This week’s edition of the Long Range Forecast takes a first look at September, which is currently slated to see two new wide releases in Leap! and Renegades.
PROS:
- Leap! (The Weinstein Company) is positioned to offer families an animated option over Labor Day weekend. The film has performed fairly well overseas, notably in its home country of France. The studio delayed its North American release earlier this year to capitalize on positive reviews in a less competitive market at the end of summer.
- Renegades (STX Entertainment) will hope to buck the trend of under-performing action/thrillers that have opened at the end of summer in recent years. Star J.K. Simmons is the best bet toward attracting the film’s target adult male audience.
CONS:
- Leap! is driving minimal social media engagement up to this point with a mere 2,300+ likes on its Facebook page and muted Twitter activity. The recent history of Labor Day openers in the states — as well as the fact that most kids will be going back to school around that time — work against the film’s prospects.
- Likewise, Renegades also has history against it (as mentioned) in terms of past Labor Day releases. Social media conversation is similarly muted for that film as well.
Other Notes & Changes
- Although the film is earning rave reviews and looks to be another sure fire success in the franchise, social media trends and potential audience overlap with surrounding competition for War for the Planet of the Apes are bringing down our expectations slightly.
- Traditional industry tracking for Dunkirk is more conservative right now due to the film’s nature as an original film, as well as surrounding competition remaining a factor for immediate interest/awareness. However, social media buzz remains far more robust than that of Interstellar (although likely boosted somewhat by Harry Styles fans and U.K. audiences). We expect general audience interest to steadily increase over the next two weeks, particularly after the review embargo drops on Monday, July 17.
- Girls Trip is trending very well on both Facebook and Twitter, pointing to signs of a strong counter-programmer against the weekend’s male-heavy releases.
- Valerian continues to give us pause with mixed tracking signals and direct competition against the trifecta of Spider-Man: Homecoming, War for the Planet of the Apes, and Dunkirk.
- Lionsgate Premiere has also slated Unlocked to open on Friday, September 1, however we are excluding it from the forecast due to its nature as a hybrid VOD-theatrical release.
The 8-Week Forecast:
| Release Date | Title | 3-Day Wide Opening | % Chg from Last Week | Domestic Total | % Chg from Last Week | Location Count | Distributor |
| 7/14/2017 | The Big Sick (Wide Expansion) | n/a | n/a | n/a | Lionsgate | ||
| 7/14/2017 | War for the Planet of the Apes | $51,000,000 | -15% | $140,000,000 | -15% | 3,800 | Fox |
| 7/14/2017 | Wish Upon | $8,500,000 | $19,500,000 | 2,500 | Broad Green Pictures | ||
| 7/21/2017 | Dunkirk | $50,000,000 | -13% | $208,000,000 | -13% | 3,700 | Warner Bros. |
| 7/21/2017 | Girls Trip | $19,000,000 | 12% | $67,000,000 | 12% | 2,900 | Universal |
| 7/21/2017 | Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets | $18,500,000 | -23% | $54,000,000 | -23% | 3,200 | STX Entertainment |
| 7/28/2017 | Atomic Blonde | $27,500,000 | $82,500,000 | Focus Features | |||
| 7/28/2017 | The Emoji Movie: Express Yourself | $27,000,000 | $95,000,000 | Sony / Columbia | |||
| 8/4/2017 | The Dark Tower | $42,000,000 | $107,000,000 | Sony / Columbia | |||
| 8/4/2017 | Detroit | n/a | n/a | Annapurna Pictures | |||
| 8/4/2017 | An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power | n/a | n/a | Paramount | |||
| 8/4/2017 | Kidnap | $5,000,000 | $12,000,000 | Aviron | |||
| 8/11/2017 | Annabelle: Creation | $27,000,000 | $61,000,000 | Warner Bros. / New Line | |||
| 8/11/2017 | The Glass Castle | $3,500,000 | $10,500,000 | Lionsgate | |||
| 8/11/2017 | The Nut Job 2: Nutty By Nature | $12,000,000 | $40,000,000 | Open Road | |||
| 8/18/2017 | The Hitman’s Bodyguard | $19,000,000 | $57,000,000 | Lionsgate / Summit | |||
| 8/18/2017 | Logan Lucky | $12,000,000 | $39,000,000 | Bleecker Street | |||
| 8/25/2017 | All Saints | $4,000,000 | $12,000,000 | Sony / Columbia | |||
| 8/25/2017 | Birth of the Dragon | $2,500,000 | $5,500,000 | BH Tilt | |||
| 8/25/2017 | Crown Heights | n/a | n/a | Amazon Studio / IFC Films | |||
| 8/25/2017 | Polaroid | $9,000,000 | $23,500,000 | TWC / Dimension | |||
| 8/25/2017 | Tulip Fever | n/a | n/a | Weinstein Company | |||
| 8/30/2017 | Leap! | $4,500,000 | NEW | $15,800,000 | NEW | The Weinstein Company | |
| 9/1/2017 | Renegades | $4,000,000 | NEW | $9,500,000 | NEW | STX Entertainment | |
| 9/1/2017 | Unlocked | n/a | NEW | n/a | NEW | Lionsgate Premiere |
Shawn Robbins and Alex Edghill contributed to this report.
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