/21/2017 Girls Trip $19,000,000 12% $67,000,000 12% 2,900 Universal
7/21/2017 Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets $18,500,000 -23% $54,000,000 -23% 3,200 STX Entertainment
7/28/2017 Atomic Blonde $27,500,000 $82,500,000 Focus Features
7/28/2017 The Emoji Movie: Express Yourself $27,000,000 $95,000,000 Sony / Columbia
8/4/2017 The Dark Tower $42,000,000 $107,000,000 Sony / Columbia
8/4/2017 Detroit n/a n/a Annapurna Pictures
8/4/2017 An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power n/a n/a Paramount
8/4/2017 Kidnap $5,000,000 $12,000,000 Aviron
8/11/2017 Annabelle: Creation $27,000,000 $61,000,000 Warner Bros. / New Line
8/11/2017 The Glass Castle $3,500,000 $10,500,000 Lionsgate
8/11/2017 The Nut Job 2: Nutty By Nature $12,000,000 $40,000,000 Open Road
8/18/2017 The Hitman’s Bodyguard $19,000,000 $57,000,000 Lionsgate / Summit
8/18/2017 Logan Lucky $12,000,000 $39,000,000 Bleecker Street
8/25/2017 All Saints $4,000,000 $12,000,000 Sony / Columbia
8/25/2017 Birth of the Dragon $2,500,000 $5,500,000 BH Tilt
8/25/2017 Crown Heights n/a n/a Amazon Studio / IFC Films
8/25/2017 Polaroid $9,000,000 $23,500,000 TWC / Dimension
8/25/2017 Tulip Fever n/a n/a Weinstein Company
8/30/2017 Leap! $4,500,000 NEW $15,800,000 NEW The Weinstein Company
9/1/2017 Renegades $4,000,000 NEW $9,500,000 NEW STX Entertainment
9/1/2017 Unlocked n/a NEW n/a NEW Lionsgate Premiere

Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.

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