Long Range Forecast — June 6, 2025
From the World of John Wick: Ballerina | Lionsgate
Domestic Opening Weekend Range: $35M – $45M
Finally coming to theaters during the first weekend of June, the John Wick spinoff Ballerina–or, to give its full title, From the World of John Wick: Ballerina—has gone through several delays over the years, with reports of John Wick director Chad Stahelski taking over the creative director of new action sequences in reshoots. Lionsgate is putting a lot of effort into this title, which should be a bright spot for the studio following a lackluster period that’s seen only two films—The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes in November 2023 and John Wick: Chapter 4 in March 2023—open over $20M in the last two-and-a-half years.
An opening weekend in the $35M – $45M range puts Ballerina in the middle of the John Wick pack, above the first film ($14.4M domestic opening, $43M domestic total), either above or below John Wick: Chapter 2 ($30.4M domestic opening, $92M domestic total), and below Chapters 3 ($56.8M domestic opening, $171M domestic total) and 4 ($73.8M domestic opening, $187.1M domestic total).
Ballerina is the first film in the series to debut in the thick of summer, with previous installments having come out during the typically quieter months of October, February, May, and March, respectively. As such, Ballerina will be up against holdover weeks for several action-adjacent titles from earlier in the summer, namely Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning and Karate Kid: Legends.
Ballerina will have an easier time competing, and our predicted debut will go up, if it’s revealed in the weeks leading up to its debut that its connection to the Wick franchise is stronger than has previously been revealed from marketing. An underperformance would raise alarm bells for the three John Wick installments announced by Lionsgate at this year’s CinemaCon, one a spinoff starring (and directed by) martial arts legend Donnie Yen, reprising his role from the fourth film; one an animated prequel; and one the fifth installment in the main John Wick series.
Ballerina will also be a test for star Ana de Armas, who has been prominently featured in ensembles (Knives Out, also released by Lionsgate; Blade Runner 2049; No Time to Die) but has yet to lead a theatrically released film; she was either a lead or co-lead in 2022’s Blonde (for which she received an Oscar nomination), 2023’s Ghosted, and 2022’s Deep Water, but those were all streaming releases. Ballerina director Len Wiseman has worked mostly in TV since helming 2012’s Total Recall remake, though prior to that he made his mark on the realm of female-led action movies with the Underworld franchise. The last of these, 2016’s Underworld: Blood Wars, opened to $13.6M en route to a $30.3M domestic total; other female-led action movies to come out within the last decade include 2017’s Atomic Blonde ($18.2M domestic opening, $51.6M domestic total) and Wonder Woman ($103.2M domestic opening, $412.8M domestic total), 2018’s Proud Mary ($9.9M domestic opening, $20.8M domestic total), and 2022’s The 355 ($4.6M domestic opening, $14.5M domestic total).
Tracking Updates [as of May 9]
| 5/16 | Final Destination: Bloodlines | $48M – $60M | Warner Bros. |
| 5/16 | Hurry Up Tomorrow | $2M – $4M | Lionsgate |
| 5/23 | Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning | $65M – $75M (3-Day) $75M – $100M (4-Day) | Paramount |
| 5/23 | Friendship (Wide) | $2M – $4M | A24 |
| 5/23 | Lilo & Stitch | $140M – $170M (3-Day) $170M – $210M (4-Day) | Disney |
| 5/23 | The Last Rodeo | $3M – $5M | Angel Studios |
| 5/30 | Karate Kid: Legends | $28M – $40M | Sony / Columbia |
| 5/30 | Bring Her Back | $4M – $6M | A24 |
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